binbisso Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 That's a nice run by the euro. .6 l e from my area with 4in of that being snow I'll take that any day. My feeling is that the southerly flow at the surface is very weak until we're several hours into the precipitation field and as others have posted 850s stay below 32 degrees the entire storm. Temperatures are going to struggle to get above freezing until we're well Into the Storm especially the further away from the coast you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 6:52 PM, NEG NAO said: 850's well below 0 still well entrenched over the whole area at 12z Saturday - also Sunday 12Z - anybody have 0Z Sunday 850 ? Expand 850 do get above 0 Celsius between 8 and 9 p.m. for most of the area but barely 4 northwest suburbs so I stand corrected in my post above 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 6:52 PM, NEG NAO said: 850's well below 0 still well entrenched over the whole area at 12z Saturday - also Sunday 12Z - anybody have 0Z Sunday 850 ? Expand Ditto to @binbisso post. The flatter look out west allows for a colder tick. We also do better with the waa precipitation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18z NAM looks slightly weaker and colder for the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Nam is basically an all snow event! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 8:52 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Nam is basically an all snow event! Expand I would love to believe that but...would like to see Nam closer to its wheelhouse ...which i guess would be tomm oz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 8:44 PM, David-LI said: 18z NAM looks slightly weaker and colder for the coast Expand Same result as 12z. Worse for basically everyone not in the boros or Nassau 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:05 PM, David-LI said: I did say "slightly" and "coast" Expand Its not warmer elsewhere, just a minimal event(4-6 in the HV and catskills in mid Jan is nuisance stuff). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:02 PM, Ericjcrash said: Same result as 12z. Worse for basically everyone not in the boros or Nassau Expand No it’s definitely colder. Precip looks good too. Don’t see how this isn’t a better run for the majority in this sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:02 PM, Ericjcrash said: Same result as 12z. Worse for basically everyone not in the boros or Nassau Expand What are you talking about! It’s for sure colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:08 PM, Ericjcrash said: Its not warmer elsewhere, just a minimal event(4-6 in the HV and catskills in mid Jan is nuisance stuff). Expand Its colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Nothing has changed whatsoever, it’s still 1-3 inches at best, 1” or less near the city: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011518&fh=84 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 the city is not getting 6 from this. Maybe 2 to possibly 3 inches. (which would be a huge win) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:27 PM, Brian5671 said: the city is not getting 6 from this. Maybe 2 to possibly 3 inches. (which would be a huge win) Expand 3-4 is not out of the question if this thing trends a little colder. It’s very cold and dry before the storm moves in. And the gradient between the dry air and precipitation could halt any warm air advection before we thump 3-4 inches of snow! It’s happened before it could happen again. 3-6 meaning region wide not Central Park! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:29 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: 3-4 is not out of the question if this thing trends a little colder. It’s very cold and dry before the storm moves in. And the gradient between the dry air and precipitation could halt any warm air advection before we thump 3-4 inches of snow! It’s happened before it could happen again. 3-6 meaning region wide not Central Park! Expand N and W for sure on the higher end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 If someone could explain how both the Euro & NAM came in colder but you have the LP up in the great lakes and the high goes from NE of us to off the MA coast but somehow the cold air stays longer. How is this happening? Can't be from the low DP or evap cooling. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:36 PM, Barman49 said: If someone could explain how both the Euro & NAM came in colder but you have the LP up in the great lakes and the high goes from NE of us to off the MA coast but somehow the cold air stays longer. How is this happening? Can't be from the low DP or evap cooling. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Expand It’s because the primary is coming in weaker, decreasing the warm air invasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:27 PM, Brian5671 said: the city is not getting 6 from this. Maybe 2 to possibly 3 inches. (which would be a huge win) Expand Who said the city is getting 6? 2 inches though is a definite possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:29 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: 3-4 is not out of the question if this thing trends a little colder. It’s very cold and dry before the storm moves in. And the gradient between the dry air and precipitation could halt any warm air advection before we thump 3-4 inches of snow! It’s happened before it could happen again. 3-6 meaning region wide not Central Park! Expand I hate to be the one to tell you this but there is going to be a 65 mph SW jet at 850 mb at hour 78 on the 18z NAM. That jet is not going to be bringing in colder air either. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:39 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: Who said the city is getting 6? 2 inches though is a definite possibility. Expand I said 3-6 area wide is a possibility. Lower end in the city and northern suburbs could get 6 inches. I’m just going with the trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:38 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s because the primary is coming in weaker, decreasing the warm air invasion. I get that part if the HP stayed up in NE but it doesn't it's SE of us. That's shifting the wind to the south. I understand the front end might be colder. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 8:52 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Nam is basically an all snow event! Expand Come on Tonyfeen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:44 PM, Rjay said: Come on Tonyfeen Expand It does change to some light rain at the end as the surface warms but still 80% of the storm is frozen can’t deny that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:42 PM, Enigma said: Expand Looks about right to me as of now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:46 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: It does change to some light rain at the end as the surface warms but still 80% of the storm is frozen can’t deny that! Expand Long range NAM.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:47 PM, Rjay said: Long range NAM.... Expand Agreed, but hey I’m a cold weenie and I’m taking that run and running with it. Although GFS is going to shut me down now I’m sure let’s see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:10 PM, Sn0waddict said: No it’s definitely colder. Precip looks good too. Don’t see how this isn’t a better run for the majority in this sub forum. Expand On 1/15/2020 at 9:18 PM, Snow88 said: Its colder Expand On 1/15/2020 at 9:14 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: What are you talking about! It’s for sure colder. Expand When did I say its warmer? It's not any better than 12z anywhere outside of the boros and Nassau county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 9:46 PM, Rjay said: Looks about right to me as of now. Expand Agreed. Pretty solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18z Gfs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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