LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The general idea that most of the New York City Metro Area, including adjacent sections of New Jersey, will receive 1"-3" snow tomorrow (lesser amounts on Long Island, especially Suffolk County) has remained remarkably stable on the guidance. The RGEM remains a high outlier (showing > 4" in New York City). At 0z, the GGEM was a low outlier showing barely more than an inch. The 1/17 0z and 12z runs of the HREF ensemble system indicated 2"-4" across the area, including Nassau County. Locations such as Albany, Binghamton, Poughkeepsie, and Scranton remain in line for 3"-6" snow. Select seasonal snowfall through January 16 was: Albany: 32.1" (5.9" above normal) Allentown: 3.4" (7.4" below normal) Binghamton: 31.5" (4.7" below normal) Bridgeport: 5.7" (4.2" below normal) Islip: 4.7" (4.7" below normal) New York City: 2.7" (5.9" below normal) Newark: 5.1" (4.7" below normal) Philadelphia: 0.1" (6.5" below normal) Scranton: 15.7" (2.2" below normal) I feel really bad for Philly..... Anyway I saw a map of all the storm tracks of the season and they were all north of us, with one right over us. That kind of pattern is bad for snowfall, regardless of how 'cold' it gets in between storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 51 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Yes, and I think 3-4 inches is still a good call for us in Mid HV. I would be surprised with anything more than that. Sounds just about right. At least it will look like winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Unlike every other event this season hitherto, this one includes a much better antecedent airmass over the local region. Thus, rather than little to nothing, I think it is possible for NYC to record 1-2" of snow tomorrow. EWR/locations immediately NW of NYC could potentially see 2-3". Southerly winds will take several hours to scour out the dense, low-level cold and low dew points. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I feel really bad for Philly..... Anyway I saw a map of all the storm tracks of the season and they were all north of us, with one right over us. That kind of pattern is bad for snowfall, regardless of how 'cold' it gets in between storms. Hopefully, things will change at some point in February in terms of snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Unlike every other event this season hitherto, this one includes a much better antecedent airmass over the local region. Thus, rather than little to nothing, I think it is possible for NYC to record 1-2" of snow tomorrow. EWR/locations immediately NW of NYC could potentially see 2-3". Southerly winds will take several hours to scour out the dense, low-level cold and low dew points. Agree. This low level cold is no joke thanks to the 1044 high in place. This is your typical swfe climo. Driscoll bridge will be another good dividing line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Euro ticks colder and snowier for the metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Unlike every other event this season hitherto, this one includes a much better antecedent airmass over the local region. Thus, rather than little to nothing, I think it is possible for NYC to record 1-2" of snow tomorrow. EWR/locations immediately NW of NYC could potentially see 2-3". Southerly winds will take several hours to scour out the dense, low-level cold and low dew points. that is still an 80s type pattern, Tom. A true pattern change will likely take until Feb 20th to occur if you go by the normal progression of patterns like these (which take about 8 weeks to complete- it started on Dec 22, ironically the first full day of winter!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 @Enigma if this is right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 SE wind may help moisten things a bit and limit virga. That said, little more of a riming signature on this EC, too. That has been a bit of a trend today, finding a warmer nose in the DGZ, would likely take ratios down a bit. Think I'm gonna stick with what I had earlier, which is mostly a coating-2" city, LI and 2-4" N and W as well as CT. Further up the HV and into northern CT is where you get your 3-6" stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Hoping for 2" on my wood deck for the first time since the early March storm last year. This is probably the best antecedent airmass for an event since January 4, 2018, at least for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Agree. This low level cold is no joke thanks to the 1044 high in place. This is your typical swfe climo. Driscoll bridge will be another good dividing line Agree as well. Hopefully, we can pick up an inch or two here in Monmouth County. Unfortunately, temperatures here likely rise to 40F after the snow ends, otherwise, we could have maintained that little bit of snow on the ground for several days, given the colder temperatures next week. 56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: that is still an 80s type pattern, Tom. A true pattern change will likely take until Feb 20th to occur if you go by the normal progression of patterns like these (which take about 8 weeks to complete- it started on Dec 22, ironically the first full day of winter!) Yes, the past couple of winters have been a bit of a throw-back to the mean storm tracks of much of the 80s and 90s which favored the interior, and numerous snow to rain events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 55 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Northern LI right on the edge here, 1-3" is a good forecast right now north of the LIE. Euro may be a bit aggressive on the 3.5"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 3-4" would be like a HECS this season. Nice to see things trend positively as we get close to the event for once. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: 3-4" would be like a HECS this season. Nice to see things trend positively as we get close to the event for once. Lol seriously this will be a nice event because we haven’t really had any snow. Hoping we get 3-5 areawide tomorrow and next week looks a little better for us. Hopefully that trends into a big east coast storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 59 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Might be time for advisories at least in northern Queens Nassau and Suffolk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: Might be time for advisories at least in northern Queens Nassau and Suffolk. Close. It is the weekend though so I'm sure there's no major push to do so. If this held overnight they'd probably expand a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 3-4" would be like a HECS this season. Nice to see things trend positively as we get close to the event for once. Kinda reminds me of 12/27/90. Were predicting 1 to 3 that morning before upgrading to 3 to 6. Ended up with close to 8 with a layer of freezing rain on top. It was all gone within 48 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Someone else here has been closely tracking growth signatures. This has been a killer this season, along with marginal temps. Still thinking 0-2" for the immediate metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Advisories expanded to everyone except SE Suffolk. I’m still thinking forgettable in general but maybe some on the north shore make it to 3”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Upton now has 2-4 for the NYC area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Someone else here has been closely tracking growth signatures. This has been a killer this season, along with marginal temps. Still thinking 0-2" for the immediate metro. Temps before the storm are much colder than past storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Advisories expanded to everyone except SE Suffolk. I’m still thinking forgettable in general but maybe some on the north shore make it to 3”. classic nuisance event, but it's a HECS this year. Happy it's a Saturday-no kids getting out early etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 144 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 NYZ074-075-078>080-176>179-180245- /O.EXA.KOKX.WW.Y.0001.200118T1500Z-200119T0600Z/ Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk- Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 144 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southeast New York. * WHEN...From 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Not bad at all 3-4 for NYC and the boroughs on the nws snowmap. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: as much as I want snow tomorrow, I hope its tame enough to where bobs furniture doesn't cancel my delivery because then I may never like snow again Most of us hope it’s so bad they cancel the deliver 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: very true They’re not going to cancel your delivery it’s going to get delivered before it gets semi bad. The roads may get snow covered tomorrow though it will get tricky at one point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: They’re not going to cancel your delivery it’s going to get delivered before it gets semi bad. The roads may get snow covered tomorrow though it will get tricky at one point. it's a couple of inches of snow, they are not canceling for that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NAM is juiced but warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: NAM is juiced but warm When you say juiced, what are liquid equivalent amounts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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