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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks.  And I agree on impact being most important.  Don't know if you've seen my sometimes exhaustive (lol) posts on this, but I strongly believe sleet is almost as impactful as snow and that people greatly underestimate the impact of sleet because  3:1 ratio sleet is only about 1/3 the depth of 10:1 snow.  Problem with that thinking is that for 1" of sleet and 3.3" of snow, for example the frozen mass is the same and frozen mass is all that really matters for driving and snow/sleet removal; and, in fact, sleet will melt more slowly than snow, given its much lower surface area per unit volume vs. flakes, since melting occurs at the surface and less SA means slower melting.  The one exception to impact is that sleet obviously has nearly no impact on visibility, which does matter.  

Agreed w your science.  Also more painful when wind driven and moderate.  Save that info for future posts...   What now must occur is better science translating the sleet into proper accumulative amounts in these algorithms that bias very high in mixed precip.   Gotta walk the dog before the ice pellets or heavier snow arrives. 

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Took a peek at the short range models for my area....nothing that impressive with snow totals.
HRRR looks like 3 for most of NNJ. Considering there's snow on the ground already that seems like what we were expecting. Unless you were expecting more than 2-4.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

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