Chicago Storm Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Canadian and UK are both southeast and faster/weaker. Both models have removed anything significant for Iowa. My area is still on the nw edge of the snow on the GFS. For us, it's down to the Euro and NAM. GEM is big on the ice for your area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: GEM is big on the ice for your area though. Does it have more sleet or more ice for SE Wisconsin replacing the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: GEM is big on the ice for your area though. Yeah, I forgot about the first wave. That's a bit of a mystery, though. A couple models have nothing here from the first wave while the Canadian and Euro show a decent slug of precip passing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Small differences affecting very populated areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, wisconsinwx said: Does it have more sleet or more ice for SE Wisconsin replacing the snow? More ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I’m still not sure what exactly to expect from this system. Some models(UK/GEM/ICON) show very little, while others(NAM/EC/GFS) show a solid hit. I’m still worried about being missed SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Small differences affecting very populated areas That's what I'm hoping for... How likely is it that temps are just a few degrees colder and everything falls here as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Small differences affecting very populated areas These two maps tell the whole story for me. Either has me in the 25-28 temp range with the GFS or hugging 32 degrees with the NAM. (Northern Kane County in IL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: January 12, 1960 The precip will bridge Friday and Saturday so it may be tough to do the daily record but maybe a decent chance to set an unofficial record for 2-day total for the month of January. The calendar day precip record for meteorological winter is *probably* safe lol. 4.47" on December 2, 1982. Here's the link to the attached Chicago's daily record listings for January and then you can access the other months from there: https://www.weather.gov/lot/January_Daily_Records_Chicago Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk for the River level forecasts: Do you happen to know if they used 48 hour rainfall (12z today thru 12z Sat) or used the full 3 days on the WPC forecast (another inch or so after 12z Sat) it is obviously not just the next 24 hours like it says in the wording Have family members that get isolated when the river hits 25.8 at PIA crest 23.4 just issued right now it looks like the SE part of the IL river basin gets 4 inches(with that much also falling south of the basin.. the rest 1-3... of course a shift in the heavy band will affect the levels i think it will shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: That's what I'm hoping for... How likely is it that temps are just a few degrees colder and everything falls here as snow? Is there a "it's not happening" meme? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Is there a "it's not happening" meme? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Is there a "it's not happening" meme? Ask and ye shall receive... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Damn, we're good... ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 At forecast hour 12, the Euro is already 10 degrees warmer than the NAM 3km 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Euro is going to be an ice crush job for N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The euro is basically just drowning Chicagoland in freezing rain at this point. It makes my mind smolder to think that a couple degrees temperature change is all that separates us from a foot of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12z Euro coming in with very similar storm track to 6z run. However, it is wetter/colder overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Malacka11 said: The euro is basically just drowning Chicagoland in freezing rain at this point. It makes my mind smolder to think that a couple degrees temperature change is all that separates us from a foot of snow. Low track is further south than the last run. Edit: disregard. Ends up pretty close to earlier run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The Euro is still a lot warmer than the NAM. That warm front placement is still very uncertain and will dictate the precipitation for Michigan especially 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 euro nearly all rain imby with a backside DAB+ sounds very reasonable tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Anyone have access to the ice maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Really like the Euro and the dry slot it is showing. Also have to take into consideration that a major severe outbreak down south could disrupt moisture transport and lead to slightly lesser totals, especially on the cold side of this low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Really tough situation for IWX about the MI counties, could get nuclear ice or all rain I bet they go Watch for their MI counties for ice concerns Saturday. I could see them including northern tier of IN counties and then deciding on upgrades later. I really think the state line is going to be the dividing line between cold rain and freezing rain/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: euro nearly all rain imby with a backside DAB+ sounds very reasonable tho We get you gotta ride that call into the ground but it's clearly not lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Woulda been nice to get a solid consensus this morning instead of more spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I think the general rule of thumb is to underestimate the northward extent of the warm front, especially in situations with convection to the south. The Euro/Canadian seems to place the warm front too far north. I think the NAM 3km is the better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I'm probably 30 miles from a sig snow event so I'm really hoping that this can come a bit south. Hopefully convection can do the trick and put N IL into the snow although I have doubts it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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