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January 10-11 Severe Weather Threat


DanLarsen34
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1 minute ago, Chargers09 said:

Nasty hook/notch on the leading edge of the tornado warned cell just north of San Antonio.

I was about to mention the storms moving towards the San Antonio and Austin metro areas.  I’m starting to get a little concerned about these storms, especially if they start showing hooks (and velocity couplets) on radar as you mentioned.

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Maybe the severe weather will ramp up soon in far northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas, including the current tornado warning at Woodland TX/ Red River area. Otherwise... 30 severe reports so far would be a very low # of severe reports if things don't get active.

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Just now, BrandonC_TX said:

I was about to mention the storms moving towards the San Antonio and Austin metro areas.  I’m starting to get a little concerned about these storms, especially if they start showing hooks (and velocity couplets) on radar as you mentioned.

Not sure if it picked up on an extra boundary (or outflow) but yeah, seeing a lot of small hooks and kinks in the line now.

 

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2 minutes ago, Chargers09 said:

Looks like the southern portion is racing ahead so that part should. I'm in north central SA, watching closely. 

There seems to be a weak area of rotation East of Castroville and moving towards US 90 and West Loop 1604, nothing impressive though.  Will need to watch how it interacts with the outflow though.

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PDS warning

HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...  
  CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 845 PM CST.  
      
* AT 752 PM CST, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
  OVER MIDWAY IN LOGAN COUNTY, OR 10 MILES EAST OF PARIS, MOVING   
  NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS TORNADO IS HEADED DIRECTLY AT THE   
  COMMUNITIES OF SCRANTON AND CLARKSVILLE...SEEK COVER IMMEDIATELY!  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  

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It’s very unstable ahead of main line with excellent shear. As forcing increases farther East I would watch the next 1-2 hours for discrete development. It’s still relatively early in this event...biggest potential was never really until a bit later on. Outflow from this line could be a major focal point moving through these next several plus hours 

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16 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

No wonder....helicity is huge in Arkansas....up to 550 and 750.  Yikes!

Yes but storm mode is still "grungy" as it has been most of the day

once it starts that way it's hard to snap out of it..many outbreaks I have followed underachieved  because of it

 

 

80kt  kt LLJ later may have a surprise or two

 

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Yes but storm mode is still "grungy" as it has been most of the day

once it starts that way it's hard to snap out of it..many outbreaks I have followed underachieved  because of it

 

 

80kt  kt LLJ later may have a surprise or two

 

That's about what I expected for today based on some of the issues I saw in forecast soundings. Storms have been intermittently severe with a few confirmed tornadoes, none particularly long-lasting or violent-potential-appearing (in contrast, to, say the 62-mile track beast of December 16th).

Not that warnings shouldn't be taken seriously, especially at night.

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