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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Lol it seemed like he gave his opinion while asking, got another opinion, then just stuck with his

Hadn't thought of that. Someone had asked me the same question about an hour ago, I said I didn't know as it was not a big enough event to be worried about, and that it should turn to rain anyway.

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59 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, I think nyc and immediate burbs have to 7-8pm before the change. Euro cut back on qpf this run which ticked accumulations down. I would like to see the nam loose that warm layer tonight at 00z. 

What may help slightly especially around NYC is if the wind is SW instead of S or SSE. SW wind is off land at least vs off the ocean. On LI it doesn’t really matter. 
 

Mid level warm layers are also always something to watch in SWFEs and there could be sleet that also cuts down accums. Lots can always go wrong in SWFEs down here. 

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22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

What may help slightly especially around NYC is if the wind is SW instead of S or SSE. SW wind is off land at least vs off the ocean. On LI it doesn’t really matter. 
 

Mid level warm layers are also always something to watch in SWFEs and there could be sleet that also cuts down accums. Lots can always go wrong in SWFEs down here. 

Yeah this is a huge factor.  It really does make a big difference.  It’s also not overly strong.  It can screw up snow ratios though as someone else here pointed out 

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6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Solid 5 inches area wide nam 3K

FE60A544-4616-443D-91E9-538C47797E69.png

This map is always overinflated, as Allsnow has pointed out. The one that he posted tends to be more accurate and shows more like a 4 inch snowfall, compared to the 5 that this one is showing. Nice to see the NAM go colder though. 3 to 4 inches is looking like a decent possibility now.

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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This map is always overinflated, as Allsnow has pointed out. The one that he posted tends to be more accurate and shows more like a 4 inch snowfall, compared to the 5 that this one is showing. Nice to see the NAM go colder though. 3 to 4 inches is looking like a decent possibility now.

At this point it’s all noise. It looks like a 2-5 inch snowstorm with a little rain or drizzle at the end. I’m happy with that after this horrible winter!

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This map is always overinflated, as Allsnow has pointed out. The one that he posted tends to be more accurate and shows more like a 4 inch snowfall, compared to the 5 that this one is showing. Nice to see the NAM go colder though. 3 to 4 inches is looking like a decent possibility now.

That map includes sleet which again might overinflate it since warm mid levels may be a factor. 

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4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

At this point it’s all noise. It looks like a 2-5 inch snowstorm with a little rain or drizzle at the end. I’m happy with that after this horrible winter!

Too early to rule out sleet or rain cutting back on accums in the city. What I think is helping is that winds may come out of the SW instead of due south or SE. SW is off land and not as warming. Long Island still gets skunked on that since SW is still off water there.

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Too early to rule out sleet or rain cutting back on accums in the city. What I think is helping is that winds may come out of the SW instead of due south or SE. SW is off land and not as warming. Long Island still gets skunked on that since SW is still off water there.

My hunch is this event will have minimal sleet if any 

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16/3 here currently. Forecast low of 5

a section of Upton’s AFD

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Strong high pressure centered across eastern Canada and the
lower Great Lakes region this evening will build across the
area overnight. NW winds will diminish through the night.
Clear to start, then high clouds overspread the area by
morning. Lows will drop into the single digits to lower teens
for all but the NYC metro, where it will drop into the upper
teens. This is about to 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
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