RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 58 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: I can smell the bust from here haha. Seems like the qpf is overdone.. like several have mentioned the majority of the snow falling would be WAA snow - not saying 6-7” couldn’t fall from that, but I’d at least slice those numbers in half, especially around here with the slop that will likely mix in. Travelers advisory incoming. Trying to play on cuteness of this past weekend, lol. Our office notes that 70 members of the Euro & GFS ENS show 3+ and list several positive differences from the weekend disaster. Gotta give this one a shot at breaking our losing streak 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 i see a frozen mud situation in backyards for the chicago area, maybe some flurry action later in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 i see a frozen mud situation in backyards for the chicago area, maybe some flurry action later in the weekAs is tradition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: i see a frozen mud situation in backyards for the chicago area, maybe some flurry action later in the week Did 18z GFS just crap the bed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 18z GFS is noticeably slower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It's GFS. Enough said. Probably going to see a lot of fluctuations the next several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: It's GFS. Enough said. Probably going to see a lot of fluctuations the next several days This, we're in model flip flopping range rn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 days out is 5 days too many to figure it out 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: 5 days out is 5 days too many to figure it out Less than 4 days out now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 One would think with that strong high storm track will be limited on how north it can get but that depends on how east the high gets and how strong. Pretty confident there will be a large swath of accumulating snow and an icing zone but how far south this gets remains to be seen. I'm pretty confident I80 north will see a decent event but unsure south of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: One would think with that strong high storm track will be limited on how north it can get but that depends on how east the high gets and how strong. Pretty confident there will be a large swath of accumulating snow and an icing zone but how far south this gets remains to be seen. I'm pretty confident I80 north will see a decent event but unsure south of there And the timing, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 18z GEFS are a tick south of 12z...Hopefully op run was just a blip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It seems this storm is going pretty straight west to east. It also seems for me the highest snowfalls are always the ones going SW to NE, so I can't see this being a hugh snowstorm. I sure hope I am wrong. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, wxman1952 said: It seems this storm is going pretty straight west to east. It also seems for me the highest snowfalls are always the ones going SW to NE, so I can't see this being a hugh snowstorm. I sure hope I am wrong. lol GHD II? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Unlike the previous storm, we have a decent airmass present. Now it becomes a question of low placement. With the current path, I’d imagine the Illinois/Wisconsin border as the rain/snow line. If the low pushes further north or south, that would obviously change. For I-80 and points south to have any shot at decent snow, I’d want to see a low path about 150 miles south of where it currently is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: GHD II? That is the storm I thought of after seeing his post and before reading yours lol. Generally speaking I think he's right though... the biggest ones typically are pointed ENE or NE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: That is the storm I thought of after seeing his post and before reading yours lol. Generally speaking I think he's right though... the biggest ones typically are pointed ENE or NE. The Super Bowl Blizzard! Fond memories of shoveling snow up to my head & constantly worrying about branches falling onto the roof 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 43 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: And the timing, right? Yea definitely could slow down. 14 minutes ago, mimillman said: Unlike the previous storm, we have a decent airmass present. Now it becomes a question of low placement. With the current path, I’d imagine the Illinois/Wisconsin border as the rain/snow line. If the low pushes further north or south, that would obviously change. For I-80 and points south to have any shot at decent snow, I’d want to see a low path about 150 miles south of where it currently is. Well even with it's current track on models today it's still getting accumulating snow well south of I80. But for significant accumulations this south I agree a much more south track would be needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea definitely could slow down. Well even with it's current track on models today it's still getting accumulating snow well south of I80. But for significant accumulations this south I agree a much more south track would be needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Unlike the previous storm, we have a decent airmass present. Now it becomes a question of low placement. With the current path, I’d imagine the Illinois/Wisconsin border as the rain/snow line. If the low pushes further north or south, that would obviously change. For I-80 and points south to have any shot at decent snow, I’d want to see a low path about 150 miles south of where it currently is.Do you mean rain including freezing rain or just plain rain and snow line? You're ignoring the strength of the departing surface high. My biggest concern is WAA resulting in a quicker flip to an icy mix but I'm not concerned about temps below freezing in the metro until later Friday night, surface low track dependent. The surface low being well southwest of us, with the surface warm front well south and the high slowly shifting east puts us in a good spot to start as snow everywhere with questions on duration. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Do you mean rain including freezing rain or just plain rain and snow line? You're ignoring the strength of the departing surface high. My biggest concern is WAA resulting in a quicker flip to an icy mix but I'm not concerned about temps below freezing in the metro until later Friday night, surface low track dependent. The surface low being well southwest of us, with the surface warm front well south and the high slowly shifting east puts us in a good spot to start as snow everywhere with questions on duration. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I meant rain including freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 22 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: You need to look at the set up, not just what the 10:1 prints 100+ hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: You need to look at the set up, not just what the 10:1 prints 100+ hours out Not making a prediction or a call just sharing a snowmap!!!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, mimillman said: You need to look at the set up, not just what the 10:1 prints 100+ hours out Lol this guy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Do you mean rain including freezing rain or just plain rain and snow line? You're ignoring the strength of the departing surface high. My biggest concern is WAA resulting in a quicker flip to an icy mix but I'm not concerned about temps below freezing in the metro until later Friday night, surface low track dependent. The surface low being well southwest of us, with the surface warm front well south and the high slowly shifting east puts us in a good spot to start as snow everywhere with questions on duration. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk This seems like a better setup than the last storm to get some ice into downtown, even if for a short time. The subfreezing air will already be in place (opposite of last time). Lake temps may be down a couple degrees compared to the day of the last storm though we'll have to see. Also the fetch over water will be a lot shorter than last time, and possibly becoming increasingly short with time as the flow turns more and more southeasterly. Another thing is that if the current timing holds, there would be practically no diurnal assistance in helping to get temps above freezing in northern IL... gonna have to be purely advective. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 24 minutes ago, mimillman said: You need to look at the set up, not just what the 10:1 prints 100+ hours out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Funny guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Funny guy Had to have know it was coming, after that statement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Had to have know it was coming, after that statement. Very fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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