CoalCityWxMan Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 not all hope is lost (yet) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The precip amounts + snow amounts together for certain areas are kinda crazy. If only all three inches of the precip would be snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: What a tough forecast. So many intricacies to it that we won't have a really good handle on probably til Thursday. I'm not doing the grids and AFD for the storm tonight but we're in good hands with my colleague who is taking it on. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Pretty wild run for parts of the area. As far as ORD, that much rain and that much snow is not easy to pull off in the same storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Pretty wild run for parts of the area. As far as ORD, that much rain and that much snow is not easy to pull off in the same storm. So naturally, it will fall as all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: So naturally, it will fall as all snow. If only... move over 1967 lol. Unfortunately this isn't the one to break that total. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 15 hours ago, mimillman said: Not a bad idea hanging out under the L tracks by the dumpsters, “checking the 700-420mb ΔTʜᴄ” 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 It’ll be interesting to watch how guidance trends, with how the main wave is being handled now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Going to be checking in for that SE trend...fingers crossed. Either way enjoy tracking this one today boys 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It’ll be interesting to watch how guidance trends, with how the main wave is being handled now. . At this point LOT doesnt seem to give NAM solution much weight. Low probability of heavy ice accretion due to several factors. Heavier precip rates, possible convective element producing sleet, wet bulb temps 28-30F and latent heat making it less likely. Looked for lighter ice accums far NW. Low confidence in deformation band swinging through Sat with snow but kept it as possible. Only thing that seems locked in is a lot of cold rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 miss south with heavy rain, miss nw with snow, worst of both worlds solutions proliferating lately 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z NAM continuing the trend of slower and more digging into MX of the main wave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: miss south with heavy rain, miss nw with snow, worst of both worlds solutions proliferating lately You are like the opposite of the LR GFS lol. Alex long range forecasting for Chicago would be about 10 dabs for the entire winter. You know chicago will probably get some snow with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z NAM continuing the trend of slower and more digging into MX of the main wave. . Respectable defo band shown on the backside with it still snowing in N IL at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 the coldest rain^, brutal solution here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The NAM is a real treat for our SE MI peeps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I still think the icing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The precip rates are going to be quite high. The NAM is definitely overdoing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The NAM is a real treat for our SE MI peeps Trees are overrated anyways...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Notice how the high ice shield is continuously moving East on guidance as models slowly trend towards more reasonable amounts given the extremely marginal thermals. I anticipate that high ice shield keeps moving East until it’s gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I still think the icing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The precip rates are going to be quite high. The NAM is definitely overdoing it.The GEM and Euro have also been putting out high ice amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Notice how the high ice shield is continuously moving East on guidance as models slowly trend towards more reasonable amounts given the extremely marginal thermals. I anticipate that high ice shield keeps moving East until it’s gone You getting hyped to watch woodstock get buried while we watch pingers try to accumulate over 1" of standing water? I know I am! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The GEM and Euro have also been putting out high ice amounts. . Yes, but nothing compared to the numbers on the NAM. Even the LOT AFD acknowledged this was likely erroneous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: You getting hyped to watch woodstock get buried while we watch pingers try to accumulate over 1" of standing water? I know I am! Beats trying to guess the next positive pattern change over and over again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: You getting hyped to watch woodstock get buried while we watch pingers try to accumulate over 1" of standing water? I know I am! I’ll be skiing in Colorado, so bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I’ll be skiing in Colorado, so bring it on jelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: You getting hyped to watch woodstock get buried while we watch pingers try to accumulate over 1" of standing water? I know I am! Models showing a the changeover zone basically directly overhead for mby. N half of DKB county buried, S half rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Models showing a the changeover zone basically directly overhead for mby. N half of DKB county buried, S half rainer. Will send pics 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 While a primarily rain event is very much in the cards with a painful miss just north/northwest, it's still well within the envelope of possibility for the deformation snows to nail much of the Chicago metro at this range, particularly I-55 and northwest. As has already been mentioned, there have been important changes in the handling of the southern wave. Also, convection has been known to mess with mass fields of systems, along with the possibility of robbing some of the moisture transport. And there will be a ton of convection south of here with this system. There very well could be an area of warning criteria ice somewhere in interior northern Illinois. However, as laid out in Carlaw's AFD, there are so many points of uncertainty with that aspect of forecast 3 days out. There's reason to doubt huge ice accums with very heavy precip rates forecast, and possibility convection causes more sleet. That said, with the strengthening northerly winds Friday night into Saturday, it won't take huge ice accums to cause significant issues with falling tree limbs and power outages. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 33 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: I still think the icing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The precip rates are going to be quite high. The NAM is definitely overdoing it. True....We were on the freezing rain side of GHD Chicago Blizzard. They issued an icestorm warning and Kasich, (who was our gov at the time), held an emergency new conference to warn of the impending ice disaster. As the rain moved in we started getting some accretion the first hour or two...after that the rain got heavy and in spite of the below freezing temps the heavy rain killed the icestorm. The best icestorms happen with prolonged light rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Models are gradually moving away from a significant storm for Iowa. The ICON had been very robust for eastern Iowa, but now it's just a brief whitening late Friday and then nothing. The timing of the waves is becoming less favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, buckeye said: True....We were on the freezing rain side of GHD Chicago Blizzard. They issued an icestorm warning and Kasich, (who was our gov at the time), held an emergency new conference to warn of the impending ice disaster. As the rain moved in we started getting some accretion the first hour or two...after that the rain got heavy and in spite of the below freezing temps the heavy rain killed the icestorm. The best icestorms happen with prolonged light rain. mostly agree, i think you can overcome heavy rates, even convection, if you are dealing with extremely cold surfaces on the heels of an arctic outbreak (which isn't the case here obv) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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