Rjay Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 0z runs coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 NAM is coming in more north and amped, big hit up to CNJ and Eastern LI. City is still meh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM is coming in more north and amped, big hit up to CNJ and Eastern LI. City is still meh Very close Keeps ticking north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Very close Keeps ticking north This thing is juicy and bombing out, this would be a SECS if it was 75 miles more NW. This just seems like the winter the metro area can't get one to hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Better run for the Catskills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, sferic said: Better run for the Catskills? If you live in the catskills I'd be more closely tracking the weekend storm than this, this won't get that far north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 30 minutes ago, Rjay said: 0z runs coming up The last minute trends this winter have been ridiculous 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I don’t get why I can’t post my thinking here... why does it have to be deleted. Yanks and a lot of other guys post their maps and they don’t get deleted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The forecast 500 mb pattern on the 1/7/2020 0z NAM has some similarities to that which was present on January 20-21, 1994. Snowfall amounts on January 20, 1994 were as follows for select locations: Atlantic City: 0.2"; Baltimore: 3.1"; New York City: None; Philadelphia: 0.2"; and, Washington, DC: 1.9". At that time, a bitter Arctic air mass covered the East. This time around, that won't be the case. So, snowfall amounts will likely be lighter in Baltimore and Washington than they were back in 1994. At present, taking into consideration the latest guidance and the forecast 500 mb pattern with some modifications, likely snowfall amounts for the January 7-8 system for the Middle Atlantic region include: Atlantic City: 1" or less Baltimore: 1"-2" Harrisburg: 1" or less Islip: 0.5" or less New York City: 0.5" or less Newark: 0.5" or less Philadelphia: 1" or less Sterling: 1"-3" Washington, DC: 1"-2" Wilmington, DE: 1"-2" 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The forecast 500 mb pattern on the 1/7/2020 0z NAM has some similarities to that which was present on January 20-21, 1994. Snowfall amounts on January 20, 1994 were as follows for select locations: Atlantic City: 0.2"; Baltimore: 3.1"; New York City: None; Philadelphia: 0.2"; and, Washington, DC: 1.9". At that time, a bitter Arctic air mass covered the East. This time around, that won't be the case. So, snowfall amounts will likely be lighter in Baltimore and Washington than they were back in 1994. At present, taking into consideration the latest guidance and the forecast 500 mb pattern with some modifications, likely snowfall amounts for the January 7-8 system for the Middle Atlantic region include: Atlantic City: 1" or less Baltimore: 1"-2" Harrisburg: 1" or less Islip: 0.5" or less New York City: 0.5" or less Newark: 0.5" or less Philadelphia: 1" or less Sterling: 1"-3" Washington, DC: 1"-2" Wilmington, DE: 1"-2" Thanks Don. I'm betting the over on Islip and AC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Thanks Don. I'm betting the over on Islip and AC. Islip should do well in this kind of setup they usually do. Atlantic City will probably have mixing issues but just to the west of them in SNJ could be the sweet spot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 RGEM looks terrible outside of SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 18z eps snow mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Nam is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Nam is on its own. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Non event for the board. Even ACY will have mixing issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 GFS clobbers SNJ if it's snow. NYC meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS clobbers SNJ if it's snow. NYC meh. It's so damn close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Enigma said: Non event for the board. Even ACY will have mixing issues. I wouldn't say that just yet. This is really close to something interesting. The models this season have been horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: It did get marginally better but it wasn’t enough. Euro n uk next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I wouldn't say that just yet. This is really close to something interesting. The models this season have been horrendous. Let’s be real, models are not going to drastically change this close to the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Let’s be real, models are not going to drastically change this close to the event. It has happened before. This is way too close to just dismiss it. Snj looks to be the prime spot with a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 06z NAM looks great for the area, looks like a general 2-4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 21 minutes ago, David-LI said: 06z NAM looks great for the area, looks like a general 2-4 Hopefully it continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Good originating post: I'll drop my observations herein. I've added a statistical graphic from the NWS. It doesn't necessarily reflect ensembles issued after 0811z/8. NAM may be a little too strong but decent dendrite growth seen for an hour or 2 tonight in our NY metro area... am a little concerned about rain at the start, before being overcome top down with a change to wet snow, especially NYC. You'll see later model guidance after this post, which hopefully directs us to a reasonable expectation of reality. Right now, am thinking anywhere from 1-4" ne PA and nw NJ based on all the guidance i've seen so far. (event between ~6P-2A tonight). Enjoy the day, Walt 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 hours ago, David-LI said: 06z NAM looks great for the area, looks like a general 2-4 Looks super warm though. Another car topper? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 27 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Looks super warm though. Another car topper? Yeah, your going to need good rates. So any real impact is south of the city where those rates will occur. Should look great in the trees again. Obviously even a 25 mile shift north will have huge implications. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: North of nyc getting good snow so far this year now possibly south of nyc cool times. WBW , maybe you are talking about Buffalo as I have not gotten anything close to good snow, I guess it depends on a persons definition of GOOD SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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