Winter Man Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Any way to see ice accumulations from RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said: Garbage Better drive to Starved Rock State Park to get in on the action 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 DAB-10”. Final call 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I think 5-8" is a good call for Metro Detroit wouldn't be surprised if we get an isolated higher amount especially if the convective element is realized. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 Both Euro and CMC showing 8" at YYZ. I'm still sticking with my 4-6" call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 If the Canuk verifies I swear I'm laying all my Loonies on it the rest of the year. It's done the best in my area 120 hrs out this winter all the way back to Halloween. Like most, the other models have waffled around here and it has too at times. But seriously, the Canuk has been pretty on within 5 days, and especially within 3 days for us in the south this year. Maybe moving forward the spirit of Neil is gonna make it even better with a Natural Science algorithm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 GRR saying “hold your horses.” .DISCUSSION...(Today through Next Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 -- Wet and heavier snow to fall Friday night into Saturday for most of the area -- The area remains on track to see a impactful snowfall tonight and Saturday morning. With this in mind, we will be holding on to the Winter Weather Advisory as is for this forecast package. After a quiet day in which we just see clouds thicken up, and winds increase a bit, a fairly robust of snow is expected to move in after dark, and persist into Saturday. This snow will be the result of a very strong push of moisture coming in via a 70 knot low level jet nosing up into the area. The peak snowfall rates should come after 06z tonight and last until around, or just after 12z Saturday. We are looking at potential inch/hour snow rates of a more wet and heavy snow with lower snow-liquid ratios. This snow will obviously cause issues with the roads, and could cause some power outages as the snow could weigh down power lines and snap tree limbs. The snow should then let up in intensity on Saturday, and will likely even change to a wintry mix, and then rain/drizzle for areas along and south of I-96. This happens for a couple of reasons. The first reason is the surface low will come up into the area, and bring a brief shot of warmer air. This will come in aloft first, and could bring a brief bout of some freezing rain. This should not be a problem for roads falling on top of snow. Also, the deeper moisture will peel away, and could end up as some drizzle as the dgz becomes unsaturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Next Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 -- Wet and heavier snow to fall Friday night into Saturday for most of the area -- The area remains on track to see a impactful snowfall tonight and Saturday morning. With this in mind, we will be holding on to the Winter Weather Advisory as is for this forecast package. After a quiet day in which we just see clouds thicken up, and winds increase a bit, a fairly robust of snow is expected to move in after dark, and persist into Saturday. This snow will be the result of a very strong push of moisture coming in via a 70 knot low level jet nosing up into the area. The peak snowfall rates should come after 06z tonight and last until around, or just after 12z Saturday. We are looking at potential inch/hour snow rates of a more wet and heavy snow with lower snow-liquid ratios. This snow will obviously cause issues with the roads, and could cause some power outages as the snow could weigh down power lines and snap tree limbs. The snow should then let up in intensity on Saturday, and will likely even change to a wintry mix, and then rain/drizzle for areas along and south of I-96. This happens for a couple of reasons. The first reason is the surface low will come up into the area, and bring a brief shot of warmer air. This will come in aloft first, and could bring a brief bout of some freezing rain. This should not be a problem for roads falling on top of snow. Also, the deeper moisture will peel away, and could end up as some drizzle as the dgz becomes unsaturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 oddly enough LOT pushed me to 3-5"...though model trends overnight clearly depict about 2-3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Radar does not look impressive, with a showery and spotty look. Overnight guidance also trended down with snow, showing only 2-3 hrs of quality returns before changeover. Feeling much more optimistic about my day 5 call again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1-3 event for metro chicago, models heading in the wrong direction for anything more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-172200- /O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.200118T0500Z-200118T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.200118T0300Z-200118T1700Z/ Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Peak snowfall rates up to an inch per hour likely early Saturday morning. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches by Saturday afternoon. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibilities will be decreased in areas of heavy snow. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will begin Friday night and become heaviest during the 1 AM to 7 AM timeframe on Saturday. Temperates will then rise to near freezing or perhaps a degree or two above. This will coincide with a changeover to sleet before warmer air transitions precipitation to rain or drizzle by mid afternoon, or earlier for Lenawee and Monroe counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, jlauderdal said: 1-3 event for metro chicago, models heading in the wrong direction for anything more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Wouldn’t be a storm this year without crappy radar presentation and models backtracking within 8 hours of onset. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 plumes dropped at ORD, 2.5 looking spot on now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Nice long duration event with 12-14" (or more) likely before things wind down on Sunday. Cold this morning, -6. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Guidance looks good, 2-5” hit area wide looking likely.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 HRRR looking good. Looks like a wall of snow hits the QCA around 1pm. Looks like a solid 4" type storm, but if we can stay in the snow long enough more than that is possible. Gonna come down to how long we can keep heavier precip around, as once the lighter stuff moves in that will be the end of the snow. Tomorrow's winds are going to be legit. Several hours of 50mph wind gust potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Nice long duration event with 12-14" (or more) likely before things wind down on Sunday. Cold this morning, -6. You do well synoptically with mild winters. Looks good for you the rest of the month into early Feb. Getting ready to use the umbrella again here save this system for the rest of January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cary67 said: You do well synoptically with mild winters. Looks good for you the rest of the month into early Feb. Getting ready to use the umbrella again here save this system for the rest of January your good for 5". MBY...not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Temps running colder then forecast. Only 5F here. Dry air and model trends have me thinking 6” is likely event total here. HRRR wants to bring the mix up here. Not sure that will pan out but we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 HRRR says i make a run at mid 40s with boomer tomorrow, plumes also down again with mean under 3" now at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 hours ago, Jackstraw said: If the Canuk verifies I swear I'm laying all my Loonies on it the rest of the year. It's done the best in my area 120 hrs out this winter all the way back to Halloween. Like most, the other models have waffled around here and it has too at times. But seriously, the Canuk has been pretty on within 5 days, and especially within 3 days for us in the south this year. Maybe moving forward the spirit of Neil is gonna make it even better with a Natural Science algorithm A fellow Hoosier Rush fan, I like it! My company is named after a Rush song.... way too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Guidance looks great for Southeast Michigan. Now we wait. Impressive to see that you guys are going to get another warning criteria snowfall in the "warm sector" of a system, given it also happened not too long ago and how unusual it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 HRRR says i make a run at mid 40s with boomer tomorrow, plumes also down again with mean under 3" now at ORD Enjoy the 2-5” before that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Enjoy the 2.5” before that. . glad we agree on the 2.5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Well well things definitely trended up for me in NW Ohio! I really like the consensus of 4-6" here in Toledo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Baum said: your good for 5". MBY...not so much. Hopefully it will be a spead the wealth system across the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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