Baum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: we're riding the canadian now i'm in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: A little off-topic, but while the ORD/Southern MI crew sorts out the thermodynamics for "Winter Storm Jacob" (lol), it's almost a lock that from Friday afternoon through daybreak on Saturday an area through STL, HUF, IND, FWA, and TOL will see the proverbial kitchen sink of precipitation before turning to all rain. However, on the map shown below from TT, their algorithm shows an unbelievable amount of snow in the highlighted area. I realize that it includes sleet and it is caused by taint. I wish Tropical Tidbits would change this. My problem is the social media cowboys who will post this map as a forecast for pure sensationalism. Then it's up to someone in my position to talk to the public and government officials off of the ledge. On a side note, it looks like for the FWA area, it will start as snow shortly after dark (when else?), and we may be able get a quick inch or two before the kitchen sink sets in until daylight. I love TT to death, one of my favorite model sites, but this has been driving me nuts lately. With the tendency of social media posters to emphasize runs like this that advertise the biggest numbers possible, there really needs to be some work done on minimizing the taint that results in these jacked up numbers. The reality is, **includes sleet** really does nothing especially when the pinks and greens are on the map. I do not envy your position of having to calm the herds who get spooked, especially on events like this that will be wayyyyy more of a mixed precip event, including periods of FZRA that tend to have far quicker/sudden impacts. Definitely would be worth reaching out to Levi to inquire more about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Alek has seemed to gain a flock of followers on here. Amazing the number of peeps join his camp lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Looking like a solid 4-7" for metro Detroit. if you pull off 6" from a storm tracking to your nw in this garbage pattern.... ....that'll confirm my suspicion all along that you've been in possession of a sex tape of old man winter 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Alek has seemed to gain a flock of followers on here. Amazing the number of peeps join his camp lol It's the charisma and unwavering positive attitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: WTOD fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 2,303,494 times, shame on me. Pretty much, lol There is some nice evaporational cooling early on before the waa surge kicks in, really evident looking at this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Alek has seemed to gain a flock of followers on here. Amazing the number of peeps join his camp lol I'm sure those "followers" would be more than happy to disagree with him, but Alek the Contrarian has made a realistic call on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The HRDPS (higher resolution) shows 3-4" in Chicago with snow still falling at 48 hrs. https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020011612&fh=48 This is shaping up to be another 1-3 event for chgo metro, sadly i was in town for last weeks disappointment Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Btw, as crazy as it seems, this storm will likely put ORD back into positive territory compared to average snowfall to date at least temporarily. What a way to run a season by getting fat off the early surplus. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Btw, as crazy as it seems, this storm will likely put ORD back into positive territory compared to average snowfall to date at least temporarily. What a way to run a season by getting fat off the early surplus. lol for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Been taking a closer look at 12z guidance and the sneaky warm layer on the NAMs comes in at 800 to 775 mb tomorrow evening from southwest to northeast, with 850 mb warmth lagging a bit. The other 12z models with exception of WRF-NMM are not picking up on the 800-775 mb warm layer, but it does seem to have some support from 00z Euro via pivotal wx soundings. We'll see what the 12z Euro shows shortly. I'm not doing the grids today for LOT but am discussing the forecast with winter wx desk and most likely route is we blend the NAM and GFS positive and negative wet bulb energies, which will bring sleet and freezing rain farther north. Could certainly make a case for fully jumping in with NAM thermal profiles but guessing neighboring offices would prefer a blended approach for now. Another interesting thing I'm noticing is the convective look to the precip on simulated reflectivity products later tomorrow evening and overnight. Lapse rates in the 500-400 mb layer increase to over 7C/km and sure enough, 3km NAM is showing small amounts of CAPE, highest far south. Convection could cause ptypes to oscillate where warm layer isn't too pronounced, which would be favored north of 80. Expect winter wx headlines for the entire CWA this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 ^ thanks. And a well thought out polite way to say 2.5" before a sleet fest. