A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Baum said: ^ not yet. But it has all the earmarks to become that in a tough winter too date. The only thing that brings pause is I have seen alot of these trend south vs north the past couple seasons. I don't think the slp ever wraps up and develops a nice defo like you want to see from a cutter and the initial slug of WAA precip as the trough ejects is going to be rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: I don't think the slp ever wraps up and develops a nice defo like you want to see from a cutter and the initial slug of WAA precip as the trough ejects is going to be rain here The 6z Euro extrapolated certainly would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 yeah i don't see how there is any way we avoid that, those early GFS ice runs were lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: yeah i don't see how there is any way we avoid that, those early GFS ice runs were lol On the bright side, I think it’ll be the coldest rain of the season. That means we’re trending in the right direction, right? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6z Euro jumped NW. First round rain into E. IA. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, mimillman said: On the bright side, I think it’ll be the coldest rain of the season. That means we’re trending in the right direction, right? i'll take a persistent western monster trough and open gulf and roll the dice with the rainers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 If this storm ends up being a rainer, nothing can save this winter. I'd punt it. That's just ridiculous. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 If this storm ends up being a rainer, nothing can save this winter. I'd punt it. That's just ridiculous. The pattern really isn’t all that great, so it wouldn’t be surprising.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The pattern really isn’t all that great, so it wouldn’t be surprising. . Once that trough out west moves further east, and it will eventually, it'll suppress every storm. So yeah, terrible pattern both ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The pattern really isn’t all that great, so it wouldn’t be surprising. . yeah, not sure why anyone would find this marginal setup failing as a sign of anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: i'll take a persistent western monster trough and open gulf and roll the dice with the rainers In A/M/J, please. Not this crap in Dec/Jan then snow at the end of April again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: In A/M/J, please. Not this crap in Dec/Jan then snow at the end of April again. You know it’s going to happen. Winter is only a Nov/Apr phenomenon now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 AGW strikes again on the plus side, it's a fresh year and we can start chasing the wettest all time record again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2020-21 will be rockin' 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Thinking the best way of describing this system is by transition. Wet stuff will fall, lots of it. How the cold transitions this rain to a wintery form of precip, here lies the unknown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Honestly thank God we have not had too much snow to this point, if you had a solid snowpack with this storm approaching the flooding would be near record levels, especially in Indiana and Ohio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 If the 12z NAM were to be extrapolated, it would be rain for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 27 minutes ago, DAFF said: Thinking the best way of describing this system is by transition. Wet stuff will fall, lots of it. How the cold transitions this rain to a wintery form of precip, here lies the unknown. Exactly. This is the hostile pre-Jan 20 pattern. I expected chances thru Jan 20 but the cold will wait til late Jan into Feb. A rain ending as snow scenario would be ok i guess lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: If the 12z NAM were to be extrapolated, it would be rain for all of us. Once the NAM is within 84 hrs you can pretty much lock it in 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 still looks good for wisconsin, especially madison and nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Exactly. This is the hostile pre-Jan 20 pattern. I expected chances thru Jan 20 but the cold will wait til late Jan into Feb. A rain ending as snow scenario would be ok i guess lol ...which was preceeded by the hostile December pattern when talk of the New Year's turn around was all the chatter amongst the weenie class. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: ...which was preceeded by the hostile December pattern when talk of the New Year's turn around was all the chatter amongst the weenie class. It's almost like 06-07 where 80% of that winter happened in February lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 37 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: If the 12z NAM were to be extrapolated, it would be rain for all of us. that Bermuda high at 84 means business 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Exactly. This is the hostile pre-Jan 20 pattern. I expected chances thru Jan 20 but the cold will wait til late Jan into Feb. A rain ending as snow scenario would be ok i guess lolWell I gotta tell ya, the mid-month and beyond pattern isn’t the new hotness. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 With the amount of moisture to work with and models QPF for central/southern IN, there will be some significant flooding. Cue JanetJanet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Snowstorms said: It's almost like 06-07 where 80% of that winter happened in February lol. Which depending on geography, wasn't necessarily saying much. I still have nightmares of that Feb'07 storm... 12" of snow predicted the morning of = .3" of sleet by nightfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: With the amount of moisture to work with and models QPF for central/southern IN, there will be some significant flooding. Cue JanetJanet Man, you guys do NOT need another wet winter into spring. I still couldn't believe all the flooding driving back to Columbus from Marion after my daughter's graduation last May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 solid 30 degree thermal gradient over LOT on the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, buckeye said: Which depending on geography, wasn't necessarily saying much. I still have nightmares of that Feb'07 storm... 12" of snow predicted the morning of = .3" of sleet by nightfall. That winter was hot garbage outside of that one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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