UMB WX Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Another excellent AFD from the LOT crew. SE winds have scared me for life sitting near the lake- shrugs. Yesterday we got the bleeding to stop as expected and now another day of stable or better modeling would be good for the psyche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 plumes decreased a bit at ORD but two distinct camps now with a decent cluster of respectable 4-5" hits above the mean which is weighed down by a bunch of clunkers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 SREF slowly ticking up here. BIV is over 8" and GRR is approaching 8". I am sure there is a little LES in there but I'll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 And there's the NAM run that does what we feared with a faster changeover to sleet then freezing rain. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 between the dry SE flow and unfavorable low track, lots working against respectable snow at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: between the dry SE flow and unfavorable low track, lots working against respectable snow at this point Plus never underestimate WAA. Figuring on some mood flakes when I leave work tomorrow, then cold and brown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 assuming the flakes will start just after sunset per winter 2020 guidelines 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Well it seems like this one can go either way for the LOT crew. Hopefully the thermodynamics work in our favor. It's certainty cold as hell out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 FWIW, the RGEM keeps it all snow near/north of I-88. Still snowing at the end of the 06z run too. Again it’s the RGEM but atleast a snowier solution is somewhere in the realm of possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 ^ keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Hilarity ensues as we get closer to the event, the plumes that we’re once all tight-knit around 5” are now all over the place (from less than an inch to 12”). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: FWIW, the RGEM keeps it all snow near/north of I-88. Still snowing at the end of the 06z run too. Again it’s the RGEM but atleast a snowier solution is somewhere in the realm of possibility. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: You got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Northern extent of the 850 temps have trended south, over the past 24 hours, on the GFS. NAM 850s have started trending north. Feels like the WI/IL border will be a good compromise for northern extent of the 850s. 950 temps are slightly warmer. What that means for precip types, who knows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 12Z CMC looks like it came in a tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 based on forum feedback I'm guessing 12Z runs were status quo................................................ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Baum said: based on forum feedback I'm guessing 12Z runs were status quo................................................ we're riding the canadian now 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 As usual, very mixed feedback, it’s the GFS/ARW (which fit the 1-3”, heavier in each direction) vs other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 Based on latest trends, I would seem to think 4-6" is a good call for the GTA. If a solution like the GFS pans out with warmer sfc temps then I'd lean closer to 4". However, a majority of the other models keep us below freezing and if that were to pan out, I wouldn't be surprised to see some localized amounts near 7-8". Still riding 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: we're riding the canadian now Until the euro comes out and if we don’t like it we will toss it out as trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Looking like a solid 4-7" for metro Detroit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Fully expecting 1.5" of snow/sleet followed by drizzle > into the freezer for the weekend. Tips of grass blades won't get covered. This forum will be a giddy place when we finally get a solid snow threat with no risk of mixing/garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: we're riding the canadian now The HRDPS (higher resolution) shows 3-4" in Chicago with snow still falling at 48 hrs. https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020011612&fh=48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: we're riding the canadian now Your 2.5 could very well be a bust on the high side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 A little off-topic, but while the ORD/Southern MI crew sorts out the thermodynamics for "Winter Storm Jacob" (lol), it's almost a lock that from Friday afternoon through daybreak on Saturday an area through STL, HUF, IND, FWA, and TOL will see the proverbial kitchen sink of precipitation before turning to all rain. However, on the map shown below from TT, their algorithm shows an unbelievable amount of snow in the highlighted area. I realize that it includes sleet and it is caused by taint. I wish Tropical Tidbits would change this. My problem is the social media cowboys who will post this map as a forecast for pure sensationalism. Then it's up to someone in my position to talk to the public and government officials off of the ledge. On a side note, it looks like for the FWA area, it will start as snow shortly after dark (when else?), and we may be able get a quick inch or two before the kitchen sink sets in until daylight. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, IWXwx said: A little off-topic, but while the ORD/Southern MI crew sorts out the thermodynamics for "Winter Storm Jacob" (lol), it's almost a lock that from Friday afternoon through daybreak on Saturday an area through STL, HUF, IND, FWA, and TOL will see the proverbial kitchen sink of precipitation before turning to all rain. However, on the map shown below from TT, their algorithm shows an unbelievable amount of snow in the highlighted area. I realize that it includes sleet and it is caused by taint. I wish Tropical Tidbits would change this. My problem is the social media cowboys who will post this map as a forecast for pure sensationalism. Then it's up to someone in my position to talk to the public and government officials off of the ledge. On a side note, it looks like for the FWA area, it will start as snow shortly after dark (when else?), and we may be able get a quick inch or two before the kitchen sink sets in until daylight. Agreed, someone should reach out to Levi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Still holding out for about 2-3" on the front end. Will need to get into some good rates for it to happen. I just can't buy into the coldest models in a setup like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Still holding out for about 2-3" on the front end. Will need to get into some good rates for it to happen. I just can't buy into the coldest models in a setup like this. WTOD fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 2,303,494 times, shame on me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 (ride the Canadian) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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