Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Enigma said:

 

Youre wrong.

I could be, we'll find out Saturday. The setup could also change a lot, I'm just basing it off what the 0Z GFS is showing

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'd go with the most knowledgeable posters here; this is likely 1-3 and then rain. I can only remember one of these that delivered close to 8, and that was in 2008 during a two winter snow drought....these storms often flip over fast.

I can remember several storms like this that were 3+ ending in rain, most recently was November 2018. I would prefer if precip was coming from the south rather than the west but I still like this setup more than any we've had so far this winter.

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

These are Long Island numbers

youre right

 

we has more snow than NYC

luck. 

Thought so. The city itself and just west haven't had a good dump in awhile. Jan '18 was decent in  the city but just west it was a struggle. And once you get into March the big snows leave us alone, at least a sea level. 8-10 inches is a real success, and doesn't happen that often. But I know plenty of folks that think we get way too much snow and if they never saw another flake they would be thrilled. They, too, are living in the wrong part of the country....

[HVSnowLover]

CMC is about 4 hours of moderate snow for the city before the flip

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I can remember several storms like this that were 3+ ending in rain, most recently was November 2018. I would prefer if precip was coming from the south rather than the west but I still like this setup more than any we've had so far this winter.

You're a bit further north and probably change over a little later in these set ups. So you might do alright ( in this winter 3-4 is alright ).

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

You're a bit further north and probably change over a little later in these set ups. So you might do alright ( in this winter 3-4 is alright ).

Yes 3-4 inches would be awesome in this winter, 1-3 inches would be the biggest snowfall this winter for most of the immediate metro area lol  

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The best forcing on the GFS is over NJ and NYC, I really doubt heavy precip is going to flip to rain in the middle of the night with 850s and 925 temps below freezing  but I could be wrong.  

GFS has up to 30 mph SSE wind as the heavy precip is cranking. The boundary layer is definitely going to warm up near the coast on that. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, jm1220 said:

GFS has up to 30 mph SSE wind as the heavy precip is cranking. The boundary layer is definitely going to warm up near the coast on that. 

That's really the kiss of death. Ain't got a prayer with strong southerly winds.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

0Z GFS warmer and further north. No snow for the immediate metro area.

Precip maps show snow until hour 120, however the surface is torching so its white rain for the City/LI

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS has up to 30 mph SSE wind as the heavy precip is cranking. The boundary layer is definitely going to warm up near the coast on that. 

Yea I see what you mean, the wind coming off the ocean is a disaster in this setup. Phl/DC may do better than NYC in this kind of setup.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I see what you mean, the wind coming off the ocean is a disaster in this setup. Phl/DC may do better than NYC in this kind of setup.

I'll not be surprised in the least if, by the time the storm rolls around, it won't look like much to talk about. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'll not be surprised in the least if, by the time the storm rolls around, it won't look like much to talk about. 

It seems like there'll be a few hour period at the start where we all snow and the southerly wind hasn't torched things too bad yet, but the meat of the storm also looks to be when those onshore winds crank and places near the ocean spike to the upper 30s or 40. 850/925 could be as cold as it wants-it's rain when that happens and the ocean is mild from the warm conditions lately.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, jm1220 said:

It seems like there'll be a few hour period at the start where we all snow and the southerly wind hasn't torched things too bad yet, but the meat of the storm also looks to be when those onshore winds crank and places near the ocean spike to the upper 30s or 40. 850/925 could be as cold as it wants-it's rain when that happens and the ocean is mild from the warm conditions lately.

Yea where I am I might be able to hang on to 33-35 Snow for a little while,  once it's above 35 it's complete white rain or just rain. Either way looks like a NW of I287 storm again only this time at least for those areas it will be snow instead of ice

[Enigma]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea where I am I might be able to hang on to 33-35 Snow for a little while,  once it's above 35 it's complete white rain or just rain. Either way looks like a NW of I287 storm again only this time at least for those areas it will be snow instead of ice

Synoptics. Get a handle on it already. This is NOT a 287 event. Everyone snows heavily for 2-4 hours with 1-1.5 in per hour rates. It turns to some rain. Everyone on the board accumulates.

[SnoSki14]

Saturdays event likely marks the start of our new pattern. I think a 2-4" front-ender still looks reasonable. 

There's another threat near the 23/24 that'll bear watching. Beyond that things will continue to trend even better.

Record amplitude MJO could really help activate the subtropical jet as widespread cold descends on us. Nino response with phase 8 in Feb would scream KU potential.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I question some of those numbers; I am just west of SI. No way we had 43 in 2009; 2013 was just about average. 2015, 2017 and 2018 are also off. These seem like LI numbers maybe?

Indeed.  Specifically, that record is from BNL (Upton):

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

Mine are roughly similar with year to year variations (distance between the 2 locations is about 17 miles):

http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SmithtownDailySnowfall.pdf

 

 

 

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, Enigma said:

Synoptics. Get a handle on it already. This is NOT a 287 event. Everyone snows heavily for 2-4 hours with 1-1.5 in per hour rates. It turns to some rain. Everyone on the board accumulates.

