Wetbulbs88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:45 PM, sussexcountyobs said: When you say juiced, what are liquid equivalent amounts?? Expand .5+ area-wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 With lows in the teens tonight snow should stick immediately .TONIGHT...Clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 14. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Snow with a chance of rain in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:46 PM, Wetbulbs88 said: .5+ area-wide Expand That would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:44 PM, Wetbulbs88 said: NAM is juiced but warmLooks like central Long island gets a quick burst of moderate snow around 3 to 4pmThen a lull before rain pushes in around 7pmI'm thinking 1 to 2 slushy inchesSent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:47 PM, Stormlover74 said: With lows in the teens tonight snow should stick immediately .TONIGHT...Clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 14. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Snow with a chance of rain in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches Expand It sucks that the low is going to travel through the lakes. Its certainly cold enough now for a nice snow event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 7:29 PM, Stormlover74 said: Kinda reminds me of 12/27/90. Were predicting 1 to 3 that morning before upgrading to 3 to 6. Ended up with close to 8 with a layer of freezing rain on top. It was all gone within 48 hours Expand Not expecting a repeat but February 2008 had a nice over performing swfe. Forecast was for 2-4 which ended up being 6-9. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 7:26 PM, jm1220 said: Might be time for advisories at least in northern Queens Nassau and Suffolk. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:14 PM, Allsnow said: Expand Do you have the latest Mt. Holly NESmap? Because that Upton map looks like an increase of up to 2" by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:21 PM, sussexcountyobs said: Do you have the latest Mt. Holly NESmap? Because that Upton map looks like an increase of up to 2" by me. Expand On 1/17/2020 at 9:21 PM, sussexcountyobs said: Do you have the latest Mt. Holly NESmap? Because that Upton map looks like an increase of up to 2" by me. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:23 PM, Allsnow said: Expand Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:26 PM, Barman49 said: I don't think Mt Holly updated yet. Upton did this afternoon. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Expand That map was updated at 400pm and advisories were extended to somerset and middlesex counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:28 PM, Allsnow said: That map was updated at 400pm and advisories were extended to somerset and middlesex counties. I saw after I posted that's why I deleted. I looked at their site and didn't see the update like 15 minutes ago. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Gfs has 3-6 for NYC and west, 2-4 for LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Is it just me or does Upton seem pretty aggressive with 3-4 at JFK? I know it's a light south wind but that seems a bit optimistic no? Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:10 PM, Allsnow said: Not expecting a repeat but February 2008 had a nice over performing swfe. Forecast was for 2-4 which ended up being 6-9. Expand I was just thinking of that! 8 inches in SW Nassau and only changed to drizzle at the end. Water temps are a lot colder in late Feb vs mid Jan though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:44 PM, Barman49 said: Is it just me or does Upton seem pretty aggressive with 3-4 at JFK? I know it's a light south wind but that seems a bit optimistic no? Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Expand Yes I was thinking more like an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:44 PM, Barman49 said: Is it just me or does Upton seem pretty aggressive with 3-4 at JFK? I know it's a light south wind but that seems a bit optimistic no? Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Expand I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:47 PM, snowman19 said: Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48 Expand Gfs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:47 PM, LibertyBell said: Yes I was thinking more like an inch. Expand Surface cold takes a while to get scoured out This is a really cold airmass before the storm. I like 2-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:47 PM, snowman19 said: Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48No it didn't. You're using pos snow depth. Barely changed from previous run using that. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:48 PM, Snow88 said: Gfs? Expand I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:47 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinion Expand This event is entirely dependent on how much precip falls. As of now the temps outside of LI due to south flow aren’t a problem. PSU you in the mid Atlantic forum has been nailing the QPF scenario all week with the storm based off the jet orientation. If you look at the 18 GFS you could see why it produces more snow and QPF. It has the 250kt jet oriented perfectly in a WSW orientation to break out snow across our area. Meanwhile the NAM that 250kt jet core doesn't get going til after 21Z and a result by that time it’s warming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2-4 is a good bet, CT and HV 3-5. South facing shores less, maybe 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:47 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinionStill seems high for them. I can see northern areas of Manhattan/Bronx getting that. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 How in the world does Mt Holly not have Somerset County in a WWA? They are calling for 2 inches southern area and 4 inches for the northern part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:51 PM, snowman19 said: I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though Expand I think you just pay attention to the models that show the least snow but correct me if I’m wrong that’s just my opinion! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:54 PM, mikeysed said: How in the world does Mt Holly not have Somerset County in a WWA? They are calling for 2 inches southern area and 4 inches for the northern part... Expand They do. It’s been extended south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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