Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Returns are p garbage over most of the metro now I can’t tell if this is all an act or you’re blazin’. Radar looks legit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Anyone know why the HRRR/pivotal weather p-depiction algorithm continuously paints mixed precip with a profile like this? Just a bug, or is there some reason for it that I'm not aware of? For context, this is from an area immediately on the backside of the low tomorrow (of which the HRRR is very aggressive with breaking out precip, much more so than the rest of guidance). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Moderate snow continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Was pretty entertaining watching the snow roll in earlier. Could see the tree line in the south and west horizon start to disappear before flakes had reached our location at work. A few minutes later it was ripping quite nicely. Still all snow here, and it looks like about 3" or so. Should get another hour or so of pure snow before mixing issues arise. So, looks like we should end up close to 4". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: I can’t tell if this is all an act or you’re blazin’. Radar looks legit 25 dbz or bust 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Returns are p garbage over most of the metro nowIm stickin with 1-3Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: A rough estimate from DVN correlation coefficient mixing line would bring that through the Chicago metro in about 4 to 5 hours from west-southwest to east-northeast. Was hoping to hold it off until around midnight here. Might be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Wind is starting to get going. I also hadn’t realized temperatures are colder then usually for a heavy snow event. 15-18F throughout with WC near zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Was pretty entertaining watching the snow roll in earlier. Could see the tree line in the south and west horizon start to disappear before flakes had reached our location at work. A few minutes later it was ripping quite nicely. Still all snow here, and it looks like about 3" or so. Should get another hour or so of pure snow before mixing issues arise. So, looks like we should end up close to 4". Same out here. I measured 4.7" as a composite right as we started to switch to sleet. Appears as if the 3-5" calls were money across much of the area. This could change if the HRRR has it's way tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, hlcater said: Same out here. I measured 4.7" as a composite right as we started to switch to sleet. Appears as if the 3-5" calls were money across much of the area. This could change if the HRRR has it's way tomorrow... If we can lay down a good dusting to half inch of snow tomorrow morning that could make for some wicked blowing snow out in open country. The current snowpack will have a nice smooth top for the new snow to blow off of. Last winter we had a very minor dusting following a crust-over event and it made for a very nasty blowing snow situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, cyclone77 said: If we can lay down a good dusting to half inch of snow tomorrow morning that could make for some wicked blowing snow out in open country. The current snowpack will have a nice smooth top for the new snow to blow off of. Last winter we had a very minor dusting following a crust-over event and it made for a very nasty blowing snow situation. I mentioned exactly that on a different forum. Call me bullish, but I would not be surprised in the slightest to see blizzard warnings whipped out tomorrow if we can squeeze out even an inch on top of the frictionless surface from overnight. It really doesn't take much with winds gusting to 45-50mph to create ground blizzard or even full blizzard conditions if that band ends up being fairly robust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1.1" here thus far. After a period of -SN, back to solid SN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Ice going to be main concern here before cold rain and then arctic blast to freeze the slop in place for the next few days. Could see snow falling late this afternoon but surface level dry air up to about 1500 feet ate it like PacMan dots. Probably not going to get enough saturation for even an inch before the kitchen sink arrives. Kinda prefer it that way. Ive got a thermometer up around 10-12 feet and one at ground level. Currently 29 up high, 26 down low. 850 warm nose already this far north. Just hope some of the HiRes ice forecasts dont come to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 About to get crushed. Starting to get delusions of 6" grandeur. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 About half an inch down, 4 more hrs of 1/2 inch an hour rates should do it for another $$$ call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, hlcater said: I mentioned exactly that on a different forum. Call me bullish, but I would not be surprised in the slightest to see blizzard warnings whipped out tomorrow if we can squeeze out even an inch on top of the frictionless surface from overnight. It really doesn't take much with winds gusting to 45-50mph to create ground blizzard or even full blizzard conditions if that band ends up being fairly robust. Or maybe the new snow squall warning product. Duration may be too long for that though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 It’s just so damn beautiful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, A-L-E-K said: About half an inch down, 4 more hrs of 1/2 inch an hour rates should do it for another $$$ call tth. Your pic from earlier was already 1/2" at least. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/11/2020 at 7:20 PM, Hoosier said: Appears we'll actually have some antecedent cold to dislodge, so I don't think it's wall to wall rain storm locally. Other than that who knows. While we're mentioning old calls 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 This precip is moving pretty rapidly. Been all snow here so far. I'm honestly not sure we will see much of a period of sleet or freezing rain. Pretty substantial dry slot advancing north and east. Snow ripping pretty good here now though. Probably will be in the 2-3in range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: This precip is moving pretty rapidly. Been all snow here so far. I'm honestly not sure we will see much of a period of sleet or freezing rain. Pretty substantial dry slot advancing north and east. Snow ripping pretty good here now though. Probably will be in the 2-3in range Precip supposed to sort of redevelop westward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: tth. Your pic from earlier was already 1/2" at least. Glad tth is going strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Usually I like donut holes but this one does not look tasty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Cedar Rapids/Iowa City/Burlington all reporting freezing rain at the new 6pm ob. Freezing rain/sleet should be into the QC by 7, and here shortly thereafter. Still high-end moderate snow here atm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Heavy freezing rain/sleet right now. Sidewalks are ice already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1.0” here as of 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1.1" ORD as of 6PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Looking toward 311 South Wacker and “Willis Tower.” Traffic nightmare. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Last 6 runs of the HRRR. Amounts on the southern end more problematic with temps more marginal, so maybe the northern half or so of the sig ice zone has a better shot at actual warning criteria? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Usually I like donut holes but this one does not look tasty. Thing sucks, am in it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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