RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Starting to wonder if this event will have similarities to the 12/28/15 major sleet event. The cold press from the north will be similar and in that event we were coming off an incredibly torchy month. We were more concerned about icing threat and sleet became the much bigger deal except near and south of I-80. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Significant differences in the placement of the 2m 32F line on the GFS and NAM as early as around 60 hours. Often the NAM will be colder at the surface, but not this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 This is one of those "unlikely but holy shit if it happened" runs Nearly 2 inches of ice in Southern Lower and Northern IN, with ice still falling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Starting to wonder if this event will have similarities to the 12/28/15 major sleet event. The cold press from the north will be similar and in that event we were coming off an incredibly torchy month. We were more concerned about icing threat and sleet became the much bigger deal except near and south of I-80. Just missed the more significant ice here with that one. Had a lot of sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The 00z CMC is mostly rain in Chicago and Detroit. The ice line is bit further north than the GFS/NAM, but YYZ gets a significant ice storm. Eastern Iowa is the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: This is one of those "unlikely but holy shit if it happened" runs Nearly 2 inches of ice in Southern Lower and Northern IN, with ice still falling I’m considering picking up the towel I threw in earlier today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: The 00z CMC is mostly rain in Chicago and Detroit. The ice line is bit further north than the GFS/NAM, but YYZ gets a significant ice storm. Eastern Iowa is the winner. It looks like the High across northern Ontario is stronger and moves in at the right time to filter low level cold air across our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just like with severe wx this looks almost like a "day of" forecast. The ice line keeps shifting among model runs for Chi town and nw and northern IN. Down here in central IN forecasters are calling for 2-4 inches of rain. If this materializes the copious moisture should be thrown north to make some of these ridiculous precip totals actually verify. Fly in the ointment as has been mentioned is convection and svr storms down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The CMC is a bullseye for me in WI. Can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Toronto4 said: It looks like the High across northern Ontario is stronger and moves in at the right time to filter low level cold air across our area. Yup. It would be disastrous if we saw a repeat of 2013. For now it more closely resembles the Apr. 2018 sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Starting to wonder if this event will have similarities to the 12/28/15 major sleet event. The cold press from the north will be similar and in that event we were coming off an incredibly torchy month. We were more concerned about icing threat and sleet became the much bigger deal except near and south of I-80. I don't know who is doing the overnight at LOT but good luck to whomever it is. Huge differences in sensible outcomes for the area with the GEM adding to the uncertainty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: The 00z CMC is mostly rain in Chicago and Detroit. The ice line is bit further north than the GFS/NAM, but YYZ gets a significant ice storm. Eastern Iowa is the winner. Ice line is further south then 12Z. Literally going to be a thread the needle event with the changing models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 In terms of headlines, would any watches go out tomorrow? Or Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Moosey2323 said: In terms of headlines, would any watches go out tomorrow? Or Friday? I'd guess Friday, way too much uncertainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The most amazing thing about this? Models actually show snow falling during daylight on Saturday when I can see it. I didn't think that was possible. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 00z UK only moved nw a little. The second wave is still mostly a MO/IL/seWI event. Far e/se IA gets clipped with a few inches. This is yet another model that has mostly lost the first-wave precip in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I don't know who is doing the overnight at LOT but good luck to whomever it is. Huge differences in sensible outcomes for the area with the GEM adding to the uncertainty.I'm doing the winds, and another thing that is extremely concerning given the lake levels is the lakeshore flood threat. But as for the rest of the elements, it'll be Carlaw again. Our last mid of 7. New crew tomorrow night, both good forecasters, MTF and Kluber. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 In terms of headlines, would any watches go out tomorrow? Or Friday?Some tonight in northwest LOT CWA is a decent possibility I think. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just took a look at 00z NAM and it would suggest big time sleet on Saturday roughly from ORD southwest to about VYS. I took a photo of one of our internal ptype derivation grids, negative energy low level, from the modified Bourgoin energy technique, which the original can be found on BUFKIT and pivotalwx soundings (lower right). All the areas in the dark blue would be sleet, with the white/pink area in between a transition IP/ZR zone depending on sfc T. This is valid 21z Saturday. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks like either a pretty nice sleet/mixed bag storm with a couple inches of backside snow, or perhaps a pretty significant snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: Looks like either a pretty nice sleet/mixed bag storm with a couple inches of backside snow, or perhaps a pretty significant snowstorm. Kind of feel the same about this area. Tomorrow's runs will be fun to watch come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Kind of feel the same about this area. Tomorrow's runs will be fun to watch come in. Yeah, it feels like it's been awhile since we've seen a classic Panhandle Hook (the kind that are compared to 12/1/06 and 2/5-6/08 like this one has at times). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 0z euro very amped. Has heaviest snow axis pretty much out of IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 So close. Ugh. Need the slightest se shift. Probably going to end up seeing mostly rain here. What a waste of a dynamic system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Lakeshore flooding is gonna be a huge issue with these amped solutions. Look at the Euro lol wew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Incredible map. 70 into central OH? And keep in mind this is after normal peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Euro would be a major sleet/freezing rain storm here, with perhaps a few inches of snow at the end. After such a long and dull period of weather I could get down with a good sleet storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Incredible map. 70 into central OH? And keep in mind this is after normal peak heating. Yeah and then you have low 20s just north over the northern half of lower-Michigan. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I did not realize until now that our temp Saturday will be that low. Dry snow and strong wind will make it tough to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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