AWMT30 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 What ever happens here one thing is certain... We are going to get a ton of precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Snowstorms said: If this storm ends up being a rainer, nothing can save this winter. I'd punt it. That's just ridiculous. LMAO, you haven't changed one bit. You know we're at ~22" for the season, which either at or slightly above normal? Going to Aruba tomorrow for a week; enjoy this nonsense. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Quite interestingly the GFS seems to be slightly farther south again, at least so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Those trolling MSP NW calls look lil iffy on the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: LMAO, you haven't changed one bit. You know we're at ~22" for the season, which either at or slightly above normal? Going to Aruba tomorrow for a week; enjoy this nonsense. Haha. More than half that came from Nov and the Dec 2nd event. It's been pretty uneventful since. Anyways, good to have you back. Enjoy your vacation! Aruba is on my list too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Aruba is pretty cool but it’s legit very windy 24/7 like constant 20-30mph with higher gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The assumptions being made when there's still so little we know about the key mid-level features. Amped/NW of course is on the table, but then we have the 12z operational GFS to demonstrate how that northern stream wave could still suppress height fields and compress the flow enough to keep the southern wave farther southeast. We won't have higher confidence on the track and strength of the southern wave itself yet either for a few days. The GEFS has tended to be more amped than the operational, which we'll see shortly if that continues with the 12z. The EPS mean has been pretty close to the op, but that's with a member spread has left room for the amped/northwest track, weaker/southeast and in between. The 06z members had several that were quite similar to the 00z operational snow swath. For the Chicago area, I think a mostly rain miss NW, a good snow (maybe front end ice Friday night for parts) and a miss southeast with the main wave are all still plausible. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Is our standard "omg the spread" phase incoming after a day or so of some quote unquote consistency? One thing is for certain, I am continuously impressed by the atmospheric river that this system will be drawing. Pretty eye-popping in terms of both QPF totals and regional reach! The possibility of a flooding aspect in the OH Valley should not be overlooked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Those trolling MSP NW calls look lil iffy on the GFS. pulls off the elusive rainer / miss south combo, nice sticking with my final call tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z CMC is a rainer for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 24 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Aruba is pretty cool but it’s legit very windy 24/7 like constant 20-30mph with higher gusts Interesting. I know it's an arid climate, which is rare for the Caribbean. Not expecting much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z UK has a cutter.... big snow centered from northern MO to Milwaukee to Traverse City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: The assumptions being made when there's still so little we know about the key mid-level features. Amped/NW of course is on the table, but then we have the 12z operational GFS to demonstrate how that northern stream wave could still suppress height fields and compress the flow enough to keep the southern wave farther southeast. We won't have higher confidence on the track and strength of the southern wave itself yet either for a few days. The GEFS has tended to be more amped than the operational, which we'll see shortly if that continues with the 12z. The EPS mean has been pretty close to the op, but that's with a member spread has left room for the amped/northwest track, weaker/southeast and in between. The 06z members had several that were quite similar to the 00z operational snow swath. For the Chicago area, I think a mostly rain miss NW, a good snow (maybe front end ice Friday night for parts) and a miss southeast with the main wave are all still plausible. The voice of reason. Nothing off the table but it would take a pretty bad luck evolution for the LOT cwa to miss out on impactful snow/ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 55 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: 12z CMC is a rainer for most of us. Once again, with a halfway decent airmass, the subforum would be measuring this system in feet. Unfortunately that isn’t the case with this dogsh*t winter and a great set up goes to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 31 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK has a cutter.... big snow centered from northern MO to Milwaukee to Traverse City. That isn't a cutter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z ICON shows a HUGE sleet axis from KS to WI. 12z CMC shows roughly the same thing except not as pronounced. Very narrow axis of freezing rain in both models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: That isn't a cutter Yes it is. Tracks from the MS Delta, to Terre Haute, to near GRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The voice of reason. Nothing off the table but it would take a pretty bad luck evolution for the LOT cwa to miss out on impactful snow/ice. kiss of death. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 GEFS are ugly, warm and lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Yes it is. Tracks from the MS Delta, to Terre Haute, to near GRR. Ahh see I was always taught that was a Great Lakes Runner, similar to the App Runner just farther west. Then you have your Panhandle Hooks, Miller B and Alberta Clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Ahh see I was always taught that was a Great Lakes Runner, similar to the App Runner just farther west. Then you have your Panhandle Hooks, Miller B and Alberta Clipper Been around doing this for a while now, and have never heard of lakes runner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 da fuk is a great lakes runner ninja'd 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Yes it is. Tracks from the MS Delta, to Terre Haute, to near GRR. Somebody was arguing that a cutter is something that goes more west-east... can't remember if it was nwohweather or someone else. But that is definitely not the typical way it is thought of, even by people outside the region. For instance, the New England crowd would call something going to the Lakes a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Been around doing this for a while now, and have never heard of lakes runner. I had a teacher call it that in college. Basically he called the Cutter a Runner and a Miller B a cutter since it cuts across the GL. So many of these definitions are NE based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just a matter of perspective then? Only get an argument like this on a weather forum, LOL. We are just a bunch of nerds(Never.Ending.Radical.Dudes) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Forum has really shit a brick. Bring back the glory days of 2011. Arguing cutter names lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Thundersnow12 said: Forum has really shit a brick. Bring back the glory days of 2011. Arguing cutter names lol Haha we've hit a stalemate weather wise. Spring & Summer and its severe weather/heat waves/flooding keep it more lively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Ahh see I was always taught that was a Great Lakes Runner, similar to the App Runner just farther west. Then you have your Panhandle Hooks, Miller B and Alberta Clipper I think any system that gains as much latitude as longitude as it heads east could be called a "cutter". Geographic location is irrelevant (unless you are SE of the track, ofc) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, RogueWaves said: I think any system that gains as much latitude as longitude as it heads east could be called a "cutter". Geographic location is irrelevant (unless you are SE of the track, ofc) Eh it's kinda weird though. Especially with Colorado Low/Panhandle Hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Forum has really shit a brick. Bring back the glory days of 2011. Arguing cutter names lol counterpoint - it's finally getting good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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