Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 2-4 is a good bet, CT and HV 3-5. South facing shores less, maybe 1-2 Not sure man. Models are trending snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48 The nam has not shown the higher amounts like the Globals. The other short range guidance has bought into the global ideas but not the nams. I will be interested to see if they cave tonight or continue to forecast that warm layer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48 Since when is the NAM been God like this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Some of the recent model runs have grown a little snowier in the NYC Metro area and surrounding region. The exception was the 12z GGEM, which had little or no measurable snow in this area. As it is an outlier, the GGEM was discounted. My final snowfall estimates are: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 2"-4" Bridgeport: 2"-4" Islip: 1"-3" New York City: 2"-4" Newark: 2"-4" Philadelphia: 2" or less Poughkeepsie: 3"-6" Scranton: 3"-6" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48 Trending snowier sans NAM....nothing like an earlier "event" this season where Upton upped totals after nailing it as a non event previously. Raised totals when it was obviously a non event. I forget the date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48 Weird...doesnt seem like it backed off at all. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Weird...doesnt seem like it backed off at all. It didn't. And if you use 10-1 which at least half the storm should be its inline with the others mostly. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, BxEngine said: Weird...doesnt seem like it backed off at all. The NAM has somewhat of a dry slot behind that initial finger of WAA precip. Other models don’t really have that. The handling of the jet dynamics could be why as I said has been pointed out in the MA forum this week. I’ve seen models like to show that dry nose before in that spot behind that WAA finger and usually it doesn’t happen. You see the whole area tend to back build and then your shield from the main low arrives soon after. That said I wouldn’t be too confident NYC metro sees anything over 3-4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 We rarely see accumulating snow in the New York City metro area with the surface low that tracks north of Chicago North of Detroit and north of Buffalo. I guess this is what a fresh injection of Artic Air can do. Dew points are pretty impressive cold right now below zero throughout the Metro -10 Southern Connecticut -5 Central Park 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM has somewhat of a dry slot behind that initial finger of WAA precip. Other models don’t really have that. The handling of the jet dynamics could be why as I said has been pointed out in the MA forum this week. I’ve seen models like to show that dry nose before in that spot behind that WAA finger and usually it doesn’t happen. You see the whole area tend to back build and then your shield from the main low arrives soon after. That said I wouldn’t be too confident NYC metro sees anything over 3-4 Very true I've seen this happen many times. For those talking about the NAM's performance, it was awful for the early December 'event'. Although in recent years I think it's done' quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Am I crazy or does this thing not get cranking until well into the afternoon? WWA starts at 10AM tomorrow so just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Barman49 said: Is it just me or does Upton seem pretty aggressive with 3-4 at JFK? I know it's a light south wind but that seems a bit optimistic no? Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk I think 3” is too high for JFK. I’d go 1-2” there. LGA and Central Park maybe 3”. If this comes in heavy and can last a few hours before changing over, all bets are off though. It’ll really be about watching the radar and how strong the onshore wind gets tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I say this with nothing to back me up but.....these things always start earlier then we are told they will I've always felt the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Temps before the storm are much colder than past storms You aint kidding. 18 here right now with a forecast low of 7 tonight and high of 28 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 34 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: You aint kidding. 18 here right now with a forecast low of 7 tonight and high of 28 tomorrow. 27 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 11.1 in Liberty NY now forecast low ZERO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 18z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 23.2/2F here. This is a good resource for water temperatures. Readings presently around 46F near Sandy Hook, hence why light southerly winds are desired, and those on the immediate shoreline will have difficulty accumulating more than a trace to 0.5". http://www.fishtrack.com/fishing-charts/northeast-us_61130 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Hdrp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 anyone care to guesstimate a start time for this ? 4 pm ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: anyone care to guesstimate a start time for this ? 4 pm ????? For you in Rockland probably between 2 and 3pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 39 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro Surface southerly winds inland from the coast will be light through late afternoon: Temperatures rise during the evening on stronger southerlies: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Surface southerly winds inland from the coast will be light through late afternoon: Temperatures rise during the evening on stronger southerlies: Yeah, I think nyc and immediate burbs have to 7-8pm before the change. Euro cut back on qpf this run which ticked accumulations down. I would like to see the nam loose that warm layer tonight at 00z. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: For you in Rockland probably between 2 and 3pm. I was thinking around 4---- Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 47 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: anyone care to guesstimate a start time for this ? 4 pm ????? 45 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: For you in Rockland probably between 2 and 3pm. 25 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I was thinking around 4---- Thanks Then why did you ask? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Then why did you ask? Because he wasn't sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Because he wasn't sure. Lol it seemed like he gave his opinion while asking, got another opinion, then just stuck with his 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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