jlauderdal Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: plumes dropped at ORD, 2.5 looking spot on now yep, travelers advisory criteria 1-3, models been in reduction mode, trend is your friend anyone think any of these locations see over 4 inches of accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: yep, travelers advisory criteria 1-3, models been in reduction mode, trend is your friend anyone think any of these locations see over 4 inches of accumulation? If we do not see 4" or more of accumulation in the Detroit area, I will be surprisedm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 yep, travelers advisory criteria 1-3, models been in reduction mode, trend is your friend anyone think any of these locations see over 4 inches of accumulation? Guidance is not backing downward.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: yep, travelers advisory criteria 1-3, models been in reduction mode, trend is your friend anyone think any of these locations see over 4 inches of accumulation? Honestly curious, what models are in reduction mode? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Honestly curious, what models are in reduction mode? Its as if its become a staple to just say the models back down at the last minute whether they do or dont. Our 9" snowstorm on Nov 11 was forecast at 3-5 the day before. If this one does well, it too will have gotten better the closer we got, not worse. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Powerball said: Impressive to see that you guys are going to get another warning criteria snowfall in the "warm sector" of a system, given it also happened not too long ago and how unusual it is. Honestly, this is the most powerball-eque Detroit winter I've ever seen. Barring some last minute failure, this will be our 2nd warning criteria snowstorm, each has trended better with time. In between, there has been very little what you would call nuisance snowfalls, and the snows that have fallen have not caused many travel disruption and have usually been in the form of brief but heavy squalls. Lots of flurries but those don't really have any effect other than being mood flakes. Its been a frustrating winter for me but its one you would write up and request every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Its as if its become a staple to just say the models back down at the last minute whether they do or dont. Our 9" snowstorm on Nov 11 was forecast at 3-5 the day before. If this one does well, it too will have gotten better the closer we got, not worse. Just judging by the posts in here I fully expected models to show a pathetic outcome for LOT atleast before I checked but it seems about the same/slightly better even than last night on most hi res guidance atleast. I know it’s certainly been the trend lately but 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Its as if its become a staple to just say the models back down at the last minute whether they do or dont. Our 9" snowstorm on Nov 11 was forecast at 3-5 the day before. If this one does well, it too will have gotten better the closer we got, not worse. It's a coping mechanism. If I convince myself guidance says its going to suck, I am less disappointed when it actually shits the bed. I think its the "denial" stage of grief. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Just judging by the posts in here I fully expected models to show a pathetic outcome for LOT atleast before I checked but it seems about the same/slightly better even than last night on most hi res guidance atleast. I know it’s certainly been the trend lately but Hedging on their emotional buy in. If it underperforms- told you so. If it meets forecast or overperforms here come the photos and gleeful posts that models finally got something right this god forsaken winter.lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Well MKX has me at 5-6" for this event which seems reasonable. Nice thing is that since we really didn't get melting in the last week, there should be enough for the snowmobile trails to start running which is always good. Will be my biggest snowfall of the actual winter if predictions are accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Its as if its become a staple to just say the models back down at the last minute whether they do or dont. Our 9" snowstorm on Nov 11 was forecast at 3-5 the day before. If this one does well, it too will have gotten better the closer we got, not worse. Detroit/southern burbs are famous for cleaning up the shit left behind here at closing time of tracking. Stebo had this a trash storm. When its wagons west we all know its shit and there are rarely late surprises. This is a funky one back this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12z RGEM i know models don’t matter at this point but I thought that RGEM would have backed off somewhat by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, ILSNOW said: 12z RGEM i know models don’t matter at this point but I thought that RGEM would have backed off somewhat by now Its in line for MBY with other guidance, a general 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, ILSNOW said: 12z RGEM i know models don’t matter at this point but I thought that RGEM would have backed off somewhat by now Ride the HRRR for IL snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 the real question, will i see flakes before it gets dark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 wisconsinwx 8:17 first pixie. tough call if flakes fly before the bank closes in chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: the real question, will i see flakes before it gets dark Even the HRRR is moving up and down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: the real question, will i see flakes before it gets dark The real question, will there be any snow remaining in the AM after the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Ride the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 It’s time.... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 wisconsinwx's 1st call looking cash$. He'll never forget again to undercut se wind event snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It’s time... . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: the real question, will i see flakes before it gets dark Fortunately if IL legislators have their way it wont be as much of a problem next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 15z HRRR is very sig the the local area.Widespread 3-7” of snow, then widespread 0.25-0.60” ice.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 15z HRRR is very sig the the local area. Widespread 3-7” of snow, then widespread 0.25-0.60” ice. . rainer 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 15z HRRR is very sig the the local area. Widespread 3-7” of snow, then widespread 0.25-0.60” ice. . Now we wait for that last minute WSW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 15z HRRR is very sig the the local area. Widespread 3-7” of snow, then widespread 0.25-0.60” ice. . 2/14/90 redux incoming.....headed to the store for milk, eggs, beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 15z HRRR is very sig the the local area. Widespread 3-7” of snow, then widespread 0.25-0.60” ice. . This isn't dumping on the NWS, they were in a bad situation with last weeks storm with all the data showing it should have turned out differently. Even reading their AFD and public statements posted there are a lot of mentions of "things are not like last week" and "this is different" (not exact words but close). If it turns out that is a big impact storm that won't help things. The overall weather pattern is just crazy. We're almost approaching 1 year from -25 temps in the Chicago area that it just seems that there is so much variability that models struggle (since they make assumptions in many cases based on past events and what "is likely" to occur). Lots more 10% probability outcomes seem to be occurring (i.e. 3 "500 year floods" in 10 years, etc etc etc) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 nice banding near DSM where it appears to be solid rippage https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/iowa/court-ave-des-moines.html screwhole near STL has mby in its sights 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2/14/90 redux incoming.....headed to the store for milk, eggs, beer.Don’t forget the party favor that doesn’t need to be cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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