RogueWaves Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 16.0z NAM keeps flakes flying for SWMI off the lake for quite a while after passage of the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 00z NAM would indicate a wall of WAA precip during the late afternoon and evening and then dry slot with lighter rates 06z and beyond. Because of the support for heavy rates due to very strong isentropic ascent, dynamic cooling could in that case keep a bulk of the QPF as snow for much of the Chicago metro. The transition over to sleet and freezing rain would happen when precip rates lighten as the mid-level dry slot moves overhead. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk There's the case for not flipping over to a mix too early. But man, how many times have we sat here and watched the waa overperform. Past experience says to be cautious but hopefully enough precip gets down before the thermal profiles become more hostile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 0Z GFS is probs as good as we're gonna get, widespread 6+ inches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 0z CMC going a little crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 LOT clearly in disagreement with DVN on hoisting the watch and I think it’s wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The GFS looks as good as it does in northern IL because of what happens between 54-57 hours. Right as 850 mb temps are about to go above freezing, the northward progress stops with even some minor cooling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Even though warning criteria may not be met the combination of advisory-level snow and advisory-level ice may warrant a Winter Storm Watch in many locations with decisions on how to upgrade made later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Liking the chances for a good 3-5" of snow with nice rates for here/QC area. The thermal ridge with the mixed precip types may compact/melt some of what falls, but vigorous CAA kicks in Sat morning and will stop that. Looks like some 50mph wind gust potential on Sat in the midst of that strong CAA. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Even though warning criteria may not be met the combination of advisory-level snow and advisory-level ice may warrant a Winter Storm Watch in many locations with decisions on how to upgrade made later. I'm guessing IWX, GRR and DTX will def host one. LOT is more questionable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I guess last weekend's storm's Euro is this weekend's storm's GEM: looking consistently promising for several runs before pulling the rug out on the excitement. If it happens, the big question is when is the rug pulled? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I'm guessing IWX, GRR and DTX will def host one. LOT is more questionable They more than likely won't until tomorrow afternoon with the warning coming friday afternoon. IWX maybe their northern tier but not much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: I guess last weekend's storm's Euro is this weekend's storm's GEM: looking consistently promising for several runs before pulling the rug out on the excitement. If it happens, the big question is when is the rug pulled? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On the positive side, instead of mixing and rain, the Euro looks to dry slot areas north of the Cheddar Curtain after the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Don't have the ice map but that seemed like a pretty icy Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Don't have the ice map but that seemed like a pretty icy Euro run. Ice map cometh (along with snow) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Models keep trending colder for Saturday night, gonna freeze everything over that melts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Well, another lame write-up from GRR. They used to be so detailed but now the majority of the time the write-ups are very short... Not much change to the model guidance on the evolution of the storm over the weekend. We are thinking a general 3 to 5 inch event with most of that falling Friday night in a pattern of strong warm advection/isentropic ascent followed by a period on Saturday of rain or mixed precipitation as the sfc low tracks across the forecast area. We could be dry slotted part of Saturday with snow on the backside transitioning to lake effect snow showers Saturday evening. Strong cold advection and pressure gradient could result in blowing snow as temperatures plummet. Thats the whole write-up on the storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 38 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: Well, another lame write-up from GRR. They used to be so detailed but now the majority of the time the write-ups are very short... Not much change to the model guidance on the evolution of the storm over the weekend. We are thinking a general 3 to 5 inch event with most of that falling Friday night in a pattern of strong warm advection/isentropic ascent followed by a period on Saturday of rain or mixed precipitation as the sfc low tracks across the forecast area. We could be dry slotted part of Saturday with snow on the backside transitioning to lake effect snow showers Saturday evening. Strong cold advection and pressure gradient could result in blowing snow as temperatures plummet. Thats the whole write-up on the storm... I thought the same. My bet is they change their tone a bit with a different forecaster by the mid-morning/afternoon forecast package. 3-5” seems like a lock, but they should definitely stress 6” or more locally is possible IMO, especially since this will be the biggest snowfall since November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 There's the case for not flipping over to a mix too early. But man, how many times have we sat here and watched the waa overperform. Past experience says to be cautious but hopefully enough precip gets down before the thermal profiles become more hostile. We definitely have to hope for earlier saturation to get some bonus snow, should the feared overperforming WAA occur. It's really a razor thin margin. Regardless of every other NAM run struggling with lower level dry air, I'm buying that we'll get into good precip rates, likely snow for at least a couple hours near/just north of 80 and then longer 88 and north. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Most hi res guidance has that same day air banded look as the NAM, probably safe to assume that happens to some extent over the cwa Totals are gonna be kept in check by duration and eventual flip to rain / dry slot as it is, so that well modeled screw zone is gonna leave someone with a particularly lame total. Call looking $, couple shifts south on the euro would be yikes.gif tho. Still time for seasonal trends to flex and send this as an open wave through the lower oh valley. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Idk man. TWC really going no holds barred with that 5"-8" for Friday night forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Still time for seasonal trends to flex and send this as an open wave through the lower oh valley.Definitely not enough time for that to occur.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I think it gets even better for the DTW area with cold air sticking around longer and us getting more snow to ease the pain of last weekends rain mess! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Let's go for a 2/14/90 redux. One of the great WAA snow events I can recall. Note; forecasts leading up to it were similar to now.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Definitely not enough time for that to occur. . stebo like sarcasm detection abilities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baum said: Let's go for a 2/14/90 redux. One of the great WAA snow events I can recall. Note; forecasts leading up to it were similar to now.... I was 6, assuming I got buried tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Baum said: Let's go for a 2/14/90 redux. One of the great WAA snow events I can recall. Note; forecasts leading up to it were similar to now.... The low tracked over Carbondale in that event... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Let's go for a 2/14/90 redux. One of the great WAA snow events I can recall. Note; forecasts leading up to it were similar to now....How about 2/17/14? Relatively similar setup with air mass not that cold aloft (weather.us reanalysis showed +2C at 850 mb into southern CWA before precip started), broad low pressure west, departing surface high to the east, and southeast surface winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, mimillman said: The low tracked over Carbondale in that event... Perhaps irrelevant. Warm air surge of moisture pushing over a cold dome. Forecast was for a 2-4" with a change to sleet and ice. Began as Heavy snow and lasted from say 2-10 pm. Put 8 " down in that time period. Bigger difference was, if my recollection is correct, cold air had been much more entrenched. And in no way am I saying this is that....just a reminder that sometimes these do overperform...that was an instance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 stebo like sarcasm detection abilitiesKnowing you and also with how the season has gone, you never know. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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