WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: What are you looking at? Solid CAD signature in the model. He’s looking at whatever the maps at TT tell him. He’s downplayed the whole event and is now looking for anything that will make him appear to right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He’s looking at whatever the maps at TT tell him. He’s downplayed the whole event and is now looking for anything that will make him appear to right. Unreal. We’ve been saying it all along about the icon on TT. Posts like that just muddle the forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 38 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 18z 12k NAM holds serve, bit more energized than 12z. Moderate snow to start then to mix, break then freezing rain. Not bad considering where we were 24 hours ago. That said, the 3K is more reliable than 12K no? 3K will be in range tommorw morning i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: That said, the 3K is more reliable than 12K no? 3K will be in range tommorw morning i guess 12k is ok, bit wet, but more so the pattern change with more vorticity leading ahead of the main system out west and a pronounced cold wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Unreal. We’ve been saying it all along about the icon on TT. Posts like that just muddle the forum. Weather.us shows ice on the significant weather parameter for the icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 guys the front thump 3k is clearly a lot drier, a met just confirmed this JFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: guys the front thump 3k is clearly a lot drier, a met just confirmed this JFC The “thump” doesn’t cone until about 12z Saturday. The 3k runs only to 6z Saturday. Is your met psychic? Sees the future? Oops, sorry I forgot the “JFC” 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: guys the front thump 3k is clearly a lot drier, a met just confirmed this JFC 3k NAM shouldn’t even be looked at in this range. Precip isn’t even close to our area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 For the weeenies and non-experts out there.......can you please refrain from posting definitive statements re model runs? If you have to ask whether you are one of the experienced posters, the answer is NO. We have plenty of experts who can handle the analysis and mixing in bad analysis just causes confusion. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 27 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: guys the front thump 3k is clearly a lot drier, a met just confirmed this JFC You weren't addressing dry vs wet in your post. You said it showed all rain. (the ICON at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The “thump” doesn’t cone until about 12z Saturday. The 3k runs only to 6z Saturday. Is your met psychic? Sees the future? Oops, sorry I forgot the “JFC” You’re making me proud. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18Z GFS sleet map accumulation WB. The snow map is an inch or less. There are also pockets of light freezing rain accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 .2" of sleet is a big ole nothingburger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Seems prudent to monitor the latest forecasts for icy conditions Saturday/Saturday night. No one is getting snowed in around the DMV this weekend. But what do I know, I’m just a lawyer with a weather hobby. i would also add as a fellow federal employee that while the NWS is conservative, they usually get it right within 48 hours or so of an event. They know the analogs and have in-house methodology to hone in on a forecast. Plus they have the added pressure to get it right with headquarters in their region. Believe me they want to get it correct so they don’t have to hear about it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 54 minutes ago, Mersky said: Like your weather posts?? not a big fan of you but this post is spot on. well done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mersky said: I am trying to be good Take what I said as a compliment 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 hours ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman is the best poster...not in the Mid Atlantic Sub Forum but the entire Board. His combination of ridiculous meteorology knowledge and his ability to teach it where its understandable(hello isotherm/HM) and then his sense of humor to boot. And i dont say this lightly because Bob Chill is easily in the top 5 on the board. We are pretty lucky to have what we have here....the philly board has Ralph Wiggum lol:) And I thought I was smart from being able to read IKEA instructions and understand them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 This was my write up on my weather page. I’m not going to share the images but it was the 850 temps on the GFS. Update on Saturday...I want to be more specific on what is going on and what may happen to make you understand a little so bare with me, this is long. So, the track of this storm that is going to go WELL west of our area is typically not favorable for wintry precipitation around these parts because southerly flow brings in warm air. But high pressure that I have circled in the last image is going to cause a cold Friday night and initially cold Saturday morning. That’s why I’ve been saying the earlier the precipitation comes in, the better. But eventually this warmer air coming from the south, wins out. 3 images here, the first is from 10am-1pm Saturday and shows generally light precipitation entering the area. The solid black line in these photos is the “32 degree line” in the upper atmosphere. Once this line pass any specific location, generally speaking, it cannon snow or sleet anymore and precipitation is rain or freezing rain. As you can see, as of 1pm that line has already crossed DC but it may still be cold enough for snow or sleet in Baltimore and pointe N&E. The next image is 4pm and this line has crossed Baltimore City so it’s now freezing rain or rain at that time and finally 7pm it’s crossed the entire state. So the problem we’re dealing with in terms of snow is a rapidly warming upper atmosphere the later in the day it gets. That combined with most models holding precipitation off until about 10am or later, equals not a great set up for an extended period of snow. If we can get this in earlier, then snow potential increases. I hope this makes you understand more. At this point, the best call is for 1” or less from I-95 and south. And perhaps up to 2” for near the PA line. Then a coating of sleet and perhaps extended ice to the north of 95. Cities, mostly plain rain after initial snow/sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Its come to this.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Its come to this.. You’ve contributed a lot over the last few days 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 WB winter precip maps NAM 12k at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 00z NAM is a pretty decent wintry event, especially for western areas. CAD really looking entrenched east of the Apps. Deep Creek gets 0.6-0.7” of frozen QPF on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Wow I thought this thread had died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The nam gives me 1.5" of sleet. That would be rare. Ussually sleet is short lived during the transistion from snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam implies an all snow to sleet fest here . Hardly any zrain. 2m temps below freezing through like 9z Sun . Juiced up a bit towards Charles town, out near Winchester areas and eastern shore Yeah. It is actually somewhat interesting out here in the Winchester area. Still time for improvement as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 00z ICON continues to be a significant icing event for Saturday. At 12z Saturday the freezing line is wedged all the way down into NC. Doesn’t get above freezing in DC until 03z Sunday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The nam gives me 1.5" of sleet. That would be rare. Ussually sleet is short lived during the transistion from snow to rain. Nothing will top the Feb 07 sleetstorm that turned into a glacier. My friend was an xray tech and she worked two 18 hour days from slips and sled accidents. Lol ICON is .5 qpf all frozen. I'm sure some is sleet. Models agree most of the area is below freezing for most of the precip. Mid 20s the night before will freeze the ground. Could be an interesting storm for not much snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 00z ICON continues to be a significant icing event for Saturday. At 12z Saturday the freezing line is wedged all the way down into NC. Doesn’t get above freezing in DC until 03z Sunday. It’s hard to put much stock in the ICON but it gives Deep Creek over 1” of frozen QPF. I’m just rooting for an interesting event knowing that it won’t be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 00z ICON continues to be a significant icing event for Saturday. At 12z Saturday the freezing line is wedged all the way down into NC. Doesn’t get above freezing in DC until 03z Sunday. I feel like we’ve been in this situation with the ICON before. Anyone know if it has a cold bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 0z NAM and ICON are almost identical with temps/qpf through 0z Sun. Temps aren't even iffy over a large area. That's not common with storms like this. Might be a red flag. Gfs is almost 10 degrees warmer but gfs is bad with CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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