wdrag Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 Good Thursday morning everyone (Jan 16). Here's a few graphics I used for a briefing this morning. NYC doesn't look good for an inch but for Morris and western Passaic Counties westward and northward including Orange County...even though it's not big, its a travel problem for ~ 5 hours during Saturday afternoon-evening due to temps hovering in the upper teens to mid 20's during the snowfall out there. NWS ensemble graphics are appended for 1"+ and 4"+. The EPS is courtesy of Weather.US and the ECMWF, and also is appended for the chance of 3+ inches. This differs from the NWS and I suspect is less detailed on terrain and its impact on qpf. I noticed the UK and EPS/GEFS all favor heaviest qpf in two stripes...one is I78 area southward and then well to our north. Surface temps and timing of snowfall will determine Central Park accumulation (if any). I wont be reposting til Friday morning...allowing models to fluctuate. 638A/16 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 If these models hold, it follows the pattern that the models have had all season week out storm looks ok->storm looks marginal for extended period->storm with marginal setup looks better 2-3 days out -> models finally give in to negative fundamentals and show a non event for NYC-> actual event is a non winter event Anyone else notice this thus far this season? It is almost as if we as a forum are looking at too closely at every run and dismissing the basic fundamentals of a marginal (or worse) set up in the name of hope 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 51 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: If these models hold, it follows the pattern that the models have had all season week out storm looks ok->storm looks marginal for extended period->storm with marginal setup looks better 2-3 days out -> models finally give in to negative fundamentals and show a non event for NYC-> actual event is a non winter event Anyone else notice this thus far this season? It is almost as if we as a forum are looking at too closely at every run and dismissing the basic fundamentals of a marginal (or worse) set up in the name of hope Agree with you here. This was always a 1-3 inch event, at best, as you can see the models are correcting warmer with less snow as we get closer, theme of this winter so far, expect this correction to continue through tomorrow. Would not surprise me one bit if NYC sees less than an inch and the N & W suburbs see 1-2 inches at best before a changeover. This setup was very, very marginal from day one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Very marginal situation and I think best case scenario here goes something like getting some snow at 33-34 in the city for a few hours. Gonna be tough to stay colder than that with that SW wind past say 21-22z. Think if you're a bit further north in CT, Hudson Valley, NW jersey...better chance to get yourself a couple of inches before it flips over. Implied, but the mid-levels and even most of the lower levels are OK. The issue is sfc to like 950mb with high gone. The main issue the Euro is presenting isn't really the temp profile early on. It's more the precip being slower to arrive and losing out on getting some needed precip with the colder air still in place. Think early ballpark of like 1-3 north of the city, coating to maybe 2" at the absolute highest in the city (bias for lesser end of range) and less than that south. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Yeah I think the biggest issue is the fact the waa is going north of the metro. So we are left with a band of snow for those south of CT. Best forcing is well north of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It actually goes beyond this season. Amplified systems usually adjust north over time. So when the storm is originally modeled to go through the Great Lakes, we are in a marginal spot to begin with. Any warmer or northward shift just adds to the milder outcome.That’s why our best snowstorms are often forecast to be just or our south or east in the long range. As we get closer, the heaviest snows begin to creep into our area. You can go back and look at our best snowstorms and see this forecast evolution. Yep. Bad patterns bring bad results. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah I think the biggest issue is the fact the waa is going north of the metro. So we are left with a band of snow for those south of CT. Best forcing is well north of the area That’s often another problem with these-the initial warm advection precip overshoots our area to the north/west. Not expecting much with this anywhere near the coast at this point, if it’s anything more than an inch be happy. The delayed start is another downer on this-more time for the cold airmass to erode. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I think the northern portions of CT and as you get further north in the Hudson valley can do much better. Decent forcing, less of a sfc issue. Get some elevation and you're probably looking 4-8". I do still think even 20-50 miles north of the city you're gonna accumulate a couple of inches for what it's worth. This is just a pretty tough/marginal situation for anyone in the city, the Island and a chunk of central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It actually goes beyond this season. Amplified systems usually adjust north over time. So when the storm is originally modeled to go through the Great Lakes, we are in a marginal spot to begin with. Any warmer or northward shift just adds to the milder outcome.That’s why our best snowstorms are often forecast to be just or our south or east in the long range. As we get closer, the heaviest snows begin to creep into our area. You can go back and look at our best snowstorms and see this forecast evolution. Blizzard of 96. Was forecast to miss NYC until about 24 hrs out....great example there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Blizzard of 96. Was forecast to miss NYC until about 24 hrs out....great example there. Boxing Day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 NAM trending drier-only about .3 to .4 of QPF today's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The main issue I see cuitting back totals is the lack of qpf more than temps, this was