cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: I did not realize until now that our temp Saturday will be that low. Dry snow and strong wind will make it tough to measure. 1st-world problems lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, cyclone77 said: 1st-world problems lol. Right?! Meanwhile I'm like inches of cold rain with minimal ice and snow. Joy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I did not realize until now that our temp Saturday will be that low. Dry snow and strong wind will make it tough to measure. This says Sunday, so idk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, chuckster2012 said: This says Sunday, so idk.. That's Saturday at like 6pm. It's Sunday in UTC time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Lake Michigan shore is going to take a beating even if this backs down a little. Most of this will probably get down to the surface with it only being at 925 mb. A bad combination with the ice. I think excessive wind during freezing rain actually hurts accretion rates a bit, but perhaps somebody can chime in. I think the most "ideal" scenario is to accrete and then bring in the big winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The 6z NAM actually looks like it increased ice amounts in N IL. Very concerning because a lot could be lost to runoff but it would still end up being a big deal in tandem with the wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: The 6z NAM actually looks like it increased ice amounts in N IL. Very concerning because a lot could be lost to runoff but it would still end up being a big deal in tandem with the wind. IWX pointing out that the NAM is bad for ice throughout their northern CWA, the just above ground temps are below freezing Have favored the cooler models for the shallow cold air Saturday that originally included just the GFS, but now the NAM is showing a very shallow layer of cold air just above the surface that will likely be below freezing for several hours. Believe the greatest winter weather impact if the surface temperatures are cold enough will be from freezing rain. NAM BUFKIT 00Z and 06Z runs showed several hours of freezing rain Saturday into Saturday night. After coordination with Chicago and Grand Rapids NWS offices have greatly increased ice amounts. Given the strong upper level system just reaching the Calif coast, concern that upper level sampling of this system may still be lacking, so confidence was not high enough to post a winter storm watch for ice. Otherwise, Sunday will be dry with highs in the 30s. Travel late Saturday and Saturday night may become hazardous depending on weather types and pavement temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Rainer call looking $$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Starting to wonder if this event will have similarities to the 12/28/15 major sleet event. The cold press from the north will be similar and in that event we were coming off an incredibly torchy month. We were more concerned about icing threat and sleet became the much bigger deal except near and south of I-80. Funny I always thought that was the day after Christmas. Type of event you get in a poor winter. 2" of sleet that hangs on until March. Days of looking at dirty sleet with temps in the '20's...I can feel it too. Ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Not gonna jeb walk to see the lake flooding in 33 and rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Rainer call looking $$$$ I'm under a Flood Watch. Call for heavy rain to brief freezing rain and back end thump on track. I'll take that over the sleet fiasco. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I think your back end thump might be more of a dry hump with the defo north into wisc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Rainer call looking $$$$First watch of 2020 is a flood watch for me. Such is life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: I think your back end thump might be more of a dry hump with the defo north into wisc This is the type of storm that very well look like you missed the back end show. Than you get caught by a tail end squall and get your quick 2". Desperate times call for desperate calls. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I hate to break it to you all, but WTC is giving me 6-10 inches of snow as of now so... You're wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Malacka11 said: I hate to break it to you all, but WTC is giving me 6-10 inches of snow as of now so... You're wrong. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I hate to break it to you all, but WTC is giving me 6-10 inches of snow as of now so... You're wrong. I saw that. That's how you drive viewership in the weather game these days. Make sure that 6-10" line cuts through a huge media market. I'm sure mets submitted their forecast, and then told to massage it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baum said: I saw that. That's how you drive viewership in the weather game these days. Make sure that 6-10" line cuts through a huge media market. I'm sure mets submitted their forecast, and then told to massage it. It's a blended/ensemble product that takes all the guidance into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: It's a blended/ensemble product that takes all the guidance into account. Ha. That's another way to make it work! In truth, I was kidding a touch. I trust what Cantore posts from TWC is their legit take. If only..it panned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 If I was here this weekend this would be worth the drive to Milwaukee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, mimillman said: If I was here this weekend this would be worth the drive to Milwaukee nah. too many flooded roads and viaducts......hassle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, mimillman said: If I was here this weekend this would be worth the drive to Milwaukee gonna have p-type issues, would need to go further north or west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Baum said: Ha. That's another way to make it work! In truth, I was kidding a touch. I trust what Cantore posts from TWC is their legit take. If only..it panned out haha yeah I figured you were. 06Z ECMWF held serve with mostly a mix for Chicago and +SN in WI. I tend to think it will perform better with the -PNA and trough digging S just off the West Coast, but a model blend is still reasonable this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 lakeshore flood watch calling for waves to 20', damage could be legit 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 nah. too many flooded roads and viaducts......hassle.Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: gonna have p-type issues, would need to go further north or west Ptype issues in Milwaukee in mid January with a low track over northern Indiana...figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 WAA is always under done, especially with massive troughs like this and i think the low is gonna end up over the southern tip of the lake, Madison still the spot to be IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: WAA is always under done, especially with massive troughs like this and i think the low is gonna end up over the southern tip of the lake, Madison still the spot to be IMO MSN will definitely do well. MTW to SBM is probably the sweet spot with lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 We're thinking sleet will be a much bigger issue in our area. The surface pattern and progged 925 mb cold drain are eerily similar to 12/28/15. Check out the reanalysis page on weather.us to compare to the model consensus for this event. Due to the warm start to the season, the lake is fairly mild for this time of year, so maybe the lakeshore struggles more with p-type. But west of the city, selling the huge ice totals on the verbatim web based outputs. With the surface low strengthening to sub 1000 mb well south of us and nearly 1040 mb high to the north that's an ideal setup to drive the low level cold wedge southward on strong northeasterly flow aloft. Depending on the exact track of the surface low, there could be a potent WAA surge toward Saturday evening that may flip areas back to ZR or even plain rain. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12/28/15 is a solid comp had quite a bit of sleet even here lakeside, i think we are mostly rain this time tho, we'll see either way, my 1.3 call gonna be an lol level low ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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