RCNYILWX Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Seems pretty bullish on evap cooling to maintain snow longer in N IL, but yeah, that looks a little precarious. Recall that's essentially what the non NAM guidance was showing for Feb 12, 2019 ice event. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Recall that's essentially what the non NAM guidance was showing for Feb 12, 2019 ice event. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I actually didn't remember. Thanks for the reminder. In regards to your previous post about faster than modeled surface warming with ESE/SE flow, I'd almost count on it as it sure seems like models are too slow to warm temps in these situations when there's any type of southerly component to the flow. But if the warming aloft also happens quicker, then it could sort of cancel out and still result in a decent period of icing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Whoa! 00z Euro is much colder aloft late in the week. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Good to see the Euro come in colder aloft. It looks like the 500 mb wave is less amped than the previous run and eventually the surface low comes out farther south. It's a solid antecedent air mass with the cold dry high pressure influence slower to depart and 850 mb level starts out quite dry and doesn't moisten as much as 12z run.But still odd to see the 850 mb level staying that cold due to evaporative cooling alone with straight southerly flow of 30-40 + kt. The southerly flow aloft is weaker than the 12z run, but still plenty for strong isentropic lift. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6z GFS improved again and is quite snowy here. Helps having a 1040+ sfc high bleeding into the area 12-15 hours before snow would begin. Thing to also watch is fast moving wave that moves through the Great Lakes on Wednesday as that’ll help to keep heights lower across the area before ridging eventually takes over. The GFS has slowly been trending south with that feature the last several runs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Yep, this is gonna be a good one. So nice to see a spread the wealth type system again on the models. Liking the probs for a sig event for the DVN/LOT cwas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 final call 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 ^^ Impressive. This non rainer forecast.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, DAFF said: ^^ Impressive. This non rainer forecast.. Hold up who says it's not a rain forecast? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 44 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yep, this is gonna be a good one. So nice to see a spread the wealth type system again on the models. Liking the probs for a sig event for the DVN/LOT cwas. I’m still not ready to be an optimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 final call 2.5"But how much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, King James said: But how much rain DAB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: DAB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 ^DAB in this case stands for "Drizzle at Best" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 might as well ride the seasonal trends (cringe) and go with a weak/progressive wave at this point euro in the dog house until it gets something right again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 some of our best snows have come as front end thumps to slop....however...they almost always occur when deep cold has been in place for awhile. This would be an unusual set up for a good front end frozen thump. We are essentially at or above normal temps for a few days and then a weak front backs in and drops us to near normal or slighty below right before the waa precip comes in. Seems to me the cold air is going to lose out much quicker than what the models are implying. We would need a wholesale change in the track of the low for me to get excited about this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: final call 2.5" Thats alot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 10 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Looks like a decent icing setup for a time because of the position of the high pressure off to the east and warm front stays south. Your east southeast wind trajectories are pulling from lower dew point air off to the east which would help with evaporative/wet bulb cooling. I do wonder if with that exact setup shown on GFS the surface warming would occur quicker once wind goes more southeast due to lack of any snow cover over the region. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yea it's an odd setup with regards to surface flow. Seems like models are trending more towards a WAA snow event and less icing now. Euro/gfs in decent agreement which is surprising this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z GFS is a bit colder initially, but still ends up far enough north to bring light rain to my area. The 12z Canadian is like the 00z Euro, keeping my area in snow throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Having trouble with making a gif on TT but anyway, here is a visual representation of the evap cooling. The band of colder 850 mb temps extending nw-se is near the leading edge of the precip. There will be evap cooling initially of course as the airmass saturates, so the question is how long it can fight off increasing waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Hmm looks much better. Anything to give me a reason for working from home for a few days I'm here for. Classic 6-10" heavy snow event for this area at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I am not getting my hopes up at all after the last storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Kind of wild to see the ridging that enforces the cold air ahead of this thing, should lead to quite a bit of CAD east of the Appalachians. Worries me quite a bit with moisture content, I know it has a solid flow out of the gulf but sucking cold dry air in from the Cold Conveyor Belt has me nervous, that moist air is key to heavy snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro coming in with a stronger low and a bit less cold again, although still cold enough to give my area a nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Euro coming in with a stronger low and a bit less cold again, although still cold enough to give my area a nice thump. Definitely warmer than 0z run. But like you said still a nice swath of snow and looked like more ice. Wish I could see ice totals on pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Yet again it appears that some sort of cutoff will evolve right over N. IL. I fear this will be another nail biter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Yet again it appears that some sort of cutoff will evolve right over N. IL. I fear this will be another nail biter Almost 10 years into this hobby and I am immune from all pain after getting burned time and time again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said: Almost 10 years into this hobby and I am immune from all pain after getting burned time and time again. I'm getting there, albeit slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 More or less honing in on a general solution it seems. Thump snow chances best near/north of I-80, fairly wide area gets some ice due to northward progression of waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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