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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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On 1/18/2020 at 8:55 AM, Allsnow said:

Final call 

KNYC 2

KEWR 3

KLGA 1.5

KJFK .9

KBDR 4 

Actual.

Knyc 2.1

Kewr 1.8

Klga 1.9

kjfk  1.6

Kbdr 2.5

 

Not a bad forecast for this storm. I was too high at ewr (lull hurt) and too low for Long Island (no lull) I wish they could all go this well lol 

 

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Good Sunday evening everyone,  The NOHRSC snowfall map for yesterdays 7 hour south-southwest surface flow event is appended.  It suggests ensembles are useful...  with what I think are the usual mesoscale enhancements-suppressions that for me are impossible to be sure about more than a couple of hours in advance. 

You can compare this to the ensemble predictions for 3 and 4" as posted on prior days.  

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-19 at 4.43.14 PM.png

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On 1/18/2020 at 8:10 PM, HVSnowLover said:

No matter WHAT the setup is LI always seems to do better than the city, its pretty crazy especially for a storm like this with SE winds.

It doesn't always do better.  However, the north shore of Suffolk County is anywhere from 8 to 25 miles farther north than central park and a SE surface flow is coming over land for up to 25 miles.  That and a lot less UHI, I'd expect average annual snowfall to be higher here.    But there's always going to be the March 1914's and December 2005's (among others) to break our hearts.  I haven't gotten over 1914 yet :oldman:

 

Orient Point isn't a good example because it is very much maritime, but as the farthest north part of LI, it is farther north than West Milford (NJ), New City (Rockland), Armonk (Westchester) and New Canaan (CT).  In some setups, that matters more.

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On 1/21/2020 at 6:24 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

It doesn't always do better.  However, the north shore of Suffolk County is anywhere from 8 to 25 miles farther north than central park and a SE surface flow is coming over land for up to 25 miles.  That and a lot less UHI, I'd expect average annual snowfall to be higher here.    But there's always going to be the March 1914's and December 2005's (among others) to break our hearts.  I haven't gotten over 1914 yet :oldman:

 

Orient Point isn't a good example because it is very much maritime, but as the farthest north part of LI, it is farther north than West Milford (NJ), New City (Rockland), Armonk (Westchester) and New Canaan (CT).  In some setups, that matters more.

One also needs to consider the semirural nature of eastern Suffolk County.  It's why you guys do better in March than we do out here in western Nassau.

 

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On 1/21/2020 at 6:24 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

It doesn't always do better.  However, the north shore of Suffolk County is anywhere from 8 to 25 miles farther north than central park and a SE surface flow is coming over land for up to 25 miles.  That and a lot less UHI, I'd expect average annual snowfall to be higher here.    But there's always going to be the March 1914's and December 2005's (among others) to break our hearts.  I haven't gotten over 1914 yet :oldman:

 

Orient Point isn't a good example because it is very much maritime, but as the farthest north part of LI, it is farther north than West Milford (NJ), New City (Rockland), Armonk (Westchester) and New Canaan (CT).  In some setups, that matters more.

What happened in March 1914?  Did SW Nassau get snowholed that time too? LMAO

 

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On 1/21/2020 at 6:24 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

It doesn't always do better.  However, the north shore of Suffolk County is anywhere from 8 to 25 miles farther north than central park and a SE surface flow is coming over land for up to 25 miles.  That and a lot less UHI, I'd expect average annual snowfall to be higher here.    But there's always going to be the March 1914's and December 2005's (among others) to break our hearts.  I haven't gotten over 1914 yet :oldman:

 

Orient Point isn't a good example because it is very much maritime, but as the farthest north part of LI, it is farther north than West Milford (NJ), New City (Rockland), Armonk (Westchester) and New Canaan (CT).  In some setups, that matters more.

Orient observer reported 30" in the Jan 2015 storm!  I got that in the Jan 2016 storm :-P

 

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