Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

And it's going to be amped too. Bad track and marginal air mass. Pretty much a non event for a good chunk of us which is fine because in a way, I prefer mostly rain to washed away snow.

I’m flying out of JFK on Sat afternoon, so I’d prefer all or mainly rain. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I’m flying out of JFK on Sat afternoon, so I’d prefer all or mainly rain. 

I'm going out of LGA Sunday morning-headed to CO to ski for a week-I'll get my fill of snow out there.

[JustinRP37]

52 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I don't have info to back this up but as per local mets and stats ive been reading, we get most of our snow after the 20th of january

He posted statistics for this date, he didn't make the numbers up by dividing the days in the season. We are statistically behind where we should be for this time of year. However, most of our big storms are, statistically, after the 20th of January. Very often those seasons that end up below average at the end of the January, wind up below average at the conclusion of the season as well. If we don't get the ball rolling soon, then the statistics are no in our favor. This is where people freak out. I didn't say winter would be over, just that statistically it would not look as rosy. With stats though, there is a first for everything. I remain optimistic, however there are some clouds forming on that optimism. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

He posted statistics for this date, he didn't make the numbers up by dividing the days in the season. We are statistically behind where we should be for this time of year. However, most of our big storms are, statistically, after the 20th of January. Very often those seasons that end up below average at the end of the January, wind up below average at the conclusion of the season as well. If we don't get the ball rolling soon, then the statistics are no in our favor. This is where people freak out. I didn't say winter would be over, just that statistically it would not look as rosy. With stats though, there is a first for everything. I remain optimistic, however there are some clouds forming on that optimism. 

if we get to 2/1 and we're still where we are now, it's all but over-usually if the pattern doesn't really change by then, it's not going to.  Last year is a good example-we did get a 6-10 day stretch in early March but by and large things stayed the same, mild and relatively snowless

[sferic]

I usually start worrying during the 2nd week of February when the daily means start to inch up

[JustinRP37]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if we get to 2/1 and we're still where we are now, it's all but over-usually if the pattern doesn't really change by then, it's not going to.  Last year is a good example-we did get a 6-10 day stretch in early March but by and large things stayed the same, mild and relatively snowless

I hear you. I just hate snowless winters. All the gloomy with none of the fun and a waste of being too cold to enjoy the outdoors. With snow the world looks magical and you can go outside and enjoy it. You don't have to worry about sinking in feet of mud and muck. My least favorite season is spring until late May (sometimes June). I am a winter and summer guy, and most falls aren't bad either. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

I hear you. I just hate snowless winters. All the gloomy with none of the fun and a waste of being too cold to enjoy the outdoors. With snow the world looks magical and you can go outside and enjoy it. You don't have to worry about sinking in feet of mud and muck. My least favorite season is spring until late May (sometimes June). I am a winter and summer guy, and most falls aren't bad either. 

Completely agree-if it's not going to snow, give me what we had this weekend...

[the_other_guy]

And the pattern that was changing...stays exactly the same

Cutter to rain

Let’s see how last week of January does

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

And the pattern that was changing...stays exactly the same

Cutter to rain

Let’s see how last week of January does

To be fair the real pattern change doesn’t start until after the 20th. We are currently reshuffling the pac to a better look. If it were to snow Saturday it would be a bonus before the pac improves. The wheels of change are already in motion as tomorrow will be the last warm day for a while. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

To be fair the real pattern change doesn’t start until after the 20th. We are currently reshuffling the pac to a better look. If it were to snow Saturday it would be a bonus before the pac improves. The wheels of change are already in motion as tomorrow will be the last warm day for a while. 

Let’s be honest weather isn’t exact science and models are usually wrong. Past 2-3 days I don’t believe it

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Let’s be honest weather isn’t exact science and models are usually wrong. Past 2-3 days I don’t believe it

But that doesn’t change the fact that this is a bad h5 set up for snow in nyc. Can it change back to more of a look we had a few days ago? Sure! But I wouldn’t bet on it. 

[JustinRP37]

7 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

This is a 2-4 inches of snow in my opinion. It’s a good thump followed by rain! You know models always underestimate dynamic and evaporative cooling that’s a fact. So whatever the models show the rain snow line, take it down another 20 miles at least south.

