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January 10-11 Severe Weather Threat


DanLarsen34
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From SPC meso discussion

SUMMARY...Upscale growing and organizing convection will pose
   increasing potential for damaging wind gusts and a few embedded
   tornadoes through 4-6 PM CST.  Potential for more discrete
   supercells, which could pose a risk for a strong tornado or two, may
   become maximized near Paris TX, and surrounding areas of southeast
   Oklahoma/northeast Texas.

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about 45 min ago

 

147 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW EL DORADO SPRINGS  37.83N 94.09W  
01/10/2020                   VERNON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT    
  
            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED IN THIS AREA. LE   
            REPORTS HOUSES DAMAGED BY POSSIBLE TORNADO.   
            TIME BASED ON RADAR.   
  

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CON.KSGF.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200110T2100Z/  
POLK MO-  
241 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR  
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...  
          
AT 240 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIR PLAY, OR 8  
MILES NORTHWEST OF BOLIVAR, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  

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PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020     ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CST FOR WEST   CENTRAL ADAIR AND EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES...     AT 253 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF   CHEROKEE LANDING STATE PARK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.     HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.     SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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Latest SPC thinking for TX area


   Heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum transfer may
   support primarily an increasing risk for potentially damaging
   surface gusts, as low-level hodographs tend to become more
   unidirectional with the approach of the convective line.  Largest
   clockwise-curved low-level hodographs are forecast to remain focused
   east of the line, where at least isolated discrete supercell
   development is possible and seems to offer the best potential for
   tornado development.  This may become maximized near/southwest of
   the Paris TX area by around 6 PM CST.

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10 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Cells east of the squall line in TX seem to be struggling quite a bit 

mini SUPS in the WAA  may be trying to form and may move over the extreme eastern part of the metroplex (Kaufman county) and points east

storms to the SW seem to be trying to merge into lines...but may still be semi discrete for a bit as they move into the Metro plex

 

in any event prepare for the radar hole tracking between Dallas and SHV

 

 

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9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

mini SUPS in the WAA  may be trying to form and may move over the extreme eastern part of the metroplex (Kaufman county) and points east

 

 

 

 TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  EAST CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTH CENTRAL NAVARRO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 515 PM CST.  
      
* AT 423 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR CORSICANA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. 

 

and a cell SW of Metroplex

 

  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOMERVELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN ERATH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTHWESTERN BOSQUE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 515 PM CST.  
      
* AT 424 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR HICO, OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAMILTON, MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  

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