ILSNOW Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: More or less honing in on a general solution it seems. Thump snow chances best near/north of I-80, fairly wide area gets some ice due to northward progress 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 More or less honing in on a general solution it seems. Thump snow chances best near/north of I-80, fairly wide area gets some ice due to northward progression of waa. I don't trust how long into Friday evening the 12z Euro verbatim keeps 850 mb temps Conceptually with a setup close to as depicted would favor 3-6 hours of snow thump then mix/change to sleet then freezing rain and then plain rain, maybe flip back to snow on back side. Looks like a mess for the Friday PM commute as things stand now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Given the lingering emotional damage from this past weekend's storm, I will believe this when I have 5" down with favorable radar presentation ongoing. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I can smell the rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I don't trust how long into Friday evening the 12z Euro verbatim keeps 850 mb temps Conceptually with a setup close to as depicted would favor 3-6 hours of snow thump then mix/change to sleet then freezing rain and then plain rain, maybe flip back to snow on back side. Looks like a mess for the Friday PM commute as things stand now. Will be interesting to see how long the NAM keeps the column below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 GEFS mean took a jump south, seems like most ensembles take the SLP further south than the op run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 On a positive note, the models have been trending colder since yesterday. A lot of that has to do with the strong HP in Quebec. This storm won't make it onshore until Thursday morning so I'd expect some fluctuations till then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: On a positive note, the models have been trending colder since yesterday. A lot of that has to do with the strong HP in Quebec. This storm won't make it onshore until Thursday morning so I'd expect some fluctuations till then. To be fair though, we sad that about the last storm too until it dipped on us a run or two before onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: To be fair though, we sad that about the last storm too until it dipped on us a run or two before onset The HP placement is different than the last storm. We had to much WAA thanks to the strong SE ridge. It's a bit more suppressed with this event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Malacka11 said: Yet again it appears that some sort of cutoff will evolve right over N. IL. I fear this will be another nail biter Already called that...especially for Chicago Peeps, especially lake front..you know who you are.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I know I'm just appreciative there is something to track. Living in our climo locations it's never easy on models and even the pro mets and great hobbyist we have here really have their homework cut out for them each time. East coast mets get to see what transpires out here in flyover country and have more data to work with I think especially in the 3-5 day range where we are now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: The HP placement is different than the last storm. We had to much WAA thanks to the strong SE ridge. It's a bit more suppressed with this event. As I said earlier it is kind of weird to have such a strong high immediately to the Northeast instead of back to the west. What I do wonder with two of the three conveyor belts being drier air do you guys think it will lead to a colder and drier storm than is currently being modeled? My thoughts are that QPF is going to drop or be less than what is expected because of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Already called that...especially for Chicago Peeps, especially lake front..you know who you are.. absolutely nailed the last storm 4 days out, my call is gonna be $$$ again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, nwohweather said: As I said earlier it is kind of weird to have such a strong high immediately to the Northeast instead of back to the west. What I do wonder with two of the three conveyor belts being drier air do you guys think it will lead to a colder and drier storm than is currently being modeled? My thoughts are that QPF is going to drop or be less than what is expected because of this I mean qpf can always be over or under modeled. We won't know until within 24 hrs. But if you look at the 250mb wind map you'd see some subtropical influence and the PWAT maps indicate a good amount of moisture. It's a decent Colorado Low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: absolutely nailed the last storm 4 days out, my call is gonna be $$$ again www.betweather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: absolutely nailed the last storm 4 days out, my call is gonna be $$$ again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 haters^ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Depending on the storm track, I could very well look at 6+ hours of icing although temps will rise during the time. Likely will get at least .20 of ice from this, if not a quarter of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 My NWS office currently has my temp on Fri at 45. Think that needs to be adjusted down. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: absolutely nailed the last storm 4 days out, my call is gonna be $$$ again You got Joey posting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I mean qpf can always be over or under modeled. We won't know until within 24 hrs. But if you look at the 250mb wind map you'd see some subtropical influence and the PWAT maps indicate a good amount of moisture. It's a decent Colorado Low. Well I'm going less on models, and more on actuality here. It may be a Colorado Low with a solid gulf stream of moisture, but there are three streams at play as always which can make a big difference on different sectors of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 32 minutes ago, nwohweather said: As I said earlier it is kind of weird to have such a strong high immediately to the Northeast instead of back to the west. What I do wonder with two of the three conveyor belts being drier air do you guys think it will lead to a colder and drier storm than is currently being modeled? My thoughts are that QPF is going to drop or be less than what is expected because of this The surface high is pretty stout. We get them at that strength in that position sometimes but it is still fairly impressive. So, would not be shocked if the precip onset timing slows a bit. Models do try to account for dry air and when it becomes moist enough to generate qpf but still could take a little longer than they figure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: lol I think it's time to set some criteria for rainer. Raining after hours of snow/mix doesn't count. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I think it's time to set some criteria for rainer. Raining after hours of snow/mix doesn't count. 70% or more of precip being rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 @ dryness concerns. May have been mentioned that there should be less convection thievery than Sat's system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, RogueWaves said: @ dryness concerns. May have been mentioned that there should be less convection thievery than Sat's system? There's going to be little to none. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Can someone help me figure this forecast out??? Rain before 3 AM with a low of 24? Or is this just NWS point-and-click forecasting lack of specifics??? Never did get my 3 inches of snow to go sledding with my daughter. Damn well better happen this weekend!!! ;-) https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=179&y=80&site=lot&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=178&map_y=80 Thursday Night A slight chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Friday Snow before 1pm, then rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm, then rain after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Friday Night Rain before 3am, then rain and snow likely between 3am and 5am, then snow likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Here are the Jan high pressure records. No data for Canada but going to assume those would be > 1050 mb given the numbers in the northern tier of the US. The high with this is progged in the mid 1040s or so once it's in Ontario, so it's up there in terms of intensity but not really near the records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I can smell the bust from here haha. Seems like the qpf is overdone.. like several have mentioned the majority of the snow falling would be WAA snow - not saying 6-7” couldn’t fall from that, but I’d at least slice those numbers in half, especially around here with the slop that will likely mix in. Travelers advisory incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 46 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: Can someone help me figure this forecast out??? Rain before 3 AM with a low of 24? Or is this just NWS point-and-click forecasting lack of specifics??? Never did get my 3 inches of snow to go sledding with my daughter. Damn well better happen this weekend!!! ;-) https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=179&y=80&site=lot&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=178&map_y=80 Thursday Night A slight chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Friday Snow before 1pm, then rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm, then rain after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Friday Night Rain before 3am, then rain and snow likely between 3am and 5am, then snow likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Taken literally, the low of 24 could be right around sunrise or even a bit later. It could be much warmer several hours before that...in which case it could be raining. All this forecast does is predict the lowest temp (or highest temp) during the time period in question. It doesn't say how it got there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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