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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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19 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Defo band continues to fall apart. Under and inch imby, and the remaining band isn’t going to be very impressive for anyone 

The 17th -18th system is calling. Like a carrot just out of reach. 14-16th already dead

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Just now, donsutherland1 said:

As of 8 pm, Detroit had received 1.98" precipitation today. That surpasses both the one- and two-day precipitation records for January. The one-day record was 1.76", which was set on January 12, 1908. The two-day record was 1.90", which was set on January 3-4, 1993.

About the only thing that ended up verifying from this trash storm, still on the low side of the forecast window.

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Just now, King James said:


Just talking about the skid mark in the toilet bowl at this point

Quite the visual :lol: Our forecasters here lucked out since there was never a real threat of frozen precip in Northern Indiana. I feel bad for the mets who had the change the forecast like 7 times as this thing came closer. 

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MCD regarding frozen precip in Michigan. 

MD 47 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 0047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0725 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

   Areas affected...central/southern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 120125Z - 120730Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will continue/develop across
   southern and central Lower Michigan tonight. Snow may mix in as well
   at times.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is lifting northeast
   across the Midwest and Great Lakes with a surface front south of the
   Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. The surface freezing line is
   oriented southwest-northeast across southern Lower Michigan with a
   warm nose still evident between 850-700 mb in 0000 UTC DTX and ILX
   soundings. Much of the lifting is occurring above 700 mb (below 0C)
   with light freezing rain/drizzle resulting across a relatively
   narrow corridor across Lower Michigan. Sleet and snow will also be
   possible as the warm nose erodes tonight/overnight and surface
   temperatures continue to fall. Precipitation rates will likely
   increase in the coming hours as stronger forcing for ascent arrives
   leading to accumulating ice, sleet, and snow. Precipitation will
   likely continue through 0700 UTC and decreasing from southwest to
   northeast.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 01/12/2020
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Was out an about today. Felt like it was 70 this morning lol. I'm certainly glad we didn't get the forecast 5-6 inches of rain.  Ended up with a little over 2.5.   The areas in the pics normally flood like this with 3-4 in a 48 hour period.  If they flooded like this with 2.5 in 48 hours this area dodged a messy bullet......

 

20200111_171223.jpg

Resized_20200111_170901.jpeg

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Had a few hours of nice rippage here and ended up with around 2in. Deformation band was rather disorganized and fast moving. This storm has been a real nightmare for forecasting. Low in the end was weaker and further east. Temp profiles were very problematic as well. I commend the nws offices for a great job with a difficult forecast

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