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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That would be a pleasant surprise. 

we have transitioned to mostly snow in naperville, flake size very anemic bit still its snow and not liquid, saw plenty of that last night, was sleet last few hours...my prediction for later tonight, someone gets a flurry fest while 30 miles away they get 4+,  there is a screw job on the way somewhere..does seem that this snow has started earlier than forecasted a mere 12 hours ago

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See attached wind and temperature profiles this morning for my location.  Couple of things of note.  The actual wind change generally to the NE occurred at a wind lull.  The wind change well proceeded the actual temperature drop although a sharp gust occurred at the exact moment of the sudden temperature drop.  

 

 

temp 1.JPG

wind2.JPG

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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The summary so far is guidance sucked, and an under-performance just about everywhere in every aspect...almost.

Only things that seem to be panning out are the high winds and a corridor in MO/IL/IN that did as expected with rainfall.


.

Weather Channel has Cantore in Milwaukee and Paul Goodlow in St Charles, IL

Will be interesting to see if they are still doing live shots in 12 hours or if they pack up and go home.

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43 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The summary so far is guidance sucked, and an under-performance just about everywhere in every aspect...almost.

Only things that seem to be panning out are the high winds and a corridor in MO/IL/IN that did as expected with rainfall.


.

I see no one rushing to post new run cycles of various models

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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

No real point now given how terrible guidance is, just a guessing game.

Still a spread for later today/tonight. Metro could get 1-3" or 4-7". Who knows anymore...

This thread will either turn into pictures of 20 foot waves on Lake Michigan or people’s brown backyards.

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Just now, michaelmantis said:

This thread will either turn into pictures of 20 foot waves on Lake Michigan or people’s brown backyards.

 

13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

No real point now given how terrible guidance is, just a guessing game.

Still a spread for later today/tonight. Metro could get 1-3" or 4-7". Who knows anymore...

You've followed winter weather quite awhile. What percentage of these WSWs or WWAs do you think end up meeting the criteria? Ball park estimate

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what a disaster of a system forecast wise...will the public even take seriously the next event thanks to media and social media hype from this one

1) Snow totals busted..(deform band may save the day in a few places)

2) No widespread Massive ice 

3) no 3-5 inches of rain up north

4)  No overnight Tornado outbreak over the south from discrete cells ahead of the line (just spin ups within the line)

 

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Yeah, there is plenty of evidence for a 2-3 hour period of heavy snow this evening. The latest RAP shows strong lift (best just above the DGZ) and banding potential. The lake should also continue to contribute with 0-1km lapse rates near 10C/km (when modified for lake temps).

15Z_RAP.thumb.png.fed7feb239f29263095cbca49eaebba3.png15Z_RAPlift.png.90568247713b140045860ed2cdc5d229.png

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12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

LE ongoing in SE. WI and NE. IL.

That should bode well for enhancement of snows later.

This is really interesting. I think there is some seeding from above going on. Aircraft soundings from ORD, MDW and MKE show temps around 1KM up -4 to -5C but there is about 5000' of temps above freezing above that. I'd have thought the light precip from the higher cloud layers would entirely melt before being able to seed the lake-effect precip, but maybe not given the snow reports?

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