yoda Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I'd take my 2" and run on this GFS run I know much is probably sleet, but I wouldn't mind having some snow to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 3:56 PM, osfan24 said: It looks pretty mixy though doesn't it? Doesn't look like much, if any snow? Expand At 1pm 850s are -4 around Baltimore and -5 to -6 in NEMD. I think a good bit of that is snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 3:54 PM, losetoa6 said: NE Md gets the goods this run . Decent qpf ne Md as well. Edit A few inches of snow it appears up that way . Expand looking at temps. we stay cold until 21z. 850 is at 0 by then. so maybe we can hang on to the temps and score a couple inches. precip is .4 for us by 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 3:59 PM, losetoa6 said: Here's the sounding for N. Harford co. At 18z Saturday. Looks like snow Expand that dry air tho. been worried about that all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 3:54 PM, WxUSAF said: Gfs is actually pretty thumpy. Especially for C and NE MD. Expand Yeah, far cry from what we saw at the beginning of the week but the precip gets a bit more out front and covers the region more fully. Still mostly not snow but better than nothing. Also, 06z Euro showed a brief transition back to snow for NW MD after the mix/sleet/freezing precipitation. Maybe if we can get cold enough we can trend more that way and recover some more snowfall from the other precip types later on in the event. Probably won’t help in Baltimore but there aren’t many other things giving me hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 3:58 PM, Baltimorewx said: At 1pm 850s are -4 around Baltimore and -5 to -6 in NEMD. I think a good bit of that is snow Expand The trouble is above 850. Use soundings and look at the 800mb level. Warm nose isn't strong but it's there. We can get lots of sleet with 850s below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 4:03 PM, Bob Chill said: The trouble is above 850. Use soundings and look at the 800mb level. Warm nose isn't strong but it's there. We can get lots of sleet with 850s below zero Expand good example -- id probably be mixing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Other than the Nam the trend for 12z has been good so far with the icon and GFS both showing some improvements. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 4:08 PM, losetoa6 said: Rimed flakes ....silver dollars Expand last hurrah before the flip to 35 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 4:10 PM, losetoa6 said: I doubt 35 ever comes . Expand maybe for you. i could see myself getting close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Well at least there’s a glimmer of hope with the gfs trends. All I would like is enough white that can survive the day and have a little covering heading into colder temps next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 4:10 PM, mappy said: maybe for you. i could see myself getting close to that. Expand Well with your elevation, you’re much closer to the sun. So that makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 4:18 PM, Scraff said: Well with your elevation, you’re much closer to the sun. So that makes perfect sense. Expand it does until you figure that losetoa6 has more elevation than me. doesn't make much sense then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 4:15 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Well at least there’s a glimmer of hope with the gfs trends. All I would like is enough white that can survive the day and have a little covering heading into colder temps next week. Expand Looking at h5, the trough is just a tad flatter, and the downstream ridge is slightly less amped. Seems to be the difference this run, and allows a bit more of a thump further south. Maybe a mini trend as game time approaches? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 WB 12Z GFS Winter Precip. Maps. Much better than the NAM. Congrats to my friends in NE MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 12Z EURO WB Winter Precip. Maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 doesn't look too terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Euro a tick better vs 0z. More robust with that thin initial band that goes through early in the morning and then gets precip in quicker when it’s still cold later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 6:15 PM, H2O said: doesn't look too terrible Expand its blah. i liked the euro on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 6:15 PM, mappy said: its blah. i liked the euro on monday. Expand I liked the GFS from when it had the most snow. But then the models remembered that its not supposed to snow this winter per Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 6:15 PM, mappy said: its blah. i liked the euro on monday. Expand It's not even really worth the chase I was considering - have to drive almost to NY to get to decent snow. This winter kinda does blow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Can we just stick a fork in this thread? Maybe models will trend in the right direction, but let's just move on to Jan 24th, start that thread.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 6:17 PM, H2O said: I liked the GFS from when it had the most snow. But then the models remembered that its not supposed to snow this winter per Ji Expand lol On 1/16/2020 at 6:25 PM, North Balti Zen said: It's not even really worth the chase I was considering - have to drive almost to NY to get to decent snow. This winter kinda does blow at this point. Expand its been a sad year, that is for sure. but any wintry stuff is good! On 1/16/2020 at 6:33 PM, CentralVaNATS said: Can we just stick a fork in this thread? Maybe models will trend in the right direction, but let's just move on to Jan 24th, start that thread. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Expand no 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I don't get you people. Yes, this storm isn't going to be a lot. Yes, it was better a few days ago. But some people in our area WILL see some frozen stuff so it matters to them. You don't like it? Dont post. I'll take whatever falls. Right now its small differences on each model but the consensus is there. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Ouch, Euro not really budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 6:42 PM, H2O said: I don't get you people. Yes, this storm isn't going to be a lot. Yes, it was better a few days ago. But some people in our area WILL see some frozen stuff so it matters to them. You don't like it? Dont post. I'll take whatever falls. Right now its small differences on each model but the consensus is there. Expand i often forget how DC centric this subforum is. If the majority of I-95 aren't seeing snow, they could care less. meanwhile, even the euro gives me some snow. suck it haters. 5 1 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Models don’t matter. A moderate to strong low like that will send waa moisture our way. They almost always do and it’s the wrong idea from the models that it won't this time. What that means afterward I can’t say but there will be a fast onset of snow/sleet for DC of steady-moderate duration and intensity and then what happens next is what happens next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 6:33 PM, CentralVaNATS said: Can we just stick a fork in this thread? Maybe models will trend in the right direction, but let's just move on to Jan 24th, start that thread. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Expand Can we do a big boo hoo instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 6:54 PM, WEATHER53 said: Models don’t matter. A moderate to strong low like that will send waa moisture our way. They almost always do and it’s the wrong idea from the models that it won't this time. What that means afterward I can’t say but there will be a fast onset of snow/sleet for DC of steady-moderate duration and intensity and then what happens next is what happens next Expand But if the models don’t matter, then why assume the low will be as strong as modeled? I assume you mean that their depiction of WAA precip doesn’t matter because they often have trouble with it. Just trying to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 6:33 PM, CentralVaNATS said: Can we just stick a fork in this thread? Maybe models will trend in the right direction, but let's just move on to Jan 24th, start that thread. Expand no. That thread doesn't get started until Jan 22nd because any earlier then we may as well just have this thread on repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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