kevlon62 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just a Metra weekend pass away.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The GFS continues to be much more meh compared to all other guidance.Easy toss candidate there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The 3k NAM doesn't even have a first wave for Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The GFS continues to be much more meh compared to all other guidance. Easy toss candidate there. . just the saddest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: just the saddest model 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 CMC trends SE! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z Canadian significantly backed off with cold side precip. Barely advisory level snows in the deformation area. And not much ice either it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: Will send pics I'm in between Dekalb and Cary so right on the razors edge! I'll start getting more interested in this later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: While a primarily rain event is very much in the cards with a painful miss just north/northwest, it's still well within the envelope of possibility for the deformation snows to nail much of the Chicago metro at this range, particularly I-55 and northwest. As has already been mentioned, there have been important changes in the handling of the southern wave. Also, convection has been known to mess with mass fields of systems, along with the possibility of robbing some of the moisture transport. And there will be a ton of convection south of here with this system. There very well could be an area of warning criteria ice somewhere in interior northern Illinois. However, as laid out in Carlaw's AFD, there are so many points of uncertainty with that aspect of forecast 3 days out. There's reason to doubt huge ice accums with very heavy precip rates forecast, and possibility convection causes more sleet. That said, with the strengthening northerly winds Friday night into Saturday, it won't take huge ice accums to cause significant issues with falling tree limbs and power outages. I am sort of wondering about the ice potential in the LOT area (in a narrow band) as the main low pressure swings into IN. Precip rates look a bit lower then so could at least have more efficient accretion. See NAM after 72 hrs. Tricky situation though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 44 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 12z Canadian significantly backed off with cold side precip. Barely advisory level snows in the deformation area. And not much ice either 36 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: I'm in between Dekalb and Cary so right on the razors edge! I'll start getting more interested in this later today. Actually still dont think this ever materializes into more then cold rain and a little slop on the back end. Really only have the Euro pointing to a significant snowfall. Waiting for it to cave to blah GFS and lack of cold air CMC. The wacky NAM will fall in line last minute with a poof its gone run inside 24 hrs. However recent data: UKMET and GEFS may hold out some hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z GEFS mean continues about a 3-4 run cycle trend now of more cold sector QPF. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Huge waste of today’s cold air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z GEFS mean continues about a 3-4 run cycle trend now of more cold sector QPF. Some good hits in the members for the LOT CWA. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The CMC is currently the only model that has ice (not counting sleet) for a few hours in Cedar Rapids, although with falling temps, it could turn into sleet early. All the other models have either sleet or snow for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z UKMET looks good for backside snow in northern IL and possibly far NW IN. Only basing off surface temps and surface low track from weather.us so someone would have to confirm if that's accurate. 12z run is slightly east of 00z. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 12z UKMET looks good for backside snow in northern IL and possibly far NW IN. Only basing off surface temps and surface low track from weather.us so someone would have to confirm if that's accurate. 12z run is slightly east of 00z. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Implied solid hit for sure. Lots of precip in those timeframes. Question would be any warm layers on the southeast fringe. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Thinking with trends this morning of a more progressive, and therefore more southerly, second wave that it seems fairly likely that the best snow slides southeast of here. If I had to take a stab, Id bet area from Kirksville to Sterling and far SE WI get the best snow. It’s a narrow band in any case, so any additional change in track to the south and we may get shut out entirely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Implied solid hit for sure. Lots of precip in those timeframes. Question would be any warm layers on the southeast fringe. The coarse 850 mb maps on meteocentre unfortunately only go out to 72 hours. It shows >=0C for the entire CWA still at 12z Saturday but would think the CAA would kick in after in earnest based off the surface low track this run has. Clicking back through the 2m temp progs from weather.us would suggest ice/sleet in the northwest 1/3 of the CWA on Friday night into early Saturday. That timeframe early Saturday could corelate to what you mentioned about icing threat extending into Saturday morning prior to sufficient cooling aloft. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The coarse 850 mb maps on meteocentre unfortunately only go out to 72 hours. It shows >=0C for the entire CWA still at 12z Saturday but would think the CAA would kick in after in earnest based off the surface low track this run has. Clicking back through the 2m temp progs from weather.us would suggest ice/sleet in the northwest 1/3 of the CWA on Friday night into early Saturday. That timeframe early Saturday could corelate to what you mentioned about icing threat extending into Saturday morning prior to sufficient cooling aloft. I don't know if it's just me but it seems like the modeled precip type transition zones are lagging behind the surface low a bit more than usual. So that UK track is great for the area but just wonder if mixed precip may hang on longer than it seems, especially east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Haha.... euro just went against the other models and shifted back nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 ride the euro obv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Haha.... euro just went against the other models and shifted back nw. That backside defo would lay a quick few inches in N IL. Nice accums in SE IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: ride the euro obv Just loving the Madison special call. I’m still liking my 1.9” of rain and 1” backside snow. This is going to be some painfully cold rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Done. Good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Haha.... euro just went against the other models and shifted back nw. Naso much. It's less amped than 6z run. Pretty much a compromise between 0z and 6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 after quite a bit of recent experience with heavy rain to backside changeovers, i can say accumulating snow with an inch of standing water is really hard, gonna keep riding the 1.3" rain call and assume no accums here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Non-ICON model consensus of 3-4" qpf around here. Impressive for a January system though as has been mentioned, will have to be mindful of some potential moisture transport robbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Haha.... euro just went against the other models and shifted back nw. Another model with seemingly farther than usual displaced precip type zones. A lot of systems won't have freezing rain into Kenosha when the surface low is around I-70. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Hopefully with the addition of RAOB sampling of the southern wave we get some clarity with the 12z cycle tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 Nearly 4" of QPF into srn Cook this run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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