Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

January 7th-8th Threat


Rjay
 Share

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Based upon surface obs that I am seeing most of the 10 and 15 dbz echoes in central PA are Virga and are not reaching the ground.  Snow is currently reaching the ground as far north as Shippensburg PA which is well SW of Harrisburg.

State College is getting Light Snow as well as per Met I read elsewhere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro is way to warm at the BL. Most on the coast start as L Rain and then transition to L Snow between 0z and 3z.

Little to no accumulation. 

I expect zero impact to the roads in and around the city and most coastal locals.

There`s a good chance more snow falls for some with the snow showers tomorrow than does tonight ( I don`t expect many reports of an inch ).

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just took this off the National Weather Service site I think they made a mistake can anyone confirm

 

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
340 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

CTZ007>012-NJZ006-106>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-082045-
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
340 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Snow this evening could be heavy at times and could result in snow of
2 to 4 inches. This will lead to slippery conditions on the roads
and low visibilities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Snow squalls will be possible on Wednesday, mainly in the late
morning through the afternoon. This will bring brief low visibilities
down to a quarter mile or less.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of 4 pm, Sterling (IAD) had picked up 1.7" snow. Precipitation in the greater Washington area should be winding down over the next 1-2 hours.

Based on observations, the edge of the accumulating snow had come farther north than shown on some of the modeling. As a result, Harrisburg had several periods of heavy snow. This may imply that a slice of Long Island (most likely Suffolk County) could see 1"-3" snow as the storm tracks well south and east of the New York City area. Islip could approach or reach the lower part of that range.

Over the course of the evening, light precipitation should change to snow in Philadelphia and Wilmington as temperatures fall. Atlantic City still looks likely to see 1" or less of snow, as the changeover could be too late to allow for much more to accumulate. At 4 pm, the temperature there was still a balmy 45°.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the National Weather Service latest discussion

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HRRR model is depicting afternoon snowfall upstream but seems to be
too slow with its movement and too far to the south.

Main issue for tonight is the snow. Expecting this to occur mainly
this evening to shortly after midnight. Timeframe of around 7pm
to 12am. There is a possibility depending on low position of
some moderate to heavy snow in that timeframe, with higher
chances of seeing this across Eastern Suffolk County Long Island
which will be relatively closer to the low as it is deepening
late this evening. Eastern Long Island also probably still
seeing some snow shortly after midnight, ending around 1-2am
there.

Low pressure moves off Mid-Atlantic and tracks south of Long Island
close to 40N/70W benchmark while deepening slightly. It further
deepens as it moves farther offshore and away from the region
overnight into very early Wednesday.

Precipitation amounts vary between the different forecast models.
They vary with the precip area north and west of the low. 12Z NAM
higher than other guidance but still want to weigh the NAM
solution in because of possible banding and any additional
deepening of low would result in expansion of precipitation area
and a more quick cooling of boundary layer.

Consensus of model data shows a relatively larger area of
precipitation encompassing the coastal sections of the region with
most interior areas like Orange, Putnam, and Western Passaic
counties being on the outer fringe of this precip area.

Precipitation is between a few hundredths of an inch to about three
tenths of an inch, lowest for far NW sections of region, highest SE
sections of region. Much of this occurs this evening, lasting longer
for Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut with some
lingering snow shortly after midnight.

There is potential for higher amounts of snow of a few inches more
than forecast if low is stronger and is closer to the coast. Models
keep a half to three quarter of an inch offshore but if this occurs
farther northwest over the coastal areas, there would a mix of rain
and snow changing to a relatively heavier snow, and about 2 to
3 inches more snow than forecast across all coastal areas.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...