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January 7th-8th Threat


Rjay
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12 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

To date, I have above average snowfall.  Granted the bulk of that fell in the early December storm. 

 

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I don't think anyone south of around I84 has gotten much of any snow so far this winter 

I am south of 84...by about 1/4-1/2 mile :P

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18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Surprised the 6Z NAM didn't reel people back into talking about this one, possibly a fluke run but will be interesting to see how far north the precip makes it with this.

It probably was.  The last few runs of the HRRR are pretty putrid though one can argue beyond 8 hours it’s iffy 

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18 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Nope not here. I'm at about 10" of frozen precip with about 2" of that being snow and the rest ice and sleet. 3 ice storms in a row to start the year kinda sux.

 

I’m in Dutchess County. Probably around 10” for the season but most of it sleet on top of snow. It had good staying power but it’s gone. I at least had a white Christmas. 

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31 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I don't think anyone south of around I84 has gotten much of any snow so far this winter 

Not quite.

I'm about 12 miles south of 84 in Orange County and have 15.6 inches on the season. Granted 12 of it from the December 1-3 storm so this is gradually descending into a C- winter here from what was an A, Dec 1 through the 15th.

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18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Go figure I’m in Syracuse this week and LI may get a half decent event. That’s how it’s essentially a guarantee this edges north a bit and swipes the area. 

Thank you for your sacrifice :D  We’ll take the 1” or so of snow we get here in the island tonight. 

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not quite.

I'm about 12 miles south of 84 in Orange County and have 15.6 inches on the season. Granted 12 of it from the December 1-3 storm so this is gradually descending into a C- winter here from what was an A, Dec 1 through the 15th.

this winter seems par for the course for a late 80s/early 90s kind of "winter."

 

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20 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

NOT TRYING to be pessimistic but this seems like its gonna be a 33 degree type of deal, anything beyond a coating is a win

cold air is marginal, so would agree-especially for urban areas, this is a white rain or car topper unless heavier rates occur.

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30 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The LP is really almost in a perfect position. Must be too much dry air, surprised precip field is so narrow on the models.

Gfs is so close for the city with the moderate precip.  Hits SNJ.

Hopefully the models are wrong with the placement.

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6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

WBW, I stand corrected as Rob is less than an hour North of me and that aint Buffalo. Thanks IrishRob 

based on Don S's snowfall tallies, looks like the average snowfall line is from Binghamton to Boston.  Time will tell if that progresses southward as the season moves along.

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

based on Don S's snowfall tallies, looks like the average snowfall line is from Binghamton to Boston.  Time will tell if that progresses southward as the season moves along.

 

That sounds about right. I'm 20 miles north of 84 with 13.5 so far which is about average. Albany(Capital region) has received about 30 so far which is half their seasonal total already. 

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At 11:10 am, snow had moved into Charlottesville. Ahead of the snow, temperatures had risen into the middle 40s in Atlantic City (45°), Baltimore (45°), and Washington, DC (45°). As precipitation arrives this afternoon, temperatures at those locations should fall. Therefore, rain should change to snow.

The 12z GFS has come in a little snowier. The 12z RGEM was fairly consistent with the 0z ECMWF. The HRRR is not impressed with the system.

Widespread 2"-3" amounts appear possible just to the west of the Baltimore-Washington corridor. As the storm deepens, some periods of moderate snow could also impact eastern Long Island. The potential for a narrow area of 1"-3" amounts in part of New Jersey exists. Therefore, I made some minor adjustments.

Overall, my thinking concerning snowfall amounts remains similar to that of last evening:

Atlantic City: 1" or less
Baltimore: 1"-3"
Harrisburg: 1" or less
Islip: 1" or less
New York City: 0.5" or less
Newark: 0.5" or less
Philadelphia: 1" or less
Sterling: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 1"-3"
Wilmington, DE: 1"-2"

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