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January 17-18 Winter Storm


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Anyone know why the HRRR/pivotal weather p-depiction algorithm continuously paints mixed precip with a profile like this? Just a bug, or is there some reason for it that I'm not aware of? 

For context, this is from an area immediately on the backside of the low tomorrow (of which the HRRR is very aggressive with breaking out precip, much more so than the rest of guidance).

hrrr_2020011722_013_41.96--92.04.png

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Was pretty entertaining watching the snow roll in earlier.  Could see the tree line in the south and west horizon start to disappear before flakes had reached our location at work.  A few minutes later it was ripping quite nicely.  

Still all snow here, and it looks like about 3" or so.  Should get another hour or so of pure snow before mixing issues arise.  So, looks like we should end up close to 4".

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9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

A rough estimate from DVN correlation coefficient mixing line would bring that through the Chicago metro in about 4 to 5 hours from west-southwest to east-northeast.

 

 

 

 

Was hoping to hold it off until around midnight here.  Might be tough.

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Was pretty entertaining watching the snow roll in earlier.  Could see the tree line in the south and west horizon start to disappear before flakes had reached our location at work.  A few minutes later it was ripping quite nicely.  

Still all snow here, and it looks like about 3" or so.  Should get another hour or so of pure snow before mixing issues arise.  So, looks like we should end up close to 4".

Same out here. I measured 4.7" as a composite right as we started to switch to sleet. Appears as if the 3-5" calls were money across much of the area. This could change if the HRRR has it's way tomorrow...

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4 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Same out here. I measured 4.7" as a composite right as we started to switch to sleet. Appears as if the 3-5" calls were money across much of the area. This could change if the HRRR has it's way tomorrow...

If we can lay down a good dusting to half inch of snow tomorrow morning that could make for some wicked blowing snow out in open country.  The current snowpack will have a nice smooth top for the new snow to blow off of.  Last winter we had a very minor dusting following a crust-over event and it made for a very nasty blowing snow situation.  

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

If we can lay down a good dusting to half inch of snow tomorrow morning that could make for some wicked blowing snow out in open country.  The current snowpack will have a nice smooth top for the new snow to blow off of.  Last winter we had a very minor dusting following a crust-over event and it made for a very nasty blowing snow situation.  

I mentioned exactly that on a different forum. Call me bullish, but I would not be surprised in the slightest to see blizzard warnings whipped out tomorrow if we can squeeze out even an inch on top of the frictionless surface from overnight. It really doesn't take much with winds gusting to 45-50mph to create ground blizzard or even full blizzard conditions if that band ends up being fairly robust.

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Ice going to be main concern here before cold rain and then arctic blast to freeze the slop in place for the next few days.  Could see snow falling late this afternoon but surface level dry air up to about 1500 feet ate it like PacMan dots.  Probably not going to get enough saturation for even an inch before the kitchen sink arrives.  Kinda prefer it that way.  Ive got a thermometer up around 10-12 feet and one at ground level.  Currently 29 up high, 26 down low.  850 warm nose already this far north.  Just hope some of the HiRes ice forecasts dont come to fruition.  

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4 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I mentioned exactly that on a different forum. Call me bullish, but I would not be surprised in the slightest to see blizzard warnings whipped out tomorrow if we can squeeze out even an inch on top of the frictionless surface from overnight. It really doesn't take much with winds gusting to 45-50mph to create ground blizzard or even full blizzard conditions if that band ends up being fairly robust.

Or maybe the new snow squall warning product.  Duration may be too long for that though?

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

This precip is moving pretty rapidly. Been all snow here so far. I'm honestly not sure we will see much of a period of sleet or freezing rain. Pretty substantial dry slot advancing north and east. Snow ripping pretty good here now though. Probably will be in the 2-3in range

Precip supposed to sort of redevelop westward.

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