BxEngine Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: When did I say its warmer? It's not any better than 12z anywhere outside of the boros and Nassau county. Can you post the 12z and 18z for comparison sake? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z Gfs A tick colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I think most locations including my area in HV are going to get their snowfall in a 3-4 hour period from early afternoon to dark, then mixing and/or a reduction in precip intensity will occur. IMBY I'm thinking 3-4 is a good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 42 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A tick colder It is not colder bro it’s a warm outlier right now. Euro, icon, nam and ukmet are all colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: Can you post the 12z and 18z for comparison sake? Sure here's a QPF comparison to show why the 18z isn't better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t it silly to use the nam this far out? I don’t think so. I think that’s just a rumor that’s been around for a while. It’s showing pretty much what the 12z euro is showing. Also in the January 2015 storm NAM was right long range. But that’s just one example. Again, just my amateur weenie opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 18z euro ticked colder. 3-4 from the city west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 48 minutes ago, David-LI said: I don’t think so. I think that’s just a rumor that’s been around for a while. It’s showing pretty much what the 12z euro is showing. Also in the January 2015 storm NAM was right long range. But that’s just one example. Again, just my amateur weenie opinion. January 23rd 2016 euro is exactly what I had in mind. Looks similar to the nam 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Agreed, but hey I’m a cold weenie and I’m taking that run and running with it. Although GFS is going to shut me down now I’m sure let’s see! Which means like every other storm that you insist will lead to accumulations in NYC, there will be almost none. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: Which means like every other storm that you insist will lead to accumulations in NYC, there will be almost none. Come on man I’m not that bad am I? I know I give up late but that’s cause I’m a I just have a good feeling this time for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Eps ticked snowier also. Mean close to 3 for nyc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps ticked snowier also. Mean close to 3 for nyc I see nothing on stormvista for the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 This is a tricky event because the south flow and position of the high. Its definitely a case where EWR can see 6 and JFK 0 but sometimes here the southerly gradient is overestimated on models beyond 60-72 because what you end up with in the end is still a bit of a funky CAD type sig that sets up turning winds more ENE or forcing a lighter gradient than what the globals see a 3-4 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: This is a tricky event because the south flow and position of the high. Its definitely a case where EWR can see 6 and JFK 0 but sometimes here the southerly gradient is overestimated on models beyond 60-72 because what you end up with in the end is still a bit of a funky CAD type sig that sets up turning winds more ENE or forcing a lighter gradient than what the globals see a 3-4 days out I think there is no way Newark gets 6 inches and jfk gets 0, sorry I disagree! I think that’s impossible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think there is no way Newark gets 6 inches and jfk gets 0, sorry I disagree! I think that’s impossible! This late in the winter, even one this mild probably not because water temps are not as warm as they'd be on 12/1. But 5 or 6 vs 1-2 may happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Come on man I’m not that bad am I? I know I give up late but that’s cause I’m a I just have a good feeling this time for the rest of the winter. I know we will turn the corner this week into winter well into March. Just that you are running with clown maps days in advance since November when NYC Ave high was 50 throwing out accumulations and arguing why with nothing but a way off clown map to back you. You become chicken little after awhile. I know you love snow but the board has to be somewhat fact grounded to prevent it from becoming unreadable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 SREF mean hmdid go up slightly but still shows minimal accumulations. Figured I’d post it since no 0z runs came out yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: I know we will turn the corner this week into winter well into March. Just that you are running with clown maps days in advance since November when NYC Ave high was 50 throwing out accumulations and arguing why with nothing but a way off clown map to back you. You become chicken little after awhile. I know you love snow but the board has to be somewhat fact grounded to prevent it from becoming unreadable. Okay I’m sorry if you guys feel that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Okay I’m sorry if you guys feel that way I don't. Keep up the positive vibes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Okay I’m sorry if you guys feel that way I actually get a kick out of your posts. With the lack of big storms the past few years we've lost some of the nastier types, who couldn't tolerate any comment at all that wasn't discussing some model output. It made for tedious reading. Your posts are rarely tedious, I'll say that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 45 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This late in the winter, even one this mild probably not because water temps are not as warm as they'd be on 12/1. But 5 or 6 vs 1-2 may happen Newark is maybe 20 minutes north of me and yet there are many times it gets a few inches more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Okay I’m sorry if you guys feel that way He’s right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Seems the warm air comes in just in time to make this a non event for the city although its still close, seems its trended a bit better for NW of the city with less rain. Overall the system is looking more and more disorganized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Non event? Lol ok there buddy this is easily a 2 inch event for the city which would be the biggest for the city. Still far away though I think the upside for the city is about 2-3 inches, I get where you are coming from in this winter that would be a huge event lol. However I'd say more likely about an inch for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 33 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Non event? Lol ok there buddy this is easily a 2 inch event for the city which would be the biggest for the city. Still far away though I don't think the city breaks an inch. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Newark is maybe 20 minutes north of me and yet there are many times it gets a few inches more latitude sometimes really matters. Recall 3/1 and 3/3 earlier this year, where most of us in northern Middlesex County got 9-11" of snow, combined (I got 10.5"), while folks 5-10 miles south in East Brunswick and Sayreville only got 2-4" of snow/sleet with some rain. I even drove around the morning after one of those to see the gradient from Metuchen (5.5") to Highland Park (3") to New Brunswick (2") to East Brunswick (1"). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 anyone have the late nite Euro ? or any other model , asking for some friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6gfs continues to indicate very low qpf nnj into lower Hudson valley. Best guess 1 to maybe 3 inches of snow...to some drizzle or light rain. Overall this storm is more of a nuisance event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: anyone have the late nite Euro ? or any other model , asking for some friends The Euro backed off a bit on snowfall for the 95 corridor and towards the coast vs. the last couple of runs. Interestingly, the NWS offices kind of flip-flopped with their forecast snowfall, with the Philly office decreasing snowfall vs. yesterday's forecast, while the NYC office upped the snowfall forecast a fair amount. The two offices are moderately far apart at the boundaries between the offices (Passaic/Essex/Union/SI vs. Sussex/Morris/Somerset/Middlesex) - hopefully these discontinuities are cleared up before the event or someone will be wrong, lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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