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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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Just now, Kaner88 said:

Wouldn't be right for the NAM to show anything aside from an apocalypse though

True. Given my experience for MBY a rainstorm. dryslot. Brief period of frain/sleet. Surprise defo band of 2" perhaps a bit more. J just don't want a cold april.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Central/southern LOT.  I want my 4", or at least over 3"

I think 3-4" QPF has always been a pipe dream. Esp  given convection south. I expect an inch rain...a bit of frain.....2-3" heavy wet snow. NAM looks on target QPF wise. And this is for 20 miles due west of loop.

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3 minutes ago, Baum said:

I think 3-4" QPF has always been a pipe dream. Esp  given convection south. I expect an inch rain...a bit of frain.....2-3" heavy wet snow. NAM looks on target QPF wise. And this is for 20 miles due west of loop.

Definitely going to be well over 1" of rain/precip...easily.

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3 minutes ago, Baum said:

I think 3-4" QPF has always been a pipe dream. Esp  given convection south. I expect an inch rain...a bit of frain.....2-3" heavy wet snow. NAM looks on target QPF wise. And this is for 20 miles due west of loop.

Been run after run of it on multiple models in the area I mentioned, including the ECMWF.  It will be a fail if amounts like the 00z NAM verify.  The NAM can be kind of goofy even close in though so not totally buying yet.  

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Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

My kids are going sleet sledding. 

I said all I wanted from this storm was 2-3 inches. Of what, I don't care as long as it is frozen. 

There is going to be some area within a 25-50 miles from the snow that is not expecting the ice and it is not going to be good. 

 

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4 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

I said all I wanted from this storm was 2-3 inches. Of what, I don't care as long as it is frozen. 

There is going to be some area within a 25-50 miles from the snow that is not expecting the ice and it is not going to be good. 

 

Seems these setups always surprise one way or the other. So many factors at play, that even a small change has significant sensible weather impacts

 

someone is getting snow that doesn’t expect it, and vise versa 

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Getting some lightning, eh? That line is sliding just southeast of me. I wasn't really expecting any thunder this far north, but am thinking SE IN/SW OH may get some wind out of a T-storm

Yeah forgot how loud thunder is in colder denser air.  No ground strikes but certainly lit up the sky for about 10 minutes.  Was never really in the game for frozen with this one (except 10 days out lol).  Really not looking forward to 48 hours of deluge coming.  Not to "rain" on those to the NW parade but I'm rooting for some big convection down south to put a big dent in the gulf flow.  It takes forever to dry out when we get decent rain in the winter.   

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