always a snow to rain situation but earlier runs were showing much more qpf, storm is getting drier and drier If anything the recent runs on the American models have been colder, this is starting to look like mainly a snow event Northwest of the city before precip shuts down, the city is very much on the fence with precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 12z Canadian is okay for nnj & lower Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 There is going to be a time frame from early afternoon until early evening when most if not all accumulation will happen. I still think central park sees a slushy inch or 2, just north of NYC 2 maybe 3, then further N and W into NW Jersey and HV 3-4, isolated 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I agree the person yesterday who said this could be mainly rain at JFK and mainly snow at EWR. The mixing line is really right over northern parts of the city on the models during the main precip. However the precip is not heavy enough where it will be 6 inches vs 1 inch but given the impact of evaporational cooling and no sign of a sneaky mid layer showing up as of now I think 1-3 inches from the Bronx north is a solid call right now. South of there it's more iffy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Keep in mind that QPF is only 0.30" - 0.50" from Cent. Jersey thru LI..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 What is the qpf for the catskills for this storm let's say at KMSV? Thanks ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, sferic said: What is the qpf for the catskills for this storm let's say at KMSV? Thanks ! Generally looks to be 0.50" - 0.70" per the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 52 minutes ago, sferic said: What is the qpf for the catskills for this storm let's say at KMSV? Thanks ! Unfortunely drying up there too. I'll be up at my place between Roscoe and Delhi ~2000' Sunday into Monday. Hopefully theres a solid hit so at least it'll have a wintry look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Unfortunely drying up there too. I'll be up at my place between Roscoe and Delhi ~2000' Sunday into Monday. Hopefully theres a solid hit so at least it'll have a wintry look.Relocating in the not too distant future between Delhi and Walton and getting 500 to 600 feet higher in elevation too!Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I’m going with 2-4” for my neck of the woods which is basically the 287 corridor. 1-3” for 95 looks reasonable with a trace for the city and areas further East. Once you get up by I-84 and into the Binghamton and Albany CWA’s I think you’re in the 6-10” range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I’m going with 2-4” for my neck of the woods which is basically the 287 corridor. 1-3” for 95 looks reasonable with a trace for the city and areas further East. Once you get up by I-84 and into the Binghamton and Albany CWA’s I think you’re in the 6-10” range. Sound good, I’m thinking 3-4” in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 A solid 3- 6 in Liberty NY and i'll be very happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Latest discussion from NWS Albany below. Looks like 3-5 for most of lower and mid HV. North of I90 get 6+ A fast moving storm with favorable jet dynamics will bring a widespread moderate to heavy snowfall to the region. A cold airmass will be place across the region ahead of this storm. There will be impressive insentropic lift with strong frontogenetical forcing. CSTAR research indicates banding will be possible. Laterally translately bands occur with strong warm air advection and the low approaching from the west. Overrunning warm air advection snow will quickly spread across the area early Saturday afternoon. Once it starts expect it come down heavy with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour. The bulk of the snow is expected to fall between noon and midnight. The highest snowfall amounts are expected across the southern Adirondacks, lake George Saratoga Region, Berkshires and southern Vermont where 7+ inches are expected. Secondary development is not expected to occur until Saturday night and off along the northern New England coast. So our snow will come from the primary low and with the southerly flow ahead of it some mixing with rain possible into the mid Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut late Saturday evening however the dry slot should also be moving in at the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 This looks like 1 -3 inches for many near the coast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The dry slot is helpful in this case. This about as good as a deal we can get with a low tracking to the lakes and SE winds, if we escape with a mostly snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 10 hours ago, jfklganyc said: If these models hold, it follows the pattern that the models have had all season week out storm looks ok->storm looks marginal for extended period->storm with marginal setup looks better 2-3 days out -> models finally give in to negative fundamentals and show a non event for NYC-> actual event is a non winter event Anyone else notice this thus far this season? It is almost as if we as a forum are looking at too closely at every run and dismissing the basic fundamentals of a marginal (or worse) set up in the name of hope This is the best setup we've had within 48 hours of the event, the other storms have all had big issues with the mid level warming. This storm is snow or rain without the ice threat so I think places just NW of the city will make out a lot better this time around, the city itself is iffy because of surface temps but if it's heavy enough could be a quick 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 850's on the NAM never get above 0 the entire event for areas north of central NJ and west of the Hudson - if we could keep levels lower then that the same would be all frozen or mix mostly in many areas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 58 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This looks like 1 -3 inches for many near the coast A true win this season. Hopefully it doesn't get washed away though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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