NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: 13:1 ratio is pretty decent on the coast. NWS .HAS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYC ..GOING WITH 2 TO 4. I THINK IF THAT HAPPENS BIG WIN FOR THIS WINTER THUS FAR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looks like only for 2/5 northern boroughs. Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island left out for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Not to be a pessimist (or maybe a realist), but based on the last several years living in Manhattan during storms hovering at or just above freezing, have my doubts on how much will accumulate over here. Reeeeally hope I'm wrong and that the cold we are experiencing today/overnight provides enough of a countermeasure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 Good Friday morning everyone, Jan 17. I wish my confidence was greater for Saturday. Concerned about qpf modeling... and as often mentioned by group members, southwest flow event, (especially 850MB)...just hard to get my hopes up. I expect 2 inch minimum just north and west of NYC. The city I think should still be snowing at 7PM but surface temps govern accums. FGEN embedded in the ridge well ahead of the short wave should develop a band or 2 of moderate snow for an hour or 2 Saturday afternoon-early evening. Modeling later today and tomorrow may help... anyway, with less than 3" so far in Central Park... if an inch falls....that would be noteworthy. I've added some ensemble graphics. The first two are courtesy NWS ensembling system for snowfall. The last is the ECMWF EPS chance for 3+ inches courtesy of Weather.US posted 718AM, data gathered around 5AM. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 23 hours ago, NittanyWx said: Very marginal situation and I think best case scenario here goes something like getting some snow at 33-34 in the city for a few hours. Gonna be tough to stay colder than that with that SW wind past say 21-22z. Think if you're a bit further north in CT, Hudson Valley, NW jersey...better chance to get yourself a couple of inches before it flips over. Implied, but the mid-levels and even most of the lower levels are OK. The issue is sfc to like 950mb with high gone. The main issue the Euro is presenting isn't really the temp profile early on. It's more the precip being slower to arrive and losing out on getting some needed precip with the colder air still in place. Think early ballpark of like 1-3 north of the city, coating to maybe 2" at the absolute highest in the city (bias for lesser end of range) and less than that south. I think I'll nudge areas just north of the city to 2-4", keep coating to 2" for the city, Island and south. You head further up and gain some elevation in and northern CT you'll find those 3-6" type of amounts. Thicknesses will be rising throughout the event and you'll still have low level warmth to deal with after 21-22z or so. I still have a tough time in the city seeing anything more than 2" in a WAA type of scenario like we have here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: long island is really on the line here...… Still think it’ll be forgettable/lousy in general on the island other than maybe north of the Northern State or Rt 25 where it could be a couple degrees colder for most of it than the south shore. Maybe an inch on the south shore and 2” on the north shore isn’t exactly nail biting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: long island is really on the line here...… It can go either way The faster the precip comes in the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Still think it’ll be forgettable/lousy in general on the island other than maybe north of the Northern State or Rt 25 where it could be a couple degrees colder for most of it than the south shore. Maybe an inch on the south shore and 2” on the north shore isn’t exactly nail biting. Agree with this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 This will likely be our last shot at snow for awhile so enjoy it. I think 1-3" remains a good call with higher amounts N&W of the city. It'll feel like winter for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Still think it’ll be forgettable/lousy in general on the island other than maybe north of the Northern State or Rt 25 where it could be a couple degrees colder for most of it than the south shore. Maybe an inch on the south shore and 2” on the north shore isn’t exactly nail biting. Yep. The writing has been on the wall for days around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I’ll go 1-2 for the metro and 2-4 north and west. Long Island c-1. I think sw ct will do the best as in top end of the 2-4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’ll go 1-2 for the metro and 2-4 north and west. Long Island c-1. I think sw ct will do the best as in top end of the 2-4. I would think the HV does better than SW CT in this setup. I guess will find out tomorrow. So much anticipation for a six hour event that will be minimal for many. This is what patterns like this do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I’ll go 1-2 for the metro and 2-4 north and west. Long Island c-1. I think sw ct will do the best as in top end of the 2-4. Rgem looks good for a few inches even In the city. We need a thump and we will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem looks good for a few inches even In the city. We need a thump and we will be good. I think the city and immediate suburbs west of the river are good for 2 inches. I can see ewr getting 3-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think the city and immediate suburbs west of the river are good for 2 inches. I can see ewr getting 3-4 Ewr will def get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Gfs has 2-4 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has 2-4 for NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12z HRRR is pretty cold too, with 2 to 4 for most of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has 2-4 for NYC That would be nice. At least models didn't destroy the snow threat this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3+ is going to be tough with qpf of .3" or so unless theres no melting and ratios are 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Not sure how people are seeing 2-4 when QPF doesn't even get above .3 in some spots and temps are marginal. This is 1-3 at best, my guess is coating-2. (for the immediate metro) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Not sure how people are seeing 2-4 when QPF doesn't even get above .3 in some spots and temps are marginal. This is 1-3 at best, my guess is coating-2. (for the immediate metro) The front end thump is slightly more impressive on the 12z models. The faster the precip comes in the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12 Rgem (likely wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Animal said: 12 Rgem (likely wrong) Likely wrong ? How do you know that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 And, perhaps more to the point, why post something if you think it's wrong... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The general idea that most of the New York City Metro Area, including adjacent sections of New Jersey, will receive 1"-3" snow tomorrow (lesser amounts on Long Island, especially Suffolk County) has remained remarkably stable on the guidance. The RGEM remains a high outlier (showing > 4" in New York City). At 0z, the GGEM was a low outlier showing barely more than an inch. The 1/17 0z and 12z runs of the HREF ensemble system indicated 2"-4" across the area, including Nassau County. Locations such as Albany, Binghamton, Poughkeepsie, and Scranton remain in line for 3"-6" snow. Select seasonal snowfall through January 16 was: Albany: 32.1" (5.9" above normal) Allentown: 3.4" (7.4" below normal) Binghamton: 31.5" (4.7" below normal) Bridgeport: 5.7" (4.2" below normal) Islip: 4.7" (4.7" below normal) New York City: 2.7" (5.9" below normal) Newark: 5.1" (4.7" below normal) Philadelphia: 0.1" (6.5" below normal) Scranton: 15.7" (2.2" below normal) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 While this mostly concerns interior areas where p-type isn't as much of a worry, it's worth noting that although QPF has increased a little at 12z, the soundings also got a fair bit worse for snow growth. It may cancel out. That's a lot of lift and vertical real estate now focused in the riming layer with the warmer mid-level temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 35 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: While this mostly concerns interior areas where p-type isn't as much of a worry, it's worth noting that although QPF has increased a little at 12z, the soundings also got a fair bit worse for snow growth. It may cancel out. That's a lot of lift and vertical real estate now focused in the riming layer with the warmer mid-level temps. More needles than dendrites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 35 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: While this mostly concerns interior areas where p-type isn't as much of a worry, it's worth noting that although QPF has increased a little at 12z, the soundings also got a fair bit worse for snow growth. It may cancel out. That's a lot of lift and vertical real estate now focused in the riming layer with the warmer mid-level temps. Yes, and I think 3-4 inches is still a good call for us in Mid HV. I would be surprised with anything more than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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