Enigma Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 57 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Disagree, this isn’t a storm coming in from the south where we thump ahead of a warm front, it’s a SWFE cutter. Southerly winds get going early before the precip arrives. The BL will warm quickly for anyone East of the Hudson River, decent chance it starts off as rain and may only go to White rain before we lose the dew point depression on the warm advection Adamantly disagree with your limited assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Even though the primary low came in more amped on the GFS, it actually came in colder this run thanks to the stout CAD. Slight uptick on the clown maps for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS has this more of a significant inland event - immediate NYC metro much less This map is awful to use as it includes sleet. Not the event for a map like this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, NEG NAO said: instead of just being critical of what I post - also add your 2 cents - what you think will happen - if you have a better map post it ! I did. It’s posted above. My thoughts haven’t changed. 2-4 for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I remember light southerly winds for the 6" Feb 2008 snowfall...it was weird seeing it snow hard coming from the south...the very light winds were the key and it came a month later in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The south winds are a big problem. That isn’t always the case because sometimes you can have a high in this location and an approaching system from the same area but the system is weaker and hence the gradient is light. In mid to late January we could survive on a 5-7kt south flow and snow for awhile but not on a 15-25kt one. This was always a 1-3 inch to all rain event for the metro area on Saturday, I’m not sure why it was hyped by some into anything more than that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Need to stop the amped trend or this will turn quickly into festive flakes then rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This was always a 1-3 inch to all rain event for the metro area on Saturday, I’m not sure why it was hyped by some into anything more than that Well for one your definition of the metro area is somewhat limited. There's a lot of us out here that live 40 miles and more north of the city that may get 6 inches out of this, for what's been going on the last four weeks that would be a major win. If your just referring to the city and south I agree with you. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 42 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Need to stop the amped trend or this will turn quickly into festive flakes then rain We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) The SE ridge is gone on the backside of this. The 20th. This ushers in the change that has been spoken about. As far as this system these always warm on the coast as you get closer as the H slips NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) Euro is more amped and north this run. Very little snow for the metro area and 1-3 north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 0 from CNJ into the 5 boroughs and across LI. S winds will do that when the center cuts to Toronto. Looks right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: 0 from CNJ into the 5 boroughs and across LI. S winds will do that when the center cuts to Toronto. Looks right. Another storm where cold air is wasted . Unbelievable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Stronger lows in the eastern Lakes won't work out here....I could see a mainly rain event if that trend continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Another storm where cold air is wasted . Unbelievable. You are still in p5. This was never a snowstorm for the coast. Pattern changes after the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: Stronger lows in the eastern Lakes won't work out here....I could see a mainly rain event if that trend continues The Euro rains to Albany at the end. That`s how far N the warm punch gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 reminds me of a storm last year on this same weekend-trended warmer and warmer right up to the event-got a sloppy inch here and then it rained moderately all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, PB-99 said: The Euro rains to Albany at the end. That`s how far N the warm punch gets Yikes. Another trend with these SWFE type events is they try to cut as much as possible. If anything it might just keep amping up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, PB-99 said: You are still in p5. This was never a snowstorm for the coast. Pattern changes after the 20th Hopefully it does because this winter is getting tiring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: reminds me of a storm last year on this same weekend-trended warmer and warmer right up to the event-got a sloppy inch here and then it rained moderately all day If the pattern doesn't support snow then it won't happen. MJO 5/6 is a big SE ridge signal so we shouldn't be shocked it trended more amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hopefully it does because this winter is getting tiring. close the shades for a week. It's not worth losing sleep over. More important things in life... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Whole system is drying up for us, regardless of type...only around 0.50" or so now on euro...been a dry month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I never understood why anybody at the coast gets hyped for events like this. SWFE events without a true arctic airmass in place are pretty much non events for us coasties. 2-4 at best washed away by rain does nothing for me personally. It's been a winter of non events thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: I never understood why anybody at the coast gets hyped for events like this. SWFE events without a true arctic airmass in place are pretty much non events for us coasties. 2-4 at best washed away by rain does nothing for me personally. It's been a winter of non events thus far. Agree. And it was not even a true arctic airmass. Once this became slower and drier we were in trouble. By the time precip gets here we are warmer with south winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Can somebody post Euro snow map if possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Agree. And it was not even a true arctic airmass. Once this became slower and drier we were in trouble. By the time precip gets here we are warmer with south winds This is clearly headed to a mostly all rain event even N and W of the city, if these trends continue it will be less than an inch of snow to all rain Saturday even N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: Historically there is less than a 20 % chance of a White Christmas in NYC. Historically the first 6"snow in Boston is 1/18. You people whine like we should be buried since mid December. Climo clowns We’re halfway through Met winter and NYC has under 3”. That’s well below average at this point-about one third of average in fact. By now Central Park should be at 8”. Islip is at 4.7” and should be at 8.8”. Bridgeport’s at 5.7” and should be at 9.2”. We still have a long way to go but it’s not whining to say it’s been a very lousy season so far. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We’re halfway through Met winter and NYC has under 3”. That’s well below average at this point-about one third of average in fact. By now Central Park should be at 8”. Islip is at 4.7” and should be at 8.8”. Bridgeport’s at 5.7” and should be at 9.2”. We still have a long way to go but it’s not whining to say it’s been a very lousy season so far. I have yet to take out a snow shovel or snow blower. Big 5 gallon bucket of rock salt has been sitting in my garage untouched since Dec '18. Feels like the 1980's have come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Agree. And it was not even a true arctic airmass. Once this became slower and drier we were in trouble. By the time precip gets here we are warmer with south winds And it's going to be amped too. Bad track and marginal air mass. Pretty much a non event for a good chunk of us which is fine because in a way, I prefer mostly rain to washed away snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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