 

4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Let’s be honest weather isn’t exact science and models are usually wrong. Past 2-3 days I don’t believe it

So far this season you have been far too optimistic with your snowfall forecasts. It is usually about the same time you give your prediction that the models start showing a warmer solution and bringing in more rain. Not to gang up on you, but what did you do to anger Old Man Winter this year? Next storm let's hold off until your 2-3 day range to see maybe you have a string of bad luck this season. 

[Ericjcrash]

2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Can somebody post Euro snow map if possible? 

 

[NYCweatherNOW]

15 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

 

So far this season you have been far too optimistic with your snowfall forecasts. It is usually about the same time you give your prediction that the models start showing a warmer solution and bringing in more rain. Not to gang up on you, but what did you do to anger Old Man Winter this year? Next storm let's hold off until your 2-3 day range to see maybe you have a string of bad luck this season. 

I’ve been saying this is a 2-4 inches followed by rain. I don’t like the setup. I do like the cold for a quick snow event followed by rain unless the precip gets shredded. If it comes in like a wall we’ll get a decent thump

[West Point, NY]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We’re halfway through Met winter and NYC has under 3”. That’s well below average at this point-about one third of average in fact. By now Central Park should be at 8”. Islip is at 4.7” and should be at 8.8”. Bridgeport’s at 5.7” and should be at 9.2”. We still have a long way to go but it’s not whining to say it’s been a very lousy season so far. 

Yes but in statistical reality to balance out the well above decade of snowfall eventually you have to have below normal winters. It is normal

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, West Mtn NY said:

Yes but in statistical reality to balance out the well above decade of snowfall eventually you have to have below normal winters. It is normal

After the Jan 87 storm , we didn't see any significant snow in so long the Star Ledger ran a feature on whatever happened to winter, which IIRC was in 1991. Then 93 and 94 came and people were shocked at how harsh winter could sometimes be...

[TriPol]

Are we outside the NAM's range? I need a weenie model to cheer me up.

[White Gorilla]

54 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

And the pattern that was changing...stays exactly the same

Cutter to rain

Let’s see how last week of January does

MJO stage 5 doesn't help.  If we can get it to 7-8-1, then we talk action 

[NYCweatherNOW]

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Are we outside the NAM's range? I need a weenie model to cheer me up.

By tomorrow we will be

[JustinRP37]

29 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’ve been saying this is a 2-4 inches followed by rain. I don’t like the setup. I do like the cold for a quick snow event followed by rain unless the precip gets shredded. If it comes in like a wall we’ll get a decent thump

Yeah but based on today’s trends it’s going to be hard to even get that 2-4 in the metro area. I’d personally go for an inch or less in Manhattan and similar for southern Westchester. Maybe 2 inches in parts. Northern Westchester maybe 1-3. Just not looking good. 

[Rjay]

7 hours ago, Enigma said:

Adamantly disagree with your limited assessment. 

I've had about enough of this.  

[MJO812]

Gfs is quicker with the front end 

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is quicker with the front end 

Yeh but that Blob of Green up to Saginaw doesnt give me a warm fuzzy feeling for the back end

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Yeh but that Blob of Green up to Saginaw doesnt give me a warm fuzzy feeling for the back end

Nor does the low over northern Lake Michigan!

[Dan76]

Hopefully this changes 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Hopefully this changes 

Looks like a rainy version of NEMO 2013.

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like a rainy version of NEMO 2013.

good track just need to speed up that cold air injection that's in the great lakes

[HVSnowLover]

6 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

 

Euro has never liked this storm for our area, it's why I wasn't too excited even when the GFS looked good a few days ago.  

[HVSnowLover]

This storm is going to cut, it's never been a good setup and this is definitely a snow to rain event, the only question or thing that keeps a me a little intrigued is the strength of the initial CAD and if precip moves in faster than modeled. So far this winter nothing has really worked out so would lean toward an inch or less event changing to rain more than an initial thump but I can see where an initial thump could happen in this setup.   

[HVSnowLover]

Forget initial thump, this storm keeps having less and less overall QPF each run, seems like light snow to light rain

 

Looking more and more like a pure cutter which might actually be good for this area in terms of not getting a drenching rain