Wetbulbs88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, sussexcountyobs said: When you say juiced, what are liquid equivalent amounts?? .5+ area-wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 With lows in the teens tonight snow should stick immediately .TONIGHT...Clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 14. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Snow with a chance of rain in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: .5+ area-wide That would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NAM is juiced but warmLooks like central Long island gets a quick burst of moderate snow around 3 to 4pmThen a lull before rain pushes in around 7pmI'm thinking 1 to 2 slushy inchesSent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: With lows in the teens tonight snow should stick immediately .TONIGHT...Clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 14. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Snow with a chance of rain in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches It sucks that the low is going to travel through the lakes. Its certainly cold enough now for a nice snow event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Kinda reminds me of 12/27/90. Were predicting 1 to 3 that morning before upgrading to 3 to 6. Ended up with close to 8 with a layer of freezing rain on top. It was all gone within 48 hours Not expecting a repeat but February 2008 had a nice over performing swfe. Forecast was for 2-4 which ended up being 6-9. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Might be time for advisories at least in northern Queens Nassau and Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Do you have the latest Mt. Holly NESmap? Because that Upton map looks like an increase of up to 2" by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, sussexcountyobs said: Do you have the latest Mt. Holly NESmap? Because that Upton map looks like an increase of up to 2" by me. 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: Do you have the latest Mt. Holly NESmap? Because that Upton map looks like an increase of up to 2" by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Barman49 said: I don't think Mt Holly updated yet. Upton did this afternoon. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk That map was updated at 400pm and advisories were extended to somerset and middlesex counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 That map was updated at 400pm and advisories were extended to somerset and middlesex counties. I saw after I posted that's why I deleted. I looked at their site and didn't see the update like 15 minutes ago. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Gfs has 3-6 for NYC and west, 2-4 for LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Is it just me or does Upton seem pretty aggressive with 3-4 at JFK? I know it's a light south wind but that seems a bit optimistic no? Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not expecting a repeat but February 2008 had a nice over performing swfe. Forecast was for 2-4 which ended up being 6-9. I was just thinking of that! 8 inches in SW Nassau and only changed to drizzle at the end. Water temps are a lot colder in late Feb vs mid Jan though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Barman49 said: Is it just me or does Upton seem pretty aggressive with 3-4 at JFK? I know it's a light south wind but that seems a bit optimistic no? Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Yes I was thinking more like an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Barman49 said: Is it just me or does Upton seem pretty aggressive with 3-4 at JFK? I know it's a light south wind but that seems a bit optimistic no? Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, snowman19 said: Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48 Gfs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: Yes I was thinking more like an inch. Surface cold takes a while to get scoured out This is a really cold airmass before the storm. I like 2-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48No it didn't. You're using pos snow depth. Barely changed from previous run using that. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs? I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinion This event is entirely dependent on how much precip falls. As of now the temps outside of LI due to south flow aren’t a problem. PSU you in the mid Atlantic forum has been nailing the QPF scenario all week with the storm based off the jet orientation. If you look at the 18 GFS you could see why it produces more snow and QPF. It has the 250kt jet oriented perfectly in a WSW orientation to break out snow across our area. Meanwhile the NAM that 250kt jet core doesn't get going til after 21Z and a result by that time it’s warming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2-4 is a good bet, CT and HV 3-5. South facing shores less, maybe 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinionStill seems high for them. I can see northern areas of Manhattan/Bronx getting that. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 How in the world does Mt Holly not have Somerset County in a WWA? They are calling for 2 inches southern area and 4 inches for the northern part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though I think you just pay attention to the models that show the least snow but correct me if I’m wrong that’s just my opinion! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, mikeysed said: How in the world does Mt Holly not have Somerset County in a WWA? They are calling for 2 inches southern area and 4 inches for the northern part... They do. It’s been extended south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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