King James Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 This isn't dumping on the NWS, they were in a bad situation with last weeks storm with all the data showing it should have turned out differently. Even reading their AFD and public statements posted there are a lot of mentions of "things are not like last week" and "this is different" (not exact words but close). If it turns out that is a big impact storm that won't help things. The overall weather pattern is just crazy. We're almost approaching 1 year from -25 temps in the Chicago area that it just seems that there is so much variability that models struggle (since they make assumptions in many cases based on past events and what "is likely" to occur). Lots more 10% probability outcomes seem to be occurring (i.e. 3 "500 year floods" in 10 years, etc etc etc)As an observer that relies on this forum to disseminate information to me, it really seems forecasting has gotten a lot more difficult for you all the last 2-3 years. More changes late in the game. Anecdotal for sure but just seems that way. Still super fun to follow along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 15z HRRR is very sig the the local area. Widespread 3-7” of snow, then widespread 0.25-0.60” ice. . But the plumezzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, wegoweather said: quality content Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: 12z RGEM i know models don’t matter at this point but I thought that RGEM would have backed off somewhat by now Actually did back off a bit on the southern edge. I should know since that model was most favorable and so razor thin here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Are there a couple of radars down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, DaveNay said: Are there a couple of radars down? Virga, most likely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Have to say upstream trends (radar and reports) over Iowa look good for here. Also, top down saturation is steadily progressing near DVN radar site. As far as how things go into this evening, if the good rates on the leading edge hold, that bodes well for the snow amounts. As saturation occurs, we'll see temps aloft drop from evaporative cooling then rates would temporarily hold back the WAA. We'll have to closely watch the mixing line progression on correlation coefficient this evening. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 If we're going to see changes to the forecast for LOT, the most likely thing would seem to be higher ice amounts farther north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 If we're going to see changes to the forecast for LOT, the most likely thing would seem to be higher ice amounts farther north.Agree there. Maybe a slight bump in snow amounts but then it looks likely the entire CWA will changeover to sleet then freezing rain. The ice accums shown on COD and pivotal wx are probably still overdone but we could get some decent amounts approaching if not a bit over 1/4" in spots.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looking at upstream obs, Kansas City has been stuck at 32 with zr for 2+ hours. Will be watching for some clues on how long it takes to get above freezing... and they have a diurnal advantage right now unlike farther east later. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looking good locally still, no changes to the going forecast which I like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Lock it in. Now the big question: Will I wake up in time to enjoy it before the rain and warmer temps start to melt the snow? My guess is...probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I am definitely revising my Milwaukee and Racine calls you to 3-5” and my Minneapolis call to 6-8”. The others look fine, and I still think Chicago will see more intense snow than here (but also more mixing keeping them in the 3-5 range) but too much evidence against keeping the area under 3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 HRRR has been among the more bullish models around the I-80 corridor of IL/IN... hope it's right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 RGEM and Euro remain bullish with 5-7" locally. Still not within HRRR range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 It's looking good for 3-5" in Cedar Rapids. The snow has quickly intensified here in the last twenty minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, wegoweather said: Fwiw, Chi shore and the crib have dipped to 35 and 31 respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 imo, you could make an argument for a warning in the LOT cwa. Even though the snow and/or ice amount could fall just short, there should be an overlap corridor that gets close on both counts. Plus some wind to add to impacts. I get why they held off though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Still 32 in KC. SGF is 32 with zr and southeast winds gusting to 44 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Still 32 in KC. SGF is 32 with zr and southeast winds gusting to 44 mph. I remember sitting in my dorm room at KU (probably 2/14/90) watching transformers pop due to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DaveNay said: I remember sitting in my dorm room at KU (probably 2/14/90) watching transformers pop due to ice. there's that storm again........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Baum said: there's that storm again........... I'm sure the only reason I remember it right now is because it has been discussed here recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Have to wonder if laying down this area of snow may slow the temp rise a bit too. It will literally be happening immediately prior to changing over so not "old" snow. Then again we will have pretty decent waa so maybe it won't really have an impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Hrrr is laying down over a half inch of ice near the I-80 corridor in N IL. Probably way overdone but I feel like even a fraction of that would cause some issues lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Donut hole is closing nicely on KLOT. Already good returns aloft not far away on 1.5° scan suggests it won't be long til we see snow reports in the CWA. Latest saturation trends seem to indicate it's a bit ahead of schedule.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 HRRR is a pretty significant winter storm for LOT, 4-6" snow followed by .2"+ of ice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I picked up 0.6" in the first hour. Solid heavier returns have moved over Cedar Rapids, so I expect the rate will increase to 1"/hr. The visibility has dropped just in the last five minutes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Have to wonder if laying down this area of snow may slow the temp rise a bit too. It will literally be happening immediately prior to changing over so not "old" snow. Then again we will have pretty decent waa so maybe it won't really have an impact.I think the southeast surface winds plus snow cover will provide resistance from temps rising much until the surface low finally gets closer and winds shift to south then southwest. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Have to wonder if laying down this area of snow may slow the temp rise a bit too. It will literally be happening immediately prior to changing over so not "old" snow. Then again we will have pretty decent waa so maybe it won't really have an impact. 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I think the southeast surface winds plus snow cover will provide resistance from temps rising much until the surface low finally gets closer and winds shift to south then southwest. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk You guys are the experts and probably right, but anecdotally at least and as hoosier mentioned earlier, warm air advection usually rules the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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