MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, David-LI said: Maybe if someone has soundings we can confirm your statement? Its snow to light rain on the run for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cmc is more amped with Thursdays low Yep. I know what the pretty snow maps are showing but keep expectations low. This is probably a 2-4 type deal along the coast with more north and west. Lots of time left so hopefully it trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Yep. I know what the pretty snow maps are showing but keep expectations low. This is probably a 2-4 type deal along the coast with north north and west. Lots of time left so hopefully it trends better. Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Nice 1044 high in southeast Canada on the cmc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice 1044 high in southeast Canada on the cmc. This run is going to come in further south and alot colder than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Well if you want a stronger system for Thursday the Canadian is delivering it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, David-LI said: Well if you want a stronger system for Thursday the Canadian is delivering it Nice thump on the cmc before the area goes to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: the other issue is that midlevel warmth usually comes in faster than modeled, I'd expect a quicker change to sleet as it transitions from snow to rain Idk mid-levels are pretty cold throughout. I think a front thump to a cold light rain may be more likely. Gonna be tough to warm surface with strong high ahead and very low dews to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice thump on the cmc before the area goes to rain. Cmc also transfers further south It would be nice to get more south shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Idk mid-levels are pretty cold throughout. I think a front thump to a cold light rain may be more likely. Gonna be tough to warm surface with strong high ahead and very low dews to start. Yeah I don’t have the specifics but it don’t look like the 850’s go above freezing could be some freezing rain or sleet at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Yeah I don’t have the specifics but it don’t look like the 850’s go above freezing cold be some freezing rain or sleet at the end It does eventually change to rain on every model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: It does eventually change to rain on every model I see that, thanks Ant... it is trending colder that’s all I can away from this! But yes the rain is still there unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: It does eventually change to rain on every model Synoptics please. Likely I said yesterday, textbook thump 2-5 area wide, then sleet, quickly to rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Idk mid-levels are pretty cold throughout. I think a front thump to a cold light rain may be more likely. Gonna be tough to warm surface with strong high ahead and very low dews to start. There won't be much sleet with this as shown now. This is snow to rain with probably a short period of sleet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: What are your thoughts? All rain ? Not all rain but it is going to turn to rain across the entire metro area after the initial snow/sleet push. Every model has this going to all rain. Once again, we are posting grossly overdone 10:1 ratio snowmaps that count sleet and freezing rain as snow. Those pretty maps aren’t going to verify. When you have a primary parent low over Lake Ontario, you get a strong mid-level warm push, which models always underestimate until the last minute, we’ve seen this over and over again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Enigma said: Synoptics please. Likely I said yesterday, textbook thump 2-5 area wide, then sleet, quickly to rain. Good call right now. Let's hope it trends colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, snowman19 said: Not all rain but it is going to turn to rain across the entire metro area after the initial snow/sleet push. Every model has this going to all rain. Once again, we are posting grossly overdone 10:1 ratio snowmaps that count sleet and freezing rain as snow. Those pretty maps aren’t going to verify. When you have a primary parent low over Lake Ontario, you get a strong mid-level warm push, which models always underestimate until the last minute, we’ve seen this over and over again We haven't seen this in a long time with a strong arctic high to our north. The last one I remember was in feb 2008. I was forecasted to get an inch. I got 6 inches and then drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Not all rain but it is going to turn to rain across the entire metro area after the initial snow/sleet push. Every model has this going to all rain. Once again, we are posting grossly overdone 10:1 ratio snowmaps that count sleet and freezing rain as snow. Those pretty maps aren’t going to verify. When you have a primary parent low over Lake Ontario, you get a strong mid-level warm push, which models always underestimate until the last minute, we’ve seen this over and over again This has potential to be meat rung if the Thursday system continues to blow up like this. I don't see any scenario where we get a transfer far enough south where we stay all snow but we could see a setup where this gets grinded and ends up being much weaker with less QPF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What are your thoughts? All rain ? As it stands it would be foolish to dismiss the frozen threat. Models clearly show a cold surface/mid levels until the end. Very strong initial high with very low dews ahead of this thing with high trending stronger due to Thursdays system trending stronger and acting like a transient 50/50 low. This doesn't guarantee anything and a lot could change but that's what I'm seeing right now. Some semblance of last year's November storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: As it stands it would be foolish to dismiss the frozen threat. Models clearly show a cold surface/mid levels until the end. Very strong initial high with very low dews ahead of this thing with high trending stronger due to Thursdays system trending stronger and acting like a transient 50/50 low. This doesn't guarantee anything and a lot could change but that's what I'm seeing right now. Some semblance of last year's November storm. This setup is absolutely nothing at all like November, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 This seems to be trending toward a typical SWFE. Typical 2-5 inches of snow ending as light rain, may not even change to rain NW of the city before precip ends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This setup is absolutely nothing at all like November, 2018 Why? Strong artic high with overrunning precipitation. We turned to rain in November 2018 also. The 10-1 maps are not grossly over done with the mid levels so cold beforehand. The kuchera maps are even snowier! Yes, lots of time left for this to go either way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Why? Strong artic high with overrunning precipitation. We turned to rain in November 2018 also. The 10-1 maps are not grossly over done with the mid levels so cold beforehand. The kuchera maps are even snowier! Yes, lots of time left for this to go either way. Precip not as heavy especially on recent runs but that could change or adjust a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Precip not as heavy especially on recent runs but that could change or adjust a bit. It’s all about the forcing. It obviously something we won’t know until we get closer. I just checked the high strength for November 2018 it was 1035. This is supposed to be around 1040, so stronger currently. But 1035 is nothing to sneeze at. @snowman19 it’s one thing to be argumentative with facts it another to be argumentative just for the sake of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 One thing that helped us in November 2018 was that the snow came in like a wall, went from nothing to heavy snow in a matter of 30 minutes. That setup always helps b/c by the time the warm midlevels arrive the bulk of the precip has fallen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: One thing that helped us in November 2018 was that the snow came in like a wall, went from nothing to heavy snow in a matter of 30 minutes. That setup always helps b/c by the time the warm midlevels arrive the bulk of the precip has fallen. The system also approached from the S-SW. Overrunning events that do that here are always snowier than ones which do not. The ideal setup is the high centered right around Portland Maine or slightly NE of that with a system coming from as much a southerly direction as possible. Anything that comes more from the west or southwest the isentropic upglide is not usually as strong leading to less intense rates and banding and often the best WAA lift goes to our north overall. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s all about the forcing. It obviously something we won’t know until we get closer. I just checked the high strength for November 2018 it was 1035. This is supposed to be around 1040, so stronger currently. But 1035 is nothing to sneeze at. @snowman19 it’s one thing to be argumentative with facts it another to be argumentative just for the sake of it. Yea this is definitely starting off as a snow event with temps likely in the 20s at the start of the storm with that high. I have fairly high confidence even at 120 hours out that this will be the most significant snowfall of the season for most of the region which really isn't saying much with the way this winter has gone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The strong high that gets anchored for a while is a good sign that we could all see at least a period of moderate-heavy snow before changing over. This is a SWFE so we eventually will change over, but we’ve had our share of them that produce several inches beforehand. Hopefully the high stays in place-if it starts to erode so will the chances of a decent accum before changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 42 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The system also approached from the S-SW. Overrunning events that do that here are always snowier than ones which do not. The ideal setup is the high centered right around Portland Maine or slightly NE of that with a system coming from as much a southerly direction as possible. Anything that comes more from the west or southwest the isentropic upglide is not usually as strong leading to less intense rates and banding and often the best WAA lift goes to our north overall. Great learning nugget there for me, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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