White Gorilla Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend. Nothing is locked yet but we can be fairly confident about snow to start with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend. In our good winters we’d barely bat an eye at this but this winter, a snow event enough to plow/shovel might as well be a hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 And nothing’s guaranteed at all yet. We need a strong and locked in high. If that isn’t around, it’s a very quick slop to rain for most of us. A strong high can also eat much of the initial precip up in dry air. So still a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend. I don’t understand the point of this post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The euro has a 990 southeast of Maine for the middle of week system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: The euro has a 990 southeast of Maine for the middle of week system 988 to be exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1044 high over the lakes.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: In our good winters we’d barely bat an eye at this but this winter, a snow event enough to plow/shovel might as well be a hecs. I've yet to have snow cover for over 12 hours so yeah it's been pitiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Going to be incorrect on my guess lol. Euro is further north at 12z with the primary. It’s over Chicago now compared to central Illinois at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 992 into southeast Canada. Front end snows move in Saturday afternoon. Coast goes to rain rather quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I know beggars cant be choosers, but the rain to snow systems are so much cooler They seem to usually work out less well though, I always trust front end snow more than back end snow to really happen even though it stinks when front end snow gets washed away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 1044 high over the lakes.... 0c line is in the mid Atlantic Could be the bias of the Euro. Interesting week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro is 2-4 along the coast and 4-8 north and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend. It was colder but decreased QPF and also has the boundary level warm at the coast however we know the GFS can get warm biased with the boundary layer. The setup the GFS is showing I think is a solid 3-6 inches at least for the Metro area. The fact the Euro is still way NW and more amped with the primary tells me the setup is still far from decided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0c line is in the mid Atlantic Could be the bias of the Euro. Interesting week ahead. We can’t have it that amped out in the Midwest. One thing to look for is how Chicago makes out. If they remain all snow it’s better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We can’t have it that amped out in the Midwest. One thing to look for is how Chicago makes out. If they remain all snow it’s better for us. Definitely Always the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The main difference between the Gfs and euro is just how much it digs out in the Midwest. The Gfs has less digging and lowers hgts out east. The euro is also stronger with the energy out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 With current depiction, I would expect significant (3" - 4"+) on ground after the storm has passed for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z euro 996 over Chicago while 00z had a 1008 over central Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro is 2-4 along the coast and 4-8 north and west. It's better than nothing. The Euro could be overdoing the amplification, it has a tendency to do so. On the other hand the MJO will be in phase 6 which tends to yield higher heights over us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It's better than nothing. The Euro could be overdoing the amplification, it has a tendency to do so. On the other hand the MJO will be in phase 6 which tends to yield higher heights over us. I’d look for the SE ridge to be amplified, since models often underdo this ridge this far out, and it would cause more amplification. I don’t think it’s a deal killer for there to be a more amped primary low, we need the high north of us to anchor for a while and keep us cool enough for the initial burst of snow. We already know it won’t stay snow to the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just miss a 990mb snowstorm next Thursday on the euro. It will most definitely change by 00z but we are finally seeing the change to a more optimistic snow pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The eps mean mirrors the op. 2-4/3-5 type event with a stronger primary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: I don’t understand the point of this post. The point of the post is people seeing what they want to see. People posting "basically an all snow event on the GFS". This is a textbook 2-4" to rain event. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 This isn’t going to be all snow. This is a fairly typical SWFE that will change over but hopefully with a strong enough high to make the front end be snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 All snow in the Catskills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, sferic said: All snow in the Catskills? No I think he lives in Metuchen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, sferic said: All snow in the Catskills? Yep and then some! Enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: We can’t have it that amped out in the Midwest. One thing to look for is how Chicago makes out. If they remain all snow it’s better for us. Absolutely incorrect. Completely different setups. Coastal snow will breakout with isentropic lift from advancing warm front running into a very decent CAD signature. Chicago is none of that. 22 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This isn’t going to be all snow. This is a fairly typical SWFE that will change over but hopefully with a strong enough high to make the front end be snow. This isn't a SWFE or gradient type system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 NWS Albany latest discussion on the storm. Right now looking pretty good 40-50 miles N and W of NYC. Active winter weather expected to return on Saturday, as a primary cyclone is forecast to track from the Midwest to the lower Great Lakes. Southerly flow and isentropic lift will increase in our area ahead of the eastward advancing cyclone. Model guidance in fairly good agreement with regards to the track/intensity of this system. There is increasing probability for a moderate to heavy snowfall across much if not the entire region, as both 12Z deterministic and ensemble guidance support this trend. Guidance indicating a Miller Type B system, with a secondary coastal cyclone developing Saturday night near SE New England. At this time it appears most of the precip in our area would be from the primary cyclone. With the southerly flow regime at 925-850 mb, local research indicates the maximum snowfall to set up across the southern Adirondacks, the Glens Falls/Saratoga region and the southern Greens of VT. While thermal profiles have shown a cooling trend, there could still be a chance of mixing for areas SE of Albany Saturday night as thermal profiles become borderline as the primary cyclone tracks just north and west of our area. Still too early for specific snow accumulation numbers, but will mention possibility of moderate to heavy snowfall in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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