jm1220 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: And it's going to be amped too. Bad track and marginal air mass. Pretty much a non event for a good chunk of us which is fine because in a way, I prefer mostly rain to washed away snow. I’m flying out of JFK on Sat afternoon, so I’d prefer all or mainly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: I’m flying out of JFK on Sat afternoon, so I’d prefer all or mainly rain. I'm going out of LGA Sunday morning-headed to CO to ski for a week-I'll get my fill of snow out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 52 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I don't have info to back this up but as per local mets and stats ive been reading, we get most of our snow after the 20th of january He posted statistics for this date, he didn't make the numbers up by dividing the days in the season. We are statistically behind where we should be for this time of year. However, most of our big storms are, statistically, after the 20th of January. Very often those seasons that end up below average at the end of the January, wind up below average at the conclusion of the season as well. If we don't get the ball rolling soon, then the statistics are no in our favor. This is where people freak out. I didn't say winter would be over, just that statistically it would not look as rosy. With stats though, there is a first for everything. I remain optimistic, however there are some clouds forming on that optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: He posted statistics for this date, he didn't make the numbers up by dividing the days in the season. We are statistically behind where we should be for this time of year. However, most of our big storms are, statistically, after the 20th of January. Very often those seasons that end up below average at the end of the January, wind up below average at the conclusion of the season as well. If we don't get the ball rolling soon, then the statistics are no in our favor. This is where people freak out. I didn't say winter would be over, just that statistically it would not look as rosy. With stats though, there is a first for everything. I remain optimistic, however there are some clouds forming on that optimism. if we get to 2/1 and we're still where we are now, it's all but over-usually if the pattern doesn't really change by then, it's not going to. Last year is a good example-we did get a 6-10 day stretch in early March but by and large things stayed the same, mild and relatively snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I usually start worrying during the 2nd week of February when the daily means start to inch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: if we get to 2/1 and we're still where we are now, it's all but over-usually if the pattern doesn't really change by then, it's not going to. Last year is a good example-we did get a 6-10 day stretch in early March but by and large things stayed the same, mild and relatively snowless I hear you. I just hate snowless winters. All the gloomy with none of the fun and a waste of being too cold to enjoy the outdoors. With snow the world looks magical and you can go outside and enjoy it. You don't have to worry about sinking in feet of mud and muck. My least favorite season is spring until late May (sometimes June). I am a winter and summer guy, and most falls aren't bad either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said: I hear you. I just hate snowless winters. All the gloomy with none of the fun and a waste of being too cold to enjoy the outdoors. With snow the world looks magical and you can go outside and enjoy it. You don't have to worry about sinking in feet of mud and muck. My least favorite season is spring until late May (sometimes June). I am a winter and summer guy, and most falls aren't bad either. Completely agree-if it's not going to snow, give me what we had this weekend... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 And the pattern that was changing...stays exactly the same Cutter to rain Let’s see how last week of January does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: And the pattern that was changing...stays exactly the same Cutter to rain Let’s see how last week of January does To be fair the real pattern change doesn’t start until after the 20th. We are currently reshuffling the pac to a better look. If it were to snow Saturday it would be a bonus before the pac improves. The wheels of change are already in motion as tomorrow will be the last warm day for a while. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: To be fair the real pattern change doesn’t start until after the 20th. We are currently reshuffling the pac to a better look. If it were to snow Saturday it would be a bonus before the pac improves. The wheels of change are already in motion as tomorrow will be the last warm day for a while. Let’s be honest weather isn’t exact science and models are usually wrong. Past 2-3 days I don’t believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Let’s be honest weather isn’t exact science and models are usually wrong. Past 2-3 days I don’t believe it But that doesn’t change the fact that this is a bad h5 set up for snow in nyc. Can it change back to more of a look we had a few days ago? Sure! But I wouldn’t bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This is a 2-4 inches of snow in my opinion. It’s a good thump followed by rain! You know models always underestimate dynamic and evaporative cooling that’s a fact. So whatever the models show the rain snow line, take it down another 20 miles at least south. 4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Let’s be honest weather isn’t exact science and models are usually wrong. Past 2-3 days I don’t believe it So far this season you have been far too optimistic with your snowfall forecasts. It is usually about the same time you give your prediction that the models start showing a warmer solution and bringing in more rain. Not to gang up on you, but what did you do to anger Old Man Winter this year? Next storm let's hold off until your 2-3 day range to see maybe you have a string of bad luck this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Can somebody post Euro snow map if possible? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: So far this season you have been far too optimistic with your snowfall forecasts. It is usually about the same time you give your prediction that the models start showing a warmer solution and bringing in more rain. Not to gang up on you, but what did you do to anger Old Man Winter this year? Next storm let's hold off until your 2-3 day range to see maybe you have a string of bad luck this season. I’ve been saying this is a 2-4 inches followed by rain. I don’t like the setup. I do like the cold for a quick snow event followed by rain unless the precip gets shredded. If it comes in like a wall we’ll get a decent thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: We’re halfway through Met winter and NYC has under 3”. That’s well below average at this point-about one third of average in fact. By now Central Park should be at 8”. Islip is at 4.7” and should be at 8.8”. Bridgeport’s at 5.7” and should be at 9.2”. We still have a long way to go but it’s not whining to say it’s been a very lousy season so far. Yes but in statistical reality to balance out the well above decade of snowfall eventually you have to have below normal winters. It is normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, West Mtn NY said: Yes but in statistical reality to balance out the well above decade of snowfall eventually you have to have below normal winters. It is normal After the Jan 87 storm , we didn't see any significant snow in so long the Star Ledger ran a feature on whatever happened to winter, which IIRC was in 1991. Then 93 and 94 came and people were shocked at how harsh winter could sometimes be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Are we outside the NAM's range? I need a weenie model to cheer me up. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 54 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: And the pattern that was changing...stays exactly the same Cutter to rain Let’s see how last week of January does MJO stage 5 doesn't help. If we can get it to 7-8-1, then we talk action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: Are we outside the NAM's range? I need a weenie model to cheer me up. By tomorrow we will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 29 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I’ve been saying this is a 2-4 inches followed by rain. I don’t like the setup. I do like the cold for a quick snow event followed by rain unless the precip gets shredded. If it comes in like a wall we’ll get a decent thump Yeah but based on today’s trends it’s going to be hard to even get that 2-4 in the metro area. I’d personally go for an inch or less in Manhattan and similar for southern Westchester. Maybe 2 inches in parts. Northern Westchester maybe 1-3. Just not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 hours ago, Enigma said: Adamantly disagree with your limited assessment. I've had about enough of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Gfs is quicker with the front end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is quicker with the front end Yeh but that Blob of Green up to Saginaw doesnt give me a warm fuzzy feeling for the back end 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Yeh but that Blob of Green up to Saginaw doesnt give me a warm fuzzy feeling for the back end Nor does the low over northern Lake Michigan! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Hopefully this changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Hopefully this changes Looks like a rainy version of NEMO 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks like a rainy version of NEMO 2013. good track just need to speed up that cold air injection that's in the great lakes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Euro has never liked this storm for our area, it's why I wasn't too excited even when the GFS looked good a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 This storm is going to cut, it's never been a good setup and this is definitely a snow to rain event, the only question or thing that keeps a me a little intrigued is the strength of the initial CAD and if precip moves in faster than modeled. So far this winter nothing has really worked out so would lean toward an inch or less event changing to rain more than an initial thump but I can see where an initial thump could happen in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Forget initial thump, this storm keeps having less and less overall QPF each run, seems like light snow to light rain Looking more and more like a pure cutter which might actually be good for this area in terms of not getting a drenching rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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