Juliancolton Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: NAM and HRRR actually give Long Island more snow than northern Jersey now. Doesn't make much sense since LI was supposed to get less due to warming. Models have suddenly cut way back for my area, showing closer to 1 inch. Bad trends here at the last minute. I know people say it doesn't matter because it's nowcasting time, but models are supposed to be more accurate the closer they get to an event. So they should be more accurate now than they were last night, but it's hard to believe LI could get more than northern NJ in this kind of setup. Short-term model guidance is part and parcel of "nowcasting" IMO. Otherwise it's just called looking at radar loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: NAM and HRRR actually give Long Island more snow than northern Jersey now. Doesn't make much sense since LI was supposed to get less due to warming. Models have suddenly cut way back for my area, showing closer to 1 inch. Bad trends here at the last minute for this area. I know people say it doesn't matter because it's nowcasting time, but models are supposed to be more accurate the closer they get to an event. So they should be more accurate now than they were last night, but it's hard to believe LI could get more than northern NJ in this kind of setup. Nam looked good for nnj. 3k nam was a sleet fest. Gfs still has 2-3 as we flip to mod snow between 6-8pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam looked good for nnj. 3k nam was a sleet fest. Gfs still has 2-3 as we flip to mod snow between 6-8pm 12z NAM is giving nnj only about 2 inches now while it gives parts of Long Island 3 inches. But yeah, GFS does look much better for our area. NAM, RGEM and HRRR give us only 1 to 2 inches here now though. A cutback from what they were showing last night and I find it odd that some models are now giving LI more snow than our area. Hopefully GFS is correct for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 The radar looks to me like it's filling in down in western Maryland and that looks like what's moving towards us. Hopefully any lull isn't too long. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 As this burst of snow progresses to the east it looks like the snow has shut off in the Harrisburg PA area where earlier it was snowing hard. This aligns with model progs calling for a break in the precip for a time during the day in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 39 minutes ago, wdrag said: For what it's worth.... I've added the thermal profile for LGA from there 12z NAM. Some forecasters get concerned about Ice Pellets (IP) once the temp aloft nudges zero. In this case at about 22z, there is a modeled hint of IP before upward motion and wet bulbing may cool the sounding enough to permit snow til about 0030z. The sfc temp may not be cold enough to support much if any additional accumulation after 00z. Also RGEM from the 12z run is slightly warmer aloft and seems like less qpf in NJ. Hope am wrong about the warming aloft trends. I've added the Sparta NJ hourly type for any forum members in nw NJ. Hope it's right about only 1 hr IP. Walt 1530z/18 Walt - I know you know a ton more about meteorology than I do, but I have a ton of knowledge about heat transfer/physical chemistry (PhD in chem eng'g) and I'd quibble with one point in your post. Once there is a layer of frozen precip on the ground (and there will be) the 2M surface temp becomes largely irrelevant to whether falling snow will accumulate at the surface, since the "actual surface" is snow, which, by definition, has a maximum temp of 32F and can't ever get warmer than that (will melt at 32F). If you're talking about bare paved surfaces (plowed or treated), then the actual surface will quickly warm to the 2M surface temp and further snow accumulations on the paved surfaces could be more difficult, unless, of course the falling snow rate exceeds the melting rate at the surface and with moderate snow or heavier, that will occur, as melting rates after dark at 33-34F should be <1/4" per hour. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 First flakes here at 24.6 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 21/1 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Up 2 degrees in last hour. 26Southerly windsSent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 28 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Winds gone southerly here too now..SSE. temp up to 28 and little peaks of sun actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 SN+ in Hunterdon County. Instantly sticking to all surfaces. Healthy dendritic growth. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 On I78 in western New Jersey Milepost 16 and it’s coming down pretty good. Maybe 1/2 mile vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Absolutely dumping here in central ocean county. Looks like .5”. Everything coated including trees and road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Flakes falling on boardwalk Seaside Heights NJ https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Moderate snow. Began at 11:40 21/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Cold 27 cloudy looks like snow is coming like a wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Took a while 5 minutes for the ground to be completely white here...Coming down pretty good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: Agreed - I like the ~6-8PM window for potential +SN in northern Queens/LI, Manhattan, CT and points north. How far north? North and east or...? Sorry I just never really know what metro area mets mean when they say that so I thought I'd see what you're thinking. There has always seemed to be more focus on N&W but that's almost always wrong for me and I'm ~55 miles due north of the Whitestone Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Didn't see anyone mention that, surprisingly, the NWS-NYC upped their snowfall forecast for NYC metro at 10 am. Not sure why, since there was no AFD update at the same time, but they did. Here you go... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, RU848789 said: Didn't see anyone mention that, surprisingly, the NWS-NYC upped their snowfall forecast for NYC metro at 10 am. Not sure why, since there was no AFD update at the same time, but they did. Here you go... This would be my biggest this season 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Cold 27 cloudy looks like snow is coming like a wall Too bad it's going to move out like one too... should be a nice 45 minutes though. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, gravitylover said: How far north? North and east or...? Sorry I just never really know what metro area mets mean when they say that so I thought I'd see what you're thinking. There has always seemed to be more focus on N&W but that's almost always wrong for me and I'm ~55 miles due north of the Whitestone Bridge. You're far enough north to see mostly snow before the dry slot moves in. Should do well up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Too bad it's going to move out like one too... should be a nice 45 minutes though. We take. 45 minutes snow event? Whatever dry slot behind that snow wall will fill in. Your call was costing to 2 inches it looks like you may win lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: 45 minutes snow event? Whatever dry slot behind that snow wall will fill in. Your call was costing to 2 inches it looks like you may win lol ~2" Looks good imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: ~2" Looks good imo Where you from? I think Central Park scores 3.5-4 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Where you from? I think Central Park scores 3.5-4 inches lol no way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, nycwinter said: lol no way... 1-3 is a good call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Where you from? I think Central Park scores 3.5-4 inches Its possible. Its going to be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Light to mod snow. Nice to have instant stickage for a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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