Baum Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I'm still in the game. Heavy Rain to a period of Ice and back end Thump. Call of 3.1 could work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I know it's dangerous to extrapolate radar returns, but the way the band is shaping up right now, it looks like Champagne to South Bend is going to be the sweet spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 travelers advisory criteria 1-3 inches for chicago seems the best bet at this point for later today and tonight, the trends really working against anything more...if you are on the lakefront such as on the beach then you took the brunt of this monster otherwise it was a major bust 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, jlauderdal said: travelers advisory criteria 1-3 inches for chicago seems the best bet at this point for later today and tonight, the trends really working against anything more...if you are on the lakefront such as on the beach then you took the brunt of this monster otherwise it was a major bust LOT 12:01 update still calling for 2-5". Even if it's a 1-3" fall really not a bust for chicago proper...unless your saying the amount of rainfall busted based on forecast. Which is fine by me. I'd rather not waste my winter QPF on nighttime rainstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 That's not whats happening so far. The arc of rain has been more progressive, instead of training.It showed much deeper convection on the models than what we are seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, nwohweather said: It showed much deeper convection on the models than what we are seeing There is an arc of deep convection from the Gulf into Canada. Moisture transport is not being hindered for anything currently ongoing. As I mentioned, activity has just been more progressive than expected. Even going back to model guidance just from 24hrs ago, guidance was too slow with eastward progression and over-estimated training. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Zzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Lakeshore conditions are fairly significant in NE. Illinois. High waves and surge are causing widespread flooding and erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I know it's dangerous to extrapolate radar returns, but the way the band is shaping up right now, it looks like Champagne to South Bend is going to be the sweet spot.I’ll take it considering I was never in the game until today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Lakeshore conditions are fairly significant in NE. Illinois. High waves and surge are causing widespread flooding and erosion. High water, near record levels, aren't helping....a far cry from record low levels in 2013ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Going on almost a 24 hr wind event to rile up the lake. Not good for the south shore for sure. Winds have slacked off here. Prob experienced the worst of the wind here in round 1 and intermission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Lakeshore conditions are fairly significant in NE. Illinois. High waves and surge are causing widespread flooding and erosion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Highest rain report I’ve seen in the region.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: . 13 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: That could be coastal flooding in a noreaster in like Boston. This is got to be one of the first times there has been actual storm surge from Lake Michigan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 At the end of the day, qpf is still one of the lower skilled attributes of the models. But when you have a consensus for certain amounts, it is easy to get lulled into thinking it will happen. So yes, there was underachievement depending on where you are, but the high totals are verifying or will come close in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 This deformation band is looking pretty anemic. Unless it really blossoms later, snow totals will bust bad which already looked bleak with a more organized band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: This deformation band is looking pretty anemic. Unless it really blossoms later, snow totals will bust bad which already looked bleak with a more organized band It's actually performing fairly well down southwest, with widespread 2-5" reports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: This deformation band is looking pretty anemic. Unless it really blossoms later, snow totals will bust bad which already looked bleak with a more organized band It looks exactly as advertised by the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Now that synoptic precip has waned, LES is much more evident across SE. WI and NE. IL. UGN and RAC reporting 3/4M vis right now. At first I thought they were off given only light LES returns, until I checked webcams in the area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Its been pixie here here up until a few mins ago when a few dendi's started mixing in. round 2 should start up in a hr or so if reading the euro right and start to tail off between 9-10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 37 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Its been pixie here here up until a few mins ago when a few dendi's started mixing in. round 2 should start up in a hr or so if reading the euro right and start to tail off between 9-10pm. We’ve had on and off flakes since I woke up (aka the kids woke me up) this morning. At times it has actually looked pretty legit. It’s still only accumulated about an inch on the grass. Whatever happens this evening, I’m just glad we didn’t get the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 light glaze on everything in these parts. Frizzle mixed with some light snow. Actually legit snow starting to commence. Not sure if lake aided or the defo band is developing overhead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Sleet from this morning is gone and now we are getting a nice glaze of freezing rain on everything. My anemometer froze up about an hour ago even with a 20+ MPH wind blowing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 305 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 .SHORT TERM... 305 PM CST Through tonight... ...Winter Weather... Our period of heavy snow this evening continues to be main focus of the forecast this afternoon. A band of moderate to heavy snow has been ongoing over parts of western MO the last couple hours. This is the the area in which the strongest large scale and mesoscale forcing for ascent are coinciding as the main mid/large scale impulse shifts eastward. This heavy snow has produced up to 1" inch per hour rates for the past few hours at KMCI (Kansas City), with a total of 3 inches of snow within only as mainly hours. Visibilities were also reported to drop briefly to 1/8 of a mile in heavy snow. Given these upstream trends, I see no reason why our area will not experience similar conditions this evening as the main upper level impulse moves over our area. In fact, the dynamics over our area this evening could even end up being a bit stronger than those observed over western MO. This is because the main mid-level trough is expected to begin to take on a bit of a negative tilt as it approaches the area this evening. This in turn should help sharpen the lower level circulation pattern, and result in an enhanced band of low-mid level frontogenesis. The strong dynamics will also coincide with a corridor of steeper mid-level lapse rates, which will also aid in heavier banding. Overall, while light precipitation has been ongoing across the area for much of the day, expect more substantial precipitation to rapidly blossom over the area over the next few hours, as the better dynamics begins shifting over the area. The precipitation will likely begin as a wintry mix of sleet, snow and possibly some rain, especially along and east of the I-55 corridor. The snow will be moderate to heavy at times, especially between 6 and 9 pm this evening, when 1" per hour rates are likely. North- northeasterly winds are expected to ease a bit during the period of heavy snow, though they will likely remain gusty up around 30 to 35 mph, especially near the lake. For this reason, some blowing and drifting snow could aid in significantly reducing visibilities for a period this evening. Total snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are likely, with the highest amounts expected right across northeastern IL. Lighter amounts are likely farther to the south and east into northwestern IN. The snow is still expected to tapper off from southwest to northeast shortly after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Northeast Indiana checking in. Typical winter weather system for this part of the sub: Sitting at ~2.5 inches of liquid. Waiting with bated breath for my DAB bringing up the rear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Developing nicely on the ILX radar. Nice lake effect into western cook as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Kansas City had 3" in 3 hours earlier, per LOT AFD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 So far 2.22" since yesterday in the bucket here at DTW. Been pretty much on pace with what was expected and should pick up at least .5" more before all is said and done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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