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Euro is basically a compromise between the colder models and the NAM. The pivotal wx soundings suggest that it has the elevated warm layer like on the NAM but not quite as aggressive. Lots of QPF as snow I-88 and north before ptype change. I have no idea how WxBell calculates ice accums but they're impressive. My guess is with northward extent there should be more sleet. The other concerning trend today is slower to warm temps south to north tomorrow night, prolonging frozen p-type. At 06z tomorrow night, the surface wet bulb zero line is still completely south of the LOT CWA on all the operational models. Precip rates where ZR occurs longest in our south could be rather high for efficient accretion but I think realistic shot at ice storm criteria (0.25"+) somewhere I-80 and south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Euro is basically a compromise between the colder models and the NAM. The pivotal wx soundings suggest that it has the elevated warm layer like on the NAM but not quite as aggressive. Lots of QPF as snow north of I-80 and especially I-88 and north before ptype change. I have no idea how WxBell calculates ice accums but they're impressive. My guess is with northward extent there should be more sleet. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk A lot of the ice is progged with temps around 30-32 though, so not the most ideal situation for building up with moderate to possibly even briefly heavy rates. I do still wonder if the 32F line might get north faster than modeled, given the flow taking on an increasing southerly component with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Euro is basically a compromise between the colder models and the NAM. The pivotal wx soundings suggest that it has the elevated warm layer like on the NAM but not quite as aggressive. Lots of QPF as snow north of I-80 and especially I-88 and north before ptype change. I have no idea how WxBell calculates ice accums but they're impressive. My guess is with northward extent there should be more sleet. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Sleet... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Yeah, a sneaky (or not too sneaky) warm layer would portend sleet? I know the question is how much snow before changeover but at 775, even the smallest warm layer could screw up the whole calculation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Fully expecting 1.5" of snow/sleet followed by drizzle > into the freezer for the weekend. Tips of grass blades won't get covered. This forum will be a giddy place when we finally get a solid snow threat with no risk of mixing/garbage.Grass/leaves being totally covered is the hurdle I’m still looking to clear this winter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Sleet... zr map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: A little off-topic, but while the ORD/Southern MI crew sorts out the thermodynamics for "Winter Storm Jacob" (lol), it's almost a lock that from Friday afternoon through daybreak on Saturday an area through STL, HUF, IND, FWA, and TOL will see the proverbial kitchen sink of precipitation before turning to all rain. However, on the map shown below from TT, their algorithm shows an unbelievable amount of snow in the highlighted area. I realize that it includes sleet and it is caused by taint. I wish Tropical Tidbits would change this. My problem is the social media cowboys who will post this map as a forecast for pure sensationalism. Then it's up to someone in my position to talk to the public and government officials off of the ledge. On a side note, it looks like for the FWA area, it will start as snow shortly after dark (when else?), and we may be able get a quick inch or two before the kitchen sink sets in until daylight. Here is your winter weather alert: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: zr map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 solid ZR #s there, not gonna be a big deal IMBY but in general i'm always more bullish on ZR when it's coming on the heels of actual cold with cold/dry surfaces, could see some decent totals in the fox river valley favored zone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 That concoction in mid January will still be with us by Spring break. Lovely. 3" of snow. A dash of sleet, and a glaze of Ice. A touch of drizzle, than a mini thaw. Flash freeze and some snowshowers with 30 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 To RC's point about the wetbulbs, look at this. Take Kankakee for example. Even at 6z Sat after it has been precipitating for a while, the temp/dew are 31/25. Seems a little questionable imo to have that much of a gap in temps/dews after precipitating for that long, but if it is right, then it provides a source for some cooling to slow down the rate of temperature rise a bit (this is outweighed by waa at this point so the net effect is that temperatures still rise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Have mentioned some factors which could hurt zr accretion rate, but one positive is that the warm layer is not progged to be super warm during the freezing rain window. All else being equal, it is harder to accrete when the drops are dealing with a layer of 50F aloft compared to say 38F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 DTX issued a Winter Storm Watch for its entire CWA. Heavy snow with accums of 4-7”. Certainly will take it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 18z HRRR... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Long range HRRR would be acceptable enough. Does seem to have too much diurnal warming tomorrow given widespread clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z HRRR... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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