Gino27 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Right now it seems that north of I-70 will see some snow. It would have to take a much further south track for Indy, Cbus, and Pittsburgh to see anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Still have two events before I have time to pay attention to anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Malacka11 said: GHD II? 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: That is the storm I thought of after seeing his post and before reading yours lol. Generally speaking I think he's right though... the biggest ones typically are pointed ENE or NE. In fairness. Saginaw cnty only showing a 6-8" total per those maps (a little light for mby, so prolly up there as well), so hardly a Major for him. GHD-2 was a pretty rare W>>E big dog just going by memory Mid-Dec 2000 bliz is only other one like it in recent times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I do look pretty locked in right now so I guess based on recent model performance I should be worried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Right now it seems that north of I-70 will see some snow. It would have to take a much further south track for Indy, Cbus, and Pittsburgh to see anything significant. Yeah, I don't think this was ever an 1-70 special, nor do I see it becoming one. I-80 crew has at least a shot, but even that's tbd. Might come down to whether you live 10 miles N or 10 miles S of the freeway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I do look pretty locked in right now so I guess based on recent model performance I should be worried. Really nice stretch incoming for the twin cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 FWIW, WPC today sided with 18z Op run, keeping the +SN line NW of Lwr Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 MSP will manage somehow to end the week with 4" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Yeah, I don't think this was ever an 1-70 special, nor do I see it becoming one. I-80 crew has at least a shot, but even that's tbd. Might come down to whether you live 10 miles N or 10 miles S of the freeway.. Exactly but a few runs ago were advertising a decent front end thump before it changed over. Those are long long behind us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 You need to look at the set up, not just what the 10:1 prints 100+ hours outTo go back to this and your original post, I don't think surface low track is that important early on. Barring major changes, with the air mass we'll have in place, evaporative cooling will further knock down temps aloft so that we'll start as snow. But if you're trying to denote the areas favored to stay snow the entire event, then that's fair to start from the IL-WI border. Given latest data, I'd be surprised if most places, except maybe far southern CWA, don't start as snow and easily accumulate. The question becomes how quickly temps warm aloft with stout southerly flow and how much resistance is given by evaporative cooling. That's where the models rarely ever overestimate and often underestimate WAA. But even in this case, a solid front end thump can bring a few to several inches of snow prior to changeover. That's what WPC is favoring in their day 5 outlook, with most of the CWA in 70-90% probs for 0.25"+ liquid equivalent in snow/sleet accums, supported by the GEFS and EPS. In fact, the 12z EPS (haven't looked at 18z yet) had 80+% probs for 24 hour 10:1 snow accums of 3"+ for I-80 and north. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 21 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: To go back to this and your original post, I don't think surface low track is that important early on. Barring major changes, with the air mass we'll have in place, evaporative cooling will further knock down temps aloft so that we'll start as snow. But if you're trying to denote the areas favored to stay snow the entire event, then that's fair to start from the IL-WI border. Given latest data, I'd be surprised if most places, except maybe far southern CWA, don't start as snow and easily accumulate. The question becomes how quickly temps warm aloft with stout southerly flow and how much resistance is given by evaporative cooling. That's where the models rarely ever overestimate and often underestimate WAA. But even in this case, a solid front end thump can bring a few to several inches of snow prior to changeover. That's what WPC is favoring in their day 5 outlook, with most of the CWA in 70-90% probs for 0.25"+ liquid equivalent in snow/sleet accums, supported by the GEFS and EPS. In fact, the 12z EPS (haven't looked at 18z yet) had 80+% probs for 24 hour 10:1 snow accums of 3"+ for I-80 and north. Believe 18z ticked north. Might be noise level tbh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Believe 18z ticked north. Might be noise level tbh.. 84 hr 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: slow? Yes and that would not be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Believe 18z ticked north. Might be noise level tbh..Yep just looked, ticked north slightly, but can tell it also lost some of the beefier members, as the 24 hour mean came down over WI and far northern IL. At this point, can be considered noise level changes. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 84 hr 0z NAM slow? edit: accidentally deleted previous post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 00z GFS is not what you want to see for a good event...except for MN, central and northern WI, the UP and northern Lower MI. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Whelp, time for spring. Bring on Morch 2.0, and Forch 1.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 28 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 00z GFS is not what you want to see for a good event...except for MN, central and northern WI, the UP and northern Lower MI. The GFS, today, has trended toward sharper upper energy, which causes the surface feature to extend up into Minnesota. It seems a bit weird. The other models are not doing this. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Slower is bad, though I'm not sure on the low location and track. Seems a bit too far north in relation to the 500mb trough. Otherwise, this is going to shit pretty fast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 CMC is a little different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The GFS, today, has trended toward sharper upper energy, which causes the surface feature to extend up into Minnesota. It seems a bit weird. The other models are not doing this. Any thoughts?That is odd. 00z GEM looks close to what the general guidance consensus has been and nothing like the 00z GFS. If the GEFS (different physics package from op and all) diverges significantly from the operational, may have to chalk up the op to being an outlier if ECMWF is close to previous runs at 00z. Overall, it's hard to ascribe much to one of the models handling a feature differently as being anything but something that can happen in this range. And With the main wave still well out over the Pacific, we'll have to wait and see. But want to see more support for an operational GFS like outcome before getting too concerned by it.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: That is odd. 00z GEM looks close to what the general guidance consensus has been and nothing like the 00z GFS. If the GEFS (different physics package from op and all) diverges significantly from the operational, may have to chalk up the op to being an outlier if ECMWF is close to previous runs at 00z. Overall, it's hard to ascribe much to one of the models handling a feature differently as being anything but something that can happen in this range. And With the main wave still well out over the Pacific, we'll have to wait and see. But want to see more support for an operational GFS like outcome before getting too concerned by it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Just looking at 0z GEFS rolling in, it's definitely further south than the OP. Like you I'm not buying a GFS solution till I see more support. Curious to see if 0z euro holds firm or if we see a northern shift in the wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 CMC is a little different Kuchera totals Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro pushes the rain line to 88 in IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Time for spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said: Time for spring. Not before our late Winter severe and our mid-late April snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The thing about front end thumps is that you better get as much precip as you can while the thermal profiles are cold enough for snow. Speaking of that, expect considerable virga for a while. Initial precip will get eaten alive with a dry layer like this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 This def isn't the time to punt on this storm yet, considering the massive ensemble differences 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 hours ago, ChiTownStorm11 said: Time for spring. this is our spring. just expect it for another 120 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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