weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Moderate risk to be expanded farther east with the new outlook. Seems like there is pretty good agreement across guidance that the greatest overall tornado threat may be across southeast OK into northeast TX...though I still would watch out across southeastern TX...I'm not totally sold either that there isn't more discrete than what is currently shown...there are some hints at it but nothing glaring. The damaging wind threat though is looking pretty legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 It seems like the biggest discrete supercell tornado threat this afternoon will be initially near I-35 from central TX northward into Oklahoma. We may get a cell or two a bit further east in TX but it's much more conditional. More concerning is the latest HRRR which show a nasty QLCS moving through NE TX, while a string of cells forms ahead of the line near the TX-LA border. Those could be our dangerous nocturnal tornado producers, aside from the QLCS itself. It wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of people start crying bust by 7-8 pm and the main show begins shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, cstrunk said: It seems like the biggest discrete supercell tornado threat this afternoon will be initially near I-35 from central TX northward into Oklahoma. We may get a cell or two a bit further east in TX but it's much more conditional. More concerning is the latest HRRR which show a nasty QLCS moving through NE TX, while a string of cells forms ahead of the line near the TX-LA border. Those could be our dangerous nocturnal tornado producers, aside from the QLCS itself. It wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of people start crying bust by 7-8 pm and the main show begins shortly thereafter. Yeah this is something to definitely watch and I think hi-res models are starting to hint more and more at this possibility. Given the environment you would think outflow from the QLCS could be vigorous enough to produce updrafts out ahead of it. I think there are two windows here for tornadic supercells...initially (or early on in the game) and then again moving into the overnight...especially with the nocturnal increase in the LLJ...this coincides with another burst of instability (due to increasing llvl theta-e). Could be a long night from SE TX into LA and perhaps even as far north as AR (in terms of tornadoes). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12z sounding out of DFW...yikes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Updated SPC image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 That significant tornado contour is massive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, mob1 said: That significant tornado contour is massive And populous. Over 10 million folks in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I wouldn't sleep on southern MO either...wouldn't be shocked to see probs expanded farther north...maybe ENH into southern MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 48 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 12z sounding out of DFW...yikes What month is it again? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think it's possible the mdt extends west into Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: 12z sounding out of DFW...yikes Yeah, that is a lot less 850-500mb veer-back than was shown in most NAM forecast soundings 24-36 hours ago. Much more favorable wind profile in the low to mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Yeah, that is a lot less 850-500mb veer-back than was shown in most NAM forecast soundings 24-36 hours ago. Much more favorable wind profile in the low to mid levels. Much cleaner look for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Already have breaks in the low level clouds at my location in Longview, TX. Will be something to watch - if we can get temperatures higher than forecast it will up the ante a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 It’s safe to say the soundings in the latest model runs are quite ominous. Have to wonder if the SPC upgrades tornado probabilities in Texas in the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said: It’s safe to say the soundings in the latest model runs are quite ominous. Have to wonder if the SPC upgrades tornado probabilities in Texas in the next update. At bare minimum the 15/hatched should extend to DFW this next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 If we see an upgrade to high risk b/c of tornado probs this is the area I'm thinking. Latest guidance really hammering in on this area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: If we see an upgrade to high risk b/c of tornado probs this is the area I'm thinking. Latest guidance really hammering in on this area You could probably extend that further into AR if you believe that latest HRRR trends. The Super Tuesday analogue seems less comical now than it did a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob's Burgers said: You could probably extend that further into AR if you believe that latest HRRR trends. The Super Tuesday analogue seems less comical now than it did a few days ago Yeah definitely couldn't rule out a farther expansion of that area...especially if you want to consider the damaging wind aspect...I sorta focused more on tornado probs but if I were to include winds it would have been much bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If we see an upgrade to high risk b/c of tornado probs this is the area I'm thinking. Latest guidance really hammering in on this area Even if they don't go with a high risk their will probably be a PDS tornado watch for that area in the late evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, METALSTORM said: Even if they don't go with a high risk their will probably be a PDS tornado watch for that area in the late evening agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 41 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said: that supports an upgrade to high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1630 out early, little change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: 1630 out early, little change. I'm surprised they didn't extend the moderate west that cap is modeled to be gone by 18Z. Once they start firing up around 18-19Z it won't be long until those are warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 In East Texas the schools are all canceling basketball games or moving them up to earlier today. I don't recall ever seeing that for anything other than snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 And it has started. Two tornado warnings now up in central Oklahoma, one near Prague and one near Atwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 some clearing over NE OK. SW MO.. RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 600 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF TORNADOES AS THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Good CAPE, helicity and dews moving northward in that just issued tornado watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Clouds are socked in pretty good now across the TX/LA threat region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Good CAPE, helicity and dews moving northward in that just issued tornado watch area. 60-63 dews across far SW Missouri with clearing skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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