Yep, even 5 days out, every global model is showing some snow for the Philly-NYC corridor and even towards the coast, with the usual SE to NW, less to more snow gradient being likely.  Surprised nobody posted the relevant model output - here you go.  Note that most of the snow for the 95 corridor looks to fall between early afternoon and late evening, depending on the model - I included maps through Sunday morning to include total snowfall through New England.  If I could lock in the 2-3" the Euro shows for me now I would (let alone the 5-6" on the GFS/CMC).  

 

 

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

GFS has up to 30 mph SSE wind as the heavy precip is cranking. The boundary layer is definitely going to warm up near the coast on that. 

Still waiting on that storm track change.  Other then that this one can still produce our first low end plowable event if it comes in like a wall. Feb 14 showed us what a wall of snow can do even right at the coast. It will be more of a now cast to see just how much lift we can get at the onset. A quick 2-4” more north less south scenario seems reasonable right now

[wdrag]

Good Tuesday morning the 14th.  I added here and in the originating post the NWS ensemble forecast for 3+" of snow sleet (higher than yesterday and similar to the EPS). The EPS has also been added courtesy Weather.US and the ECMWF TOS.  You can see a break down of confidence n of I84 in the EPS, til you get to the Adirondacks. In any case,  the modeled chill via the 00z/14 GFS MOS and the ECMWF 2m temps appears to me to make it lock for hazardous travel on on all untreated surfaces Saturday afternoon when you get northwest of NYC tho it could be snow quickly to sleet-freezing rain with snow accumulation limited by duration of snow prior to the phase change. This system to me just doesn't have much chance for NYC being a big snow event, due to the track of the shortwave. Should it dig more, then there'd be a little more hope but I'd like to see southeast flow at 850 MB instead of strong southwest.  Just not a good winter for us... but I'll take what little I can get. I only post ensemble guidance once/day since there are so many nuanced changes and I'd rather try to capture the essence of trends over several model cycles while still 3+ days  from the event.  652A/14

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Still waiting on that storm track change.  Other then that this one can still produce our first low end plowable event if it comes in like a wall. Feb 14 showed us what a wall of snow can do even right at the coast. It will be more of a now cast to see just how much lift we can get at the onset. A quick 2-4” more north less south scenario seems reasonable right now

Yep. If it comes in shredded or dries up, it’ll be very forgettable for anyone near the coast. The coast will be very much on borrowed time due to the strong south winds. Maybe in a pure arctic airmass that can fly but not with this. 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep. If it comes in shredded or dries up, it’ll be very forgettable for anyone near the coast. The coast will be very much on borrowed time due to the strong south winds. Maybe in a pure arctic airmass that can fly but not with this. 

The airmass before the storm is really cold

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The airmass before the storm is really cold

it's not purely arctic and winds off the relatively warm water will change it quick-I'd expect an inch or less right on the south coast of LI, NC and NJ coast unless something changes

[495weatherguy]

8 hours ago, Enigma said:

Synoptics. Get a handle on it already. This is NOT a 287 event. Everyone snows heavily for 2-4 hours with 1-1.5 in per hour rates. It turns to some rain. Everyone on the board accumulates.

Awful early for a professional Met to make such a definitive proclamation. 

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The airmass before the storm is really cold

It’s cold but it’s not unmodified arctic, the boundary layer is going to warm rather quickly when the winds flip. This is starting to look like a 1-3 event for the metro area

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s cold but it’s not unmodified arctic, the boundary layer is going to warm rather quickly when the winds flip. This is starting to look like a 1-3 event for the metro area

I agree

[Big Jims Videos]

Ocean is 46 degrees in Belmar. That's above normal for this time of year.  

[qg_omega]

8 hours ago, Enigma said:

Synoptics. Get a handle on it already. This is NOT a 287 event. Everyone snows heavily for 2-4 hours with 1-1.5 in per hour rates. It turns to some rain. Everyone on the board accumulates.

Disagree, this isn’t a storm coming in from the south where we thump ahead of a warm front, it’s a SWFE cutter.  Southerly winds get going early before the precip arrives.  The BL will warm quickly for anyone East of the Hudson River, decent chance it starts off as rain and may only go to White rain before we lose the dew point depression on the warm advection

[HeadInTheClouds]

Was it ever going to be more than a 1-3/2-4 event for the coast? Not really. It's looking like a 3-6 event by me north of 84. It was 68 degrees last weekend so I'll take it and run. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's not purely arctic and winds off the relatively warm water will change it quick-I'd expect an inch or less right on the south coast of LI, NC and NJ coast unless something changes

This is a 2-4 inches of snow in my opinion. It’s a good thump followed by rain! You know models always underestimate dynamic and evaporative cooling that’s a fact. So whatever the models show the rain snow line, take it down another 20 miles at least south.

[SnowGoose69]

51 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Disagree, this isn’t a storm coming in from the south where we thump ahead of a warm front, it’s a SWFE cutter.  Southerly winds get going early before the precip arrives.  The BL will warm quickly for anyone East of the Hudson River, decent chance it starts off as rain and may only go to White rain before we lose the dew point depression on the warm advection

The south winds are a big problem.  That isn’t always the case because sometimes you can have a high in this location and an approaching system from the same area but the system is weaker and hence the gradient is light.  In mid to late January we could survive on a 5-7kt south flow and snow for awhile but not on a 15-25kt one.