Natester Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Someone, somewhere along a very narrow axis is going to get a crippling ice storm, especially areas close to the Mississippi River in Iowa. As for here in Cedar Rapids, it's likely going to be a sleet/snow mix unless the forecast track shifts more NW again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 22 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: tone serious: this looks like a rainer tho, antecedent airmass is trash and the western trough is gonna crank heights. madison special incoming. 22 hours ago, Stebo said: The air mass is the cold air pressing in not the prefrontal airmass which is why there is a lot of ice being shown especially with the multiple piece setup it is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 NAM is a bit windy... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 23 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Going neg. tilt over AMA. We are so donzo Loses the neg tilt after that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 35 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: this is def one of those storms where we are gonna see some extreme amped nw nam runs Like, congrats Calgary? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 This is purely a "marketing" or "public relations" question, not a criticism of the NWS by any means. Does publishing an image like the one below (from NWS Chicago a few minutes ago) provide clarity to the general public? Those of us here are following models, each track shift, freezing lines, and listening to the voices from our voodoo dolls that whisper the weather future, etc. But does the average person get the intended message out of the image below? Also, what is the key for the two different colors? I get the dark blue is the main risk area, but what is that? 50% chance? This seems to me like some type of NWS model output that is so simplified that is loses meaning. Once again, mean absolutely no disrespect. Just curious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 33 minutes ago, Stebo said: Keep moving northwest, I want the warm sector and thunder. Won't take much more to get IN/OH into low end severe potential. I'll take that over 4 inches of 40-50 degree rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 42 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: legit shorts weather for the OH peeps 35 minutes ago, Stebo said: Keep moving northwest, I want the warm sector and thunder. 70?!?!?!....in January?!?!?!?..... OH HELL YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, buckeye said: 70?!?!?!....in January?!?!?!?..... OH HELL YES! Got your April parka image on standby, right?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Icon coming south.The beginning of the SE trend? Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Been wearing shorts in Ohio all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: This is purely a "marketing" or "public relations" question, not a criticism of the NWS by any means. Does publishing an image like the one below (from NWS Chicago a few minutes ago) provide clarity to the general public? Those of us here are following models, each track shift, freezing lines, and listening to the voices from our voodoo dolls that whisper the weather future, etc. But does the average person get the intended message out of the image below? Also, what is the key for the two different colors? I get the dark blue is the main risk area, but what is that? 50% chance? This seems to me like some type of NWS model output that is so simplified that is loses meaning. Once again, mean absolutely no disrespect. Just curious. More to emphasize the broad range of possiblities.... The avg person should read that as the lighter areas expect impactful travel and in the darker areas, more so but uncertainty as to exactly where this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, roardog said: Icon coming south.The beginning of the SE trend? Lol Totally different evolution than any other model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: This is purely a "marketing" or "public relations" question, not a criticism of the NWS by any means. Does publishing an image like the one below (from NWS Chicago a few minutes ago) provide clarity to the general public? Those of us here are following models, each track shift, freezing lines, and listening to the voices from our voodoo dolls that whisper the weather future, etc. But does the average person get the intended message out of the image below? Also, what is the key for the two different colors? I get the dark blue is the main risk area, but what is that? 50% chance? This seems to me like some type of NWS model output that is so simplified that is loses meaning. Once again, mean absolutely no disrespect. Just curious. Looks like some devil-monster about to eat Jefferson City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 46 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: High moving in is slower, thus the changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: That bit of snow out east shows that it can snow even with hostile indices. The AO is raging positive and the NAO is positive. You'd definitely rather not have that combo though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That bit of snow out east shows that it can snow even with hostile indices. The AO is raging positive and the NAO is positive. You'd definitely rather not have that combo though lol. that's all that's left of the blizzard you and Alek were suppose to get from 10 days ago.. .it's the rotting carcass falling to the ground and rolling off the coast. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Love me some Skilling analysis... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 ^ i like it. He trashed the highly regarded Euro model. Without trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 GFS handles the trough a lot differently than the Euro... much more neutral than the very pronounced neg tilt on the Euro. 18z Euro will be out in a while so we'll get an idea of whether it doubles down on the 12z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: GFS handles the trough a lot differently than the Euro... much more neutral than the very pronounced neg tilt on the Euro. 18z Euro will be out in a while so we'll get an idea of whether it doubles down on the 12z run. Speaking of 18z runs... The 18z GEM came in much slower with the main wave, digging into N. Mexico a bit this run. The run only goes to 84hrs, but the setup would lead me to believe it would go negative tilt and eject out similar to the Euro, as the next trough enters the PAC NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Speaking of 18z runs... The 18z GEM came in much slower with the main wave, digging into N. Mexico a bit this run. The run only goes to 84hrs, but the setup would lead me to believe it would go negative tilt and eject out similar to the Euro, as the next trough enters the PAC NW. Way down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 hours ago, LansingWeather said: Man I'm sick of the heat, I want the freezing rain or snow! I'd be sick of the quakes, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 IND betting on the Euro vs GFS at present for heavy rain in central IN. The 12z ECMWF is now a much more reliable model than the GFS and has support from the ensembles. The GFS was much quicker and weaker with a wave along the front. The Euro brings surface wave from southern Arkansas to central Illinois on Saturday. Strong synoptic lift and jet streak interaction combined with the thermodynamics will result in widespread rain and heavy at times Friday night and Saturday. Storm Total WPC QPF through Saturday night is on the order of 3 to 5 inches over the area. This amount will result in moderate flooding over some parts of area rivers and also result in some flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 29 minutes ago, Indystorm said: IND betting on the Euro vs GFS at present for heavy rain in central IN. The 12z ECMWF is now a much more reliable model than the GFS and has support from the ensembles. The GFS was much quicker and weaker with a wave along the front. The Euro brings surface wave from southern Arkansas to central Illinois on Saturday. Strong synoptic lift and jet streak interaction combined with the thermodynamics will result in widespread rain and heavy at times Friday night and Saturday. Storm Total WPC QPF through Saturday night is on the order of 3 to 5 inches over the area. This amount will result in moderate flooding over some parts of area rivers and also result in some flash flooding. Waiting on the NAM's range to see if the ol' EE rule will be in effect. Yes, that was dragged out of the archives. I think that is what Hoosier was alluding to above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: I'd be sick of the quakes, too! Luckily I am not down there right now and I have no property! But yes it's getting very crazy there, be interesting to see if they continue to get worse. Word from friends are quite a lot of destruction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 0z NAM is one of those runs you only see once in a while.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Epic ice/snowstorm.Axis of 12”+ snow, and 1-2”+ ice.And it’s still going at 84hr, end